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Avatar Golden Globe win mean an Oscar breakthrough for SF?

Really? Precious seemed to be getting a lot of critical acclaim and support up until the Golden Globes. I didn't really see The Hurt Locker or Up in the Air as real contenders, and still don't, even though both are terrific films and I would love to see either win Best Picture at the Oscars. I don't think either have a chance before Avatar, though.
There are a multitude of critics organizations - most importantly the New York Film Critics Circle and Los Angeles Film Critics Association - that have annual film awards. If there are one or two films that dominate in winning Best Picture awards from the critics organizations then those films become prohibitive favorites for Best Picture at the Oscars. Precious has a lot of critical acclaim, and it's been on a lot of Top 10 lists, but it hasn't been winning Best Picture awards. The Hurt Locker and Up in the Air, on the other hand, have been raking in Best Picture wins from the critics. The Hurt Locker won Best Picture and Best Director from the New York and Los Angeles Critics.
 
I don't think Avatar was rubbish. It may not be the groundbreaking revolution of a film the media claims it is, but I enjoyed it. It reminded me of The Abyss, one of my favourite films of my childhood.
 
Well, I would love to see The Hurt Locker win, even despite its episodic plot structure. Same goes for Up in the Air, which I thought was much superior to Juno and I think is Jason Reitman's best film to date. I still think Avatar is the frontrunner to win Best Picture and Best Director now, and I will be genuinely surprised if it doesn't win both at the Oscars.

Also, another thing. It is interesting to note that Avatar seems to be winning the main awards, and most likely will win a lot of the technical awards at the Oscars. And similar to Return of the King, it has not been nominated for any Best Acting awards. Of course we don't know yet the nominations for the Oscars, but I sense history repeating itself here. I think the main acting categories will end up getting awarded to other performances (such as Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart or Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side, as much as that makes me cringe) while Avatar takes away the big ones.
 
I think this is going to be a year where all of the acting awards go to performances in films other than the Best Picture winner. My guess at this point is Jeff Bridges will win Best Actor for Crazy Heart, Meryl Streep Best Actress for Julie & Julia, Christoph Waltz Best Supporting Actor for Inglorious Basterds, and Mo'Nique Best Supporting Actress for Precious. Best Actress is the acting category that's toughest to predict this year. Streep will have stiff competition from Carey Mulligan for An Education, and Gabourey Sidibe and Sandra Bullock are in with a chance for Precious and The Blind Side respectively, too.
 
On the BAFTA "best film" category I count 5 skiffy films, which must be some kind of record.

linky
 
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Best Actress is the acting category that's toughest to predict this year. Streep will have stiff competition from Carey Mulligan for An Education, and Gabourey Sidibe and Sandra Bullock are in with a chance for Precious and The Blind Side respectively, too.

I very much agree. I think Streep could win based on past performance and based on the strength of two of her performances last year, but I also agree that Carey Mulligan and Sandra Bullock will also be stiff competition. I would love for an underdog such as Carey Mulligan, who delivered a great leading performance in An Education, or Gabourey Sidibe to win and edge out frontrunners Streep & Bullock, but I think it'll be a true battle between Streep & Bullock for Best Actress.
 
I really hope to hell it doesn't actually win Best Picture, but I wouldn't be opposed to a nomination. I'm not sure why, but I somehow have it into my head that an Oscar win for Avatar would do more to harm Science Fiction than help it. I really have no clue as to where that opinion comes from. I thought the movie was extraordinary as a spectacle but wholly lacking as a film with any kind of decent story, further hurt by what I thought were mostly lackluster, uninteresting performances.

I just don't really want to see that kind of thing score Best Picture. I don't like it when the so-called prestigious films pull it off, and I think I would be even more annoyed if Avatar won and people were willing to overlook it's flaws because it's a genre picture and had a really stunning light show going for it.

I'm not sure that makes any sense.
 
I don't think Precious has much of a shot at winning Best Picture. Same goes for Inglorious Basterds. The winner is highly likely to be one of three films: The Hurt Locker, Up in the Air, or Avatar - in that order of likelihood. Anything else would be a major upset.

Really? Precious seemed to be getting a lot of critical acclaim and support up until the Golden Globes. I didn't really see The Hurt Locker or Up in the Air as real contenders, and still don't, even though both are terrific films and I would love to see either win Best Picture at the Oscars.

Precious peaked early... But THL and UITA has been winning pretty much every critics awards so far. Precious just doesn't have the heat anymore. It will only win for supporting actress.
 
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I really think both Sharlto Copley and Sam Rockwell deserve acting noms for their respective Sci-Fi films. They both did amazing jobs ...and now that I think about it its interesting how similar their roles where.
 
Avatar's success means Star Trek XI's Oscar chances are doomed. If there are any sci fi films on the Best Picture nominees, they'll probably just give the nomination to Avatar, as the sole representative of its genre. Snobs. I think STXI, Moon, and District 9 should be on there as well. Award ceremonies are just a big popularity contest, anyway.

Star Trek may get a nomination. I'd be thrilled if it did.
 
It is actually quite possible that both District 9 and Star Trek will join Avatar as a BP nominee. District 9 is more likely (I would bet on it at this point, it has a lot of support), but Trek could as well.

All 3 made the PGA (Producers Guild) nominations, which is a *very good* indicator for Academy nomination.

Never give up, never surrender! ;)
 
Well, neither Avatar or Star Wars are particularly good beyond what you see visually.

That's by far the most important component to this kind of film. People who critique and respond to motion pictures primarily based on the narrative content are missing most of the point; popular reviewers are granted an exception because it's what they're paid to do but the better ones have been known to let their actual taste and love for movies occasionally overrun their professional obligation. :lol:
 
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