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2012: end of the world or just another year?

The only reason a calendar would "end" is if people stopped using it. But there's no reason why the way a calendar is designed would incorporate an endpoint that the calendar was unable to go beyond. All you have to do is add one more number. Every calendar is capable of going on forever. So the very concept that the Mayan calendar "just ended" is illogical. It's also wrong. There is no defined endpoint in the Mayan calendar. On the contrary -- the five cycles I listed are just the commonly used ones. There are several higher tiers of nested cycles in the Mayan/Mesoamerican calendar that can increase indefinitely; the calendar can easily encompass time intervals tens of millions, even hundreds of millions of years in duration. The Mayan calendar is not designed to end. That is simply false. The only things that end in the Mayan calendar are individual cycles, and the end of one cycle is always followed by the beginning of the next one.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesoamerican_Long_Count_calendar
 
I'm not arguing with that notion. I'm just saying that calendars can absolutely end. I admit I know next to nothing about the Mayan calendar (mostly because I don't care that much), so the question being presented was, "Did the Mayans mean for the calendar to end, or did they just decide to stop making calendars?" Did the old guy in charge of calendars go, "Fuck, why do I keep making calendars? I'm not even gonna be around in 2012!" or did the Mayans stop because they truly thought, "Well, the Apocalypse is happening on this day, so we probably don't need to make calendars anymore."

If 2012 is the end of a Mayan cycle, is there actually another calendar that starts a new cycle?
 
Or the Mayans may have thought, "OK, we're covered for a thousand years or so. We'll worry about chiselling up a fresh calendar in a few hundred years. Anyone want a cuppa tea?" It's perfectly reasonable to guess that they simply didn't feel a pressing need to create stela for the next long count yet, though there's plenty of evidence to show they calculated it out.
 
I'm not arguing with that notion. I'm just saying that calendars can absolutely end. I admit I know next to nothing about the Mayan calendar (mostly because I don't care that much), so the question being presented was, "Did the Mayans mean for the calendar to end, or did they just decide to stop making calendars?"

That's not the way a calendar works. It's not like you have to plot out every single year in advance. Rather, you create a repeating cycle that can be logically extended to encompass any future date. For instance, the people who created our Gregorian calendar didn't actually write down specific calendar pages for the year 10,972, but the cyclical system they created can easily be extrapolated to encompass the year 10,972 or any other year. For instance, I can tell you (using this handy page) that today's date, September 13, in the year 10,972 will fall on a Sunday, and that it will be a leap year.

In other words, a calendar is not just a physical object or a chart written down somewhere, as you seem to be assuming. A calendar is a system for measuring time, a paradigm defining a set of cycles and rules for applying them. Using that paradigm, one can calculate any date at any time in the past or future. The people who create a calendar don't have to write down calendar pages or charts for every single year into the indefinite future until they tire out or something; they simply have to establish a standardized set of rules that they or their descendants can use to plot out future dates as needed.


If 2012 is the end of a Mayan cycle, is there actually another calendar that starts a new cycle?

No. It's the same calendar, just the next baktun cycle in it. It's exactly the same thing as when a century or a millennium ends and the next one begins in our calendar. The 2000s aren't a different calendar from the 1900s, they're just the next cycle in the same calendar. It's the same thing with baktun cycles in the Mayan calendar, except that a baktun cycle is about 400 years long. December 20, 2012 is the last day of the 13th baktun, and December 21, 2012 is the first day of the 14th baktun. That's all. It's as simple as that.
 
Personally, I have no idea. I'm going to disappointed if NOTHING happens after thousands of years of hype.

A few decades of hype. Most of it during the Internet era. Let's not assume our "Weekly World News" mindset has been the norm throughout history.

Is this related to the movie or something? Cause how is this a SF/F topic??? Shouldn't this be in Misc???

No, because the whole idea is fiction. It belongs right where it is.

QFT! :techman:

Although come to think of it, there isn't much science involved. We should just call it fantasy.

I'm waiting for a certain poster to show up, with a certain quote in his sig.... ;)
 
In other words, a calendar is not just a physical object or a chart written down somewhere, as you seem to be assuming.

I'm really only assuming it for the sake of the argument. Obviously, if we know how the cycle works, we can easily start a new cycle even if the Mayans didn't write it down for us.

Did the Mayans actually write down a calendar extending until 2012? If so, there are two questions:

1) Why would they bother writing a calendar that far in advance?

2) Why did they decide to stop writing down the calendar when they got to 2012? I mean, they went that far; why not keep going?


