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Australian Heatwave

Tasmanians would be buggered if they had to cope with a heatwave in the 40s as most homes down here don't have airconditioning.

We had temperatures in the 40s last week, and a string of days in the high 30s. Thursday last week, a 70 year temperature record was shattered. A day later, the previous day's record is shattered. How is that not a heatwave?

Just because it's always cold in Hobart, doesn't mean the whole state freezes ;)

Before last week Hobart held the record for the highest temperature (40.8C).

Tasmania occasionally gets temperatures in the 40s but it usually is only for one or two days so it cannot really be described as a heatwave. I think that there has only been a handful of times when temperatures have been over 35C for three days in a row.

Besides when I posted that comment (Jan 28 - 11 days ago) Northern Tasmania had not had three days of high temperatures yet so up to then I was right with what I said (if I remember correctly the hot days where from 28-30 January).

Also over the entire year average temperatures in Hobart are warmer than those in Launceston.

Yeah sorry, I didn't see that this thread was five pages and that you posted that comment nearly two weeks ago. Oops (where's the embarassed smiley?)
 
It isn't Australia ever worst natural disaster. The Mathina Cyclone of 1889 claimed about 400 lives. I suppose it can be claimed to be worst natural disaster since Federation (if you exclude pandemics and heatwaves).

I believe that death toll is now at 126.
 
Now up to 131.

there's talk of a Royal Commission into what went wrong. I dunno. There should definitely be better plans for this kind of emergency, but maybe what's really needed a better way of anticipating when such an event will happen, an equivalent of storm monitoring and storm warnings.

Terrible day, really terrible.
 
I gather that one of the problems is that no bushfire disaster plan for Victoria was modelled on expecting temperatures reaching temperatures of over 45C. Becuae such temperatures hadn't occured over such vast area of Victoria before no-one could foretell exactly what would happen and the models broke down.
 
Another issue was internet and fire reports stated that the fires were minor brush fires, which then became major fires and engulfed the towns. So the rate of data pick-up and relaying to web sources and news outlets will have to be improved also.
 
The death-toll in St. Andrews has risen to 22. Between that and the Kinglake fatalities, I still have no idea how many of the good people I used to know up that way are still living - indeed it may take some time to confirm one way or the other.
 
I would like to draw people to an article that has appeared on the New Scientist webppage. It was wriiten be Racel Nowak, the Australasan editor

Saturday morning in Melbourne, Australia. We hunkered down at home, with blinds drawn to keep the extreme weather out, every so often peeking out the window to see where the garden thermometer had got to.

By midday the thermometer showed 40 °C. As it climbed relentlessly to 41, 42, 43, 44, reaching 47 by teatime, excitement quickly shifted to foreboding. Humidity was low too: a mere 4% - making your skin prickle - compared to a more usual 30%. Add fierce, hot winds that whipped at the windows, and you will have an idea of the "perfect storm" conditions that led to what may be the worst bushfires in Australia's history.

At the time of writing, the army has been called in to help fight bushfires still burning out of control, over 700 homes have been destroyed - many in Melbourne's commuter belt - and more than 330,000 hectares burnt.

The official death toll stands at 131; and untold numbers of people are homeless, injured or missing.

Australia has a national fire-preparedness policy, perhaps uniquely, of encouraging people to either "stay and defend or leave early". But as the tragedy continues to unfurl there will be increasing pressure to reexamine a policy developed for conditions that existed half a century ago.

The rationale behind the policy is that if you have a fire plan in place - that is, you have a water source, a pump that is not dependent on the power supply, you have ember-proofed your house, and so on - it is safer to stay and let the front pass over, than to leave at the last moment. And historically, it is true that most houses lost in bush fires have burnt because of defendable ember-strikes rather than direct contact with the fire, and most deaths have been due last-minute evacuations.

But conditions have changed. Southern Australia's epic 12-year drought, higher temperatures due to climate change, and less "prescribed" burning to remove the plant life that acts as fuel, all combine to increase the risk of extreme fire. This year already, we've had several days in the mid-40s that have burnt leaves off trees, and squeezed the last drops of moisture out of already tinder-dry bush. One survivor described the ground underfoot prior to the fires going through as "like walking on cornflakes".

Under those conditions, a fire plan may simply not be enough, as Victoria's premier John Brumby told the Fairfax Radio Network today: "There is no question that there were people there who did everything right, put in place their fire plan and it wouldn't matter, their house was just incinerated." Brumby wants the policy rexamined.

People have changed too. Small towns like devastated Marysville - 90 minutes' drive northeast of Melbourne - as well as the ever-expanding fire-prone city fringes, are as likely to be home to retirees and "treechangers" (city people who move to the country for a life change) as they are to families with generations of bushfire experience.

One of the commonest reasons for people who intend to stay and defend their properties to change their mind and leave at the last moment is that with no direct experience of fire they are not prepared psychologically.

According to Robert Heath, a psychologist at the University of South Australia in Adelaide, they don't bank on the overwhelming heat, the lack of contact with the outside world, the darkness, or the noise: loud and like a huge blowtorch, apparently. Perhaps it's not surprising then, that many people who lost their lives are thought to have done so while fleeing in their cars.

For now, one thing is clear. Once the wait for the final death toll is over, there will be another agonising wait as experts drill though the statistics to learn whether Australia's bushfire preparedness policy saved or cost lives this weekend.

SOURCE

I think she makes a good point about how people who do not have the proper experience have moved into this areas and that we might need to revise our stay and defend policy for that reason.

I also think that we need to have much stricter laws to make sure that the new homes built in these areas are as ember-proof as they can possibly be.
 
In the day ssince it was opened the Bushfire Relief appeal has raised more than $12 million from the Australian public.

Big business has also been generous with the following pledges being made

TabCorp $2 million

The country's four big banks - ANZ, Commonwealth, National Australia and Westpac - $1 million each

Telstra - $500,000 and donating services

Sporting organisations are also helping out

Cricket Australia - $100,000

South Australian Cricket Association - $25,000

Many cricketers are donating match fees, and the revenue from tickets sold (from Monday onwards) to the one-day cricket international between Australia and New Zealand in Adelaide, will be donated to a Commonwealth Bank Appeal.

The AFL has rescheduled a pre-season Cup clash between the Western Bulldogs and Essendon from Darwin to Melbourne on Friday night, with all proceeds to go to the Victorian government's appeal fund.

The Nine Network will be holding a telethon on Thrusday night hosted by Eddie McGuire

and singer Leonard Cohen, Paul Kelly, AEGLive UK and The Frontier Touring Company have announced their intention to donate $200,000.
 
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So far the Red Cross Appeal has raised $28,000,000 from 156,000 people in just 2 days and this figure only covers donations made over the internet or by phone.

The death-toll is at 181 and, with about 50 people still missing, is expexted to go over the 200 mark.

However I read that one elderly couple who at first were though to have likely perished were found alive sheltering in their home much to the joy of firefighters.

30 people have died in Strathewen, which only had a population of 200 meaning that small town has lost 15% of their population.

Police believe that they know the identity of an arsonist who contributed to the Churchill fire and they are hunting for the man at the moment. 21 people in the region are known to have died as the result of the fires there.
 
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POlice have announced that they have found more bodies and that an updated deathtoll will be released later today.
 
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