Black Widow anticipation thread

[JD]

Yeah, from what little I know about them, all most investors seem to care about is getting as much money as they possibly can, right now, this minute, without really considering the future.
I have mixed feeling on this, on one hand I would love to get the movies early at home, but taking movies that have already been set for next year away from theaters, is pretty much going to kill them.

 

[Saul]

Black Widow could make a billion at the box office, could it make as much on Disney Plus? Pushing the release dates back are already hurting cinemas big time, removing the film from cinemas would be disastrous. Even if they release the movies on Disney plus now we'd still have a gap year without marvel movies as production has been delayed on everything because of Covid.

 

[theenglish]

It also needs to be seen how long it will take for people to trust movie theatres again. At this point it may be several years before the pandemic passes and people feel comfortable going to the movies again. The studios are going to have to make a choice about how they want to produce and release movies but I cannot see the same mega Blockbuster numbers happening any time soon.

 

[Skywalker]

I love the MCU but I wouldn't pay $30 to stream Black Widow as soon as it became available. I'd rather wait until it comes out in theaters, or until it becomes available on Disney+ under my normal subscription.

 

[1987SpaceGuy]

Happy waiting then I suppose. (I'm not questioning the not paying extra on top of the streaming service part)

the studios are looking for the same demand and $ as in the before times.
the big problem: It simply won't be there for a long time if ever again, at least in the old way (movie theaters).

Even if there is one day a working cure with the no bad side effects, it will need to be mass produced, distributed, applied on a global scale, before the bigger part of the audience has to be convinced to return. Then the movie theaters still need to be around in numbers too, which is doubtful by itself.

A lot of unknowns and if's rather than moving forward, biting the bullet for the few big budget productions that were already done and are affected, then adapting future projects and budgets to match the new normal.

 

[Saul]

A lot of unknowns.
Let's say you did release it to Disney Plus. Disney Plus is not available in every country. It's definitely not available in China where a large portion of profit is waiting. In some countries the covid 19 situation isn't as bad and theaters are open so maybe they could release it in theaters in those countries and Disney plus. But now Europe is hit hard again by the virus so they won't make the same international money in theaters as Tenet did.
Worst of all, if you put it on disney plus there will be a pristine copy to pirate not long after that. I could understand biting the bullet on 'Coming to America 2' and 'Bill and Ted' but Black Widow, Wonder Woman, the big hitters? No way. They tested the waters with 'Mulan', it wasn't enough.

 

[1987SpaceGuy]

Disney+ is one of the streaming services with the largest reach internationally. Ciao from Italy
Strike a one time or partnership streaming deal for wherever they aren't yet. Either gets them guaranteed or a certain percentage income.
There is zero $ from movie theaters wherever fall and winter is, if they are even open or allowed, both of which are doubtful in itself.
Where would humankind be, if we gave up after the 1st attempt... Anyway let's hope we don't have to wait years to watch it.

 

[Grendelsbayne]

There is zero money from theaters this fall and winter. If the vaccines pan out, next fall and winter will quite possibly be a different story and if so will probably make way more money than the D+ strategy even if they make less than they would have before than pandemic and even taking into account the idea that D+ would've had a long time to sell it by then.

 

[JD]

Not completely zero, a lot of things have been open for the last few months. My mom and I went to see Tenet back in September, and it was us and about 8 people spread throughout the theater.

 

[Grendelsbayne]

Not completely zero, a lot of things have been open for the last few months. My mom and I went to see Tenet back in September, and it was us and about 8 people spread throughout the theater.

Tenet is a highly anticipated, 200 million dollar budget blockbuster that's grossed a mere 50 million US box office in over *seven weeks*.

Under current conditions, Tenet will not make a profit from US* theaters even if it stays in theaters for months upon months to come. Zero dollars.

*It has done quite well overseas, I guess there are enough countries still able to go to the movies safely somehow. Although foreign box office is always fundamentally less valuable to Hollywood than domestic box office.

 

[The Wormhole]

Although foreign box office is always fundamentally less valuable to Hollywood than domestic box office.

I'm not sure that's really the case anymore. There have been several movies in recent years that did poorly in the domestic box office but did well enough overseas to justify a sequel.

