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Avatar Golden Globe win mean an Oscar breakthrough for SF?

2

23skidoo

Admiral
Admiral
Yeah I know everyone here (almost everyone, at least) would have rather seen Star Trek get the Golden Globe for Best Drama last night, and not everyone is in love with Avatar (I haven't seen it yet as my eyesight is too bad to get the 3-D effect so I need to wait till the 2-D version shows up, so I have no opinion one way or the other). There might even have been other SF films more deserving (Moon comes to mind).

Still, it's not often a SF takes the big prize at the Golden Globes, which leads me to wonder if Avatar might be the breakout film for SF at the Oscars. We've had fantasy films win Best Picture before - Return of the King, of course, as well as Around the World in 80 Days back in the 50s. And we've had several SF films nominated, including the first Star Wars, ET, and Raiders of the Lost Ark. But there has never been a full-out SF film win Best Picture. (I don't even know if a SF film has ever won the Best Drama GG either, now I think about it.)

So what do you think? Does Avatar's win make it a shoo-in for the Oscars, or do you think the Best Picture voters will go for something a little more standard like, say, Up in the Air?

My personal feeling: a nomination is guaranteed, but in the end the SF bias will continue and one of the smaller films will win, with Avatar possibly getting a special Oscar for technology. But it would be nice to see Avatar get Best Picture only because I'd like to see a SF film win for once. If Star Trek gets the prize, I'd be over the moon. But just as Carey Mulligan is no longer the sure bet for Best Actress thanks to Sandra Bullock, we can't bet money on Trek anymore now there's a new flavor that people are raving about...

Alex
 
While I think Avatar deserves Best Picture at the Oscars if for anything the sheer amount of work and talent and creativity involved...the same reason Return of The King deserved it and Titanic deserved it...I don't think it will repeat its Golden Globe performance. I think there's going to be a big backlash against it any day now...more than what you see people hating about here. I actually think there's going to be a backlash against it because of...this is gonna' sound ridiculous...the situation in Haiti.

I'm serious.
 
Avatar was not my favourite movie or favourite sci-fi movie from last year, but it is one I really enjoyed, so yeah, sure, why not? I'd be comfortable with it winning. Yes, I'd prefer it if Moon, say, won, but I'm only ticked at wins for movies I didn't like.

T'Baio said:
I actually think there's going to be a backlash against it because of...this is gonna' sound ridiculous...the situation in Haiti.

I'm serious.
Click to expand...

I don't understand. Is it because Zoe Saldana is Dominician? Earthquakes prove mother nature sucks? What? This just seems a very out of left field comparison to make to me.

23skidoo said:
We've had fantasy films win Best Picture before - Return of the King, of course, as well as Around the World in 80 Days back in the 50s. And we've had several SF films nominated, including the first Star Wars, ET, and Raiders of the Lost Ark.
Click to expand...
Raiders is fantasy rather than SF. Crystal Skull is another story, I suppose.

My personal feeling: a nomination is guaranteed,
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Absolutely. That's the point of the ten film nomination, so that big budget films can get the nod without squeezing out notable indies and critically acclaimed stuff. It'll ensure people are watching Oscar night to see if Avatar gets the statute, while those who were Dark Knight hopefuls got shunted off earlier.

Whether it'll win is another question. It depends on where the momentum goes as far as the critically acclaimed small films are - is Up in the Air the front runner now? Or is it Hurt Locker? And so on.

I think it'd be fair to say that Avatar's success has sealed Trek's doom; it's just not going to get the Oscar because the votes for any sci-fi blockbuster are going Cameron's way.
 
My guess is that The Hurt Locker will win Best Picture at the Oscars, and that Kathryn Bigelow will be the first woman to win Best Director.

Star Trek never had a shot at winning Best Picture, not at the Globes nor at the Oscars, regardless of whether Avatar was in the mix or not. The same goes for Moon. And if there were still only five Best Picture nominees at the Oscars then Star Trek wouldn't have a chance at a nomination either, but with the Best Picture category expanded to ten nominees it just might pull off a nomination.
 
Kegg said:
T'Baio said:
I actually think there's going to be a backlash against it because of...this is gonna' sound ridiculous...the situation in Haiti.

I'm serious.
Click to expand...

I don't understand. Is it because Zoe Saldana is Dominician? Earthquakes prove mother nature sucks? What? This just seems a very out of left field comparison to make to me.
Click to expand...

