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Article on Trek vs Wolverine Box Office

F

Flake

Commodore
Commodore
Here is an article on the future Box Office predictions of Star Trek, it talks about how Star Trek and Wolverine are doing.

Wolverine is apparently on track for $100 Million box office opening weekend, whilst Star Trek is on track for $50 Million. More people are aware of the new Wolverine movie and a higher percentage (50 vs 33) of those aware have a 'definite interest' in seeing the movie.

The article also explains that Wolverine is tracking higher with women.

Paramount are spending a lot more money on advertising in such places like MTV, Spike and Comedy Central to get the 16-34 crowd.

http://adage.com/madisonandvine/article?article_id=136024
 
That's on the high side of expectations for Wolverine ($100 million is about the highest I've seen) and $50 million is about the lowest I've seen for Star Trek. IMO, Star Trek will pull closer to $60 million, and Wolverine closer to $80 million.

That said, the tracking data could be more reliable than all the predictions that are you there. I don't really know about that.
 
$50 - $60 Million was my prediction for an opening weekend anyway. The other tracking service was at $55 Million.

Not to spin anything, but keep in mind advertising will get even bigger closer to release date which could change minds and draw more people in. Their estimates are based on the currently climate this far out. Though how much that will fluctuate is another question.
 
What's a usual week drop in a movie's attendance after opening? Like 40%? If it opens with less than 50 million, that could be trouble.

Had no idea it was up against Wolverine, damn that hairy mutant.
 
Ah whatever, we will see when it comes out. Everyone figured that Watchmen would be breaking records with the hype, and it didn't do as well as people thought. Hopefully Trek will do well.
 
The TREK fanbase will come out in strength and that alone will get us a $60 million opening so I don't believe $50 for a minute. If Trek opens at 50 then it will barely break $125 million if were lucky in the US Box office.
 
Paramount will have to keep the publicity going full force after the first week at least IMHO. I think I remembered Transformers ads still going a month after and they were capitalizing on the movie's success thus far, which in itself created more hype and kept the success going I think.
 
Garak said:
What's a usual week drop in a movie's attendance after opening? Like 40%? If it opens with less than 50 million, that could be trouble.

Had no idea it was up against Wolverine, damn that hairy mutant.
Click to expand...

First Contact, Generations and Insurrection all ended up with 3x their opening weekend, lets hope the same can be said for Star Trek.

Also, tracking has been wrong before!
 
X-men films always open big. X-2 opened to 85 million and finished with 214 million

X-3 opened to over 100 million and finished with 234 million.

The X-men films always open big but they have terrible legs. Which will be true with Wolverine, which is according to many who have seen it on Par with the horrible X-3.

Star Trek will beat Wolverine in the end.
 
I'm curious to see how the internet leak (and generally negative reviews from those who've seen the illegal online copy) will affect "Wolverine". I was planning to see the film until I started reading reviews. Now I think I'll pass.
 
Wolverine will open big but then fall QUICK due to an X-3 backlash and an expected bad word of mouth due to what am sure will be a critical bashing towards the film. Wolverine will make around $200 million US run and 150-250 worldwide...Worldwide will save Wolverine.

For a movie like STAR TREK the tracking polls are useless until 7 days before release becasue thats when people outside the fanbase will decide if to see it and the TV airways will be flooded by TV spot ads to a degree you will walk around the house seeing them. Star Trek will get word of mouth and that may just be enough but worldwide will not as much but should break past $100 million easy enough heading towards $125-150.
 
I think the drop off in the second week for Trek won't be as dramatic as for Wolverine with Angels and Demons coming out the week after and no workprint leak of Trek. I wouldn't be surprised if they were close money wise by the time the new Terminator comes out.
 
Wolverine What? Please! The biggest difference is ST has staying power and a dedicated fan base !! No comparision...I agree that no matter what -- well not unless the movie completely sucks which I refuse to believe it would be thaaaaat bad -- that ST will come out on top in the end....and who doesn't like to be on top? LOL ;)
 
I seriously doubt Wolverine will open with as big a weekend as X3 did. Either way, it doesn't speak to the overall money made. Assuming their numbers are true, it doesn't mean Wolverine will even make more in the end. It has to be a good film to do that and all signs point to "no" at this point.
 
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