 

[EnderAKH]

I'm not sure that's really the case anymore. There have been several movies in recent years that did poorly in the domestic box office but did well enough overseas to justify a sequel.

Pacific Rim, Now You See Me, two examples off of the top of my head.

 

[The Wormhole]

Pacific Rim, Now You See Me, two examples off of the top of my head.

There's also 2018's Tomb Raider which got greenlit for a sequel, though then the pandemic got in the way.

 

[fireproof78]

I'm not sure that's really the case anymore. There have been several movies in recent years that did poorly in the domestic box office but did well enough overseas to justify a sequel.

Yeah. Pretty sure overseas has become equally as important.

 

[Mr. Adventure]

The last Fast and Furious movie made $226M domestically (insular terms I know...) which is nothing to sneeze at but made $1B more internationally.

 

[JD]

I can't remember where, but I read a story that said that China was the biggest money making country for movies this year. Not surprising given the pandemic, but still noteworthy. It's already been catching up to us lately, so it still might have happened at some point even if there was no pandemic.

 

[Grendelsbayne]

^I'm not saying foreign box office is unimportant or incapable of carrying a movie, even to a sequel. The point is simply that foreign box office brings less money per ticket than domestic box office to the studio, so a movie that does 500m overseas and 400m domestic is just not as big a success for the studio as a movie that does 500m domestic and 400m overseas. 900m worldwide is never a thing to sneeze at, obviously, but not every 900m is equal.

And in the case of Tenet specifically, we're talking about 50 million domestic over seven weeks (compare that to Interstellar or Inception, which are the obvious benchmarks for Tenet, which both made around or above 50m domestic on their opening weekend). And in the same period of time, about 280m foreign, which is much better than the domestic, but is not as good for the studio as it would've been to have 280m domestic.

And even without being able to say exactly how much that 280m foreign really translates to compared to the domestic, the movie still hasn't even broken even worldwide. 205m budget means it needs roughly 410m gross to actually start making a profit.

 

[Captaindemotion]

I really could never understand Nolan’s insistence on releasing Tenet when it was released.

 

[Takeru]

Black Widow could make a billion at the box office, could it make as much on Disney Plus?

No, but Disney also doesn't have to share the revenue with theaters when they release on Disney+, so a movie wouldn't need to make close to a billion for Disney to generate the same profit. In the US the studios get about 50% from the box office, less overseas, between 20 and 40%, let's say 30%. For simplicity's sake let's assume the studio gets 40% of the worldwide box office, so from a billion dollar box office only 400 million go to Disney and that's a slightly more reasonable number, still not easy to reach with streaming but slightly more realistic than a billion.
And depending on how long the pandemic lasts at some point some money via streaming will be be more desirable than zero money from the box office, the studios can't sit on all of their big movies forever.

Under current conditions, Tenet will not make a profit from US* theaters even if it stays in theaters for months upon months to come. Zero dollars.

*It has done quite well overseas, I guess there are enough countries still able to go to the movies safely somehow. Although foreign box office is always fundamentally less valuable to Hollywood than domestic box office.

It made 280 million overseas, that's not even enough to cover the production budget if we assume WB got about $85 million from that plus about $25 million from the US. Tenet's theatrical release was a financial disaster, there's no way to call it anything else.

 

[Saul]

No, but Disney also doesn't have to share the revenue with theaters when they release on Disney+, so a movie wouldn't need to make close to a billion for Disney to generate the same profit. In the US the studios get about 50% from the box office, less overseas, between 20 and 40%, let's say 30%. For simplicity's sake let's assume the studio gets 40% of the worldwide box office, so from a billion dollar box office only 400 million go to Disney and that's a slightly more reasonable number, still not easy to reach with streaming but slightly more realistic than a billion.
And depending on how long the pandemic lasts at some point some money via streaming will be be more desirable than zero money from the box office, the studios can't sit on all of their big movies forever.

I think if Disney was confident it could make it's money that way we would have seen it already. Again, Disney plus isn't everywhere so they'd lose out on markets like China. The money 'Avengers Endgame' made wasn't just from solo viewings so it's difficult to equate Box office with a Disney plus release because people can watch the movie as much as they want at no extra cost. Also, what happens to the money from home/digital/blu ray releases? That's another 50 million gone because people will already own the film. Putting it directly on a streaming service isn't enough for them.