I think the cries of simplicity are going to ramp up for one, but I also think there'll be a subtle smear campaign regarding the amount of money it's made the studio and Cameron himself, and whether this massive movie is worth all its money when there's so much strife in the world. Already last night, during Cameron's acceptance speech, when he started talking about the best job in the world, how important to entertain people it is, and how everyone should just pat themselves on the back for doing such an important job, I felt there was a "get over yourself" vibe in the room. Totally imagined by me, yes, but the crowd seemed unreceptive to Cameron.

Basically, I think because of what's going on in Haiti and how it's become the celebre cause du jour, whenever someone talks about Avatar, which will mainly be about how much money it's made, people are gonna' start shrugging and saying; "it's only a movie." That will enter the Academy's voting consciousness and they'll vote for something else.
 
T'Baio said:
Basically, I think because of what's going on in Haiti and how it's become the celebre cause du jour, whenever someone talks about Avatar, which will mainly be about how much money it's made, people are gonna' start shrugging and saying; "it's only a movie." That will enter the Academy's voting consciousness and they'll vote for something else.
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I think that's unduly alarmist (and what else could they vote for? What movie is not only a movie?) but we'll see.
 
Kegg said:
(and what else could they vote for? What movie is not only a movie?)
Click to expand...

They'll prefer to vote for something they feel is more enriching of our emotional selves. I'm thinking Crazy Heart is gonna' come from behind.
 
The people who do the voting in the Academy put a lot more emphasis on the "art" of small films that enrich our emotional lives vs. that of "escapist, blockbuster product," no matter how good it is. One is just a movie, the other is "cinema."

As for Crazy Heart, did you see the standing ovation Jeff Bridges got last night when he won Best Actor?
 
T'Baio said:
As for Crazy Heart, did you see the standing ovation Jeff Bridges got last night when he won Best Actor?
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Since when I do I watch the Golden Globes? Or the Academy Awards, for that matter...

But anyway, all I've heard about it is it'll get a likely win for Jeff as Best Actor. That doesn't seem to threaten Avatar at all as I doubt any of its performers were up for acting nods.

Jeff as best actor need not translate to best picture, no?
 
I'm all on for a Sci-Fi movie winning Best Picture...when it deserves it. In my opinion, Avatar doesn't.
 
Actually, the film that opened the doors for SF/Fantasy bigtime Oscardom was LotR: RotK.

It was the last Oscar show I ever watched.
 
Fucking double post, and I only clicked once. The second time this happens. Sorry, people.
 
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CommanderRaytas said:
Actually, the film that opened the doors for SF/Fantasy bigtime Oscardom was LotR: RotK.

It was the last Oscar show I ever watched.
Click to expand...

It was the last one that was REALLY worth watching. And, yeah, RotK should be credited as the true "breakthrough" for SF&F. I think winning 11 out of 11 Oscars would be enough to validate any movie genre in the Academy's eyes.
 
I pray that Bridges wins the Oscar. He's one of my fave actors of all time, he's personally a great guy, and he's long overdue.

I'm not sure of Avatar will give more respect to SF per se. But it will have a large impact on BIG movies, whether they be SF or no. Audiences will want these films to be entertainment experiences, not just movies. This means better, more immersive FX, and more 3D visuals. I myself have been telling people that this isn't a movie you rent, it's a movie you have to go to.
 
23skidoo said:
which leads me to wonder if Avatar might be the breakout film for SF at the Oscars. We've had fantasy films win Best Picture before - Return of the King, of course,
Click to expand...

CommanderRaytas said:
Actually, the film that opened the doors for SF/Fantasy bigtime Oscardom was LotR: RotK.
Click to expand...
Eh?

Anyway, while ROTK is a SF&F film that took away the Oscar, it's still true that Avatar, if it won, would be the first science fiction film to get the Oscar, which I think is what skidoo is saying here. Granted, you could say the distinction is meaningless either to the Oscar voters or to us - Avatar is very much on the fantasy end of the sci-fi spectrum, after all - but that interesting tidbit is still there.
 
T'Baio said:
I'm thinking Crazy Heart is gonna' come from behind.
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The chances of Crazy Heart winning Best Picture are pretty much zero. There's a pattern to these things, and the Best Picture Oscar winner always scores a lot of Best Picture nods from the the multitude of awards that precede the Oscars. Crazy Heart hasn't scored any nominations for Best Picture to date.
 
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