I mean, is all the hype because something truly significant happens in 2012 according to the Mayan calendar? Or did we just invent the hype because the Mayans decided one day, "Okay, we're gonna stop writing this down."
 
All of which begs the burning questions: why would a bunch of ancient Mayans know when the world was going to end anyway? As opposed to the rest of us?

And why would their predications be more accurate than anyone's else's?
 
Did the Mayans actually write down a calendar extending until 2012?

Not in exhaustive detail, but yes, contrary to the lies and propaganda, there are Mayan inscriptions referring to predicted or projected events taking place further in the future than 2012 -- as far ahead as 4772 CE, in fact.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesoamerican_Long_Count_calendar#2012_and_the_Long_Count
For example, on the west panel at the Temple of Inscriptions in Palenque, a section of the text projects into the future to the 80th Calendar Round (CR) 'anniversary' of the famous Palenque ruler K'inich Janaab' Pakal's accession to the throne (Pakal's accession occurred on a Calendar Round date 5 Lamat 1 Mol, at Long Count 9.9.2.4.8 equivalent to 27 July 615 CE in the proleptic Gregorian calendar).[n 8] It does this by commencing with Pakal's birthdate 9.8.9.13.0 8 Ajaw 13 Pop (24 March 603 CE Gregorian) and adding to it the Distance Number 10.11.10.5.8.[30] This calculation arrives at the 80th Calendar Round since his accession, a day that also has a CR date of 5 Lamat 1 Mol, but which lies over 4,000 years in the future from Pakal's time—the day 21 October in the year 4772.


If so, there are two questions:

1) Why would they bother writing a calendar that far in advance?

Like I said, they didn't have to write down every single year. They had a cycle that could be extrapolated forward mathematically. If they had reason to compute a specific date in the future, they could do so without actually having to draw a chart of every single day in between, because they had a wonderful labor-saving tool called math.



2) Why did they decide to stop writing down the calendar when they got to 2012? I mean, they went that far; why not keep going?

They didn't stop writing anything in 2012, nor did they make calendars stretching that far ahead in the first place. They didn't even MENTION the year 2012 (or rather, the end of the 13th baktun) except in maybe one inscription. Most Mesoamerican calendrical inscriptions reference dates during the time the Mesoamerican civilizations actually thrived, from about 500 BCE to about 900 CE, when the Long Count calendar fell into disuse. Extrapolating that calendar forward to the present day is something that's been done mostly by modern people who've reconstructed that archaic calendar and used it for their own purposes.


I mean, is all the hype because something truly significant happens in 2012 according to the Mayan calendar? Or did we just invent the hype because the Mayans decided one day, "Okay, we're gonna stop writing this down."

The Mayans themselves had no particular interest in the year 2012. It's just one more date out of many that can be extrapolated from their calendar. It had no more significance to them than, say, the year 4000 has to you or me. It's only a bunch of New Age writers and frauds in the past 35 years who've latched onto the year 2012 as a convenient date to attach their apocalyptic delusions to, and they've misinterpreted and abused the Mayan calendar to justify their fantasies.
 
Fair questions.

Did they have other prophecies that came true?

Not a fair question. This isn't a prophecy in the first place. It's a date on a calendar.

The only reason all this hype exists is because people insist on using the word "prophecy". Seriously, use a different word. It distorts the whole train of thought.

This is no more a prophecy than saying December 31 is the last day of the year.
 
Fair questions.

Did they have other prophecies that came true?


Er, there's no such thing as "prophecies" . . . .

Just because something is "ancient" doesn't make it any magical and profound. If I write that the world will end in the year 7500, why should people in 7499 care? Just because I've been dead for thousands of years?

The Mayans couldn't predict the future . . . because nobody can.
 
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The aliens came and told them when our world would end.

Didn't any of you watch the last Indiana Jones movie?
 
The Myan Calendar thing is just completely stupid. It's pretty much like a civilization from 3000 years from now finding one of our Calendars and thinking the world ends on December 31.
 
The Myan Calendar thing is just completely stupid. It's pretty much like a civilization from 3000 years from now finding one of our Calendars and thinking the world ends on December 31.


Well, that depends. Is it a STAR TREK calendar, a BUFFY calendar, or what?

Everyone knows that only alien swimsuit calendars accurately predict the future . . . ..
 
Isin't the Myan calander off of cycles of the Moon, much like most of the ancient civilizations? The thing that the Discovery Chanel and History and TLC and all the other Chanels are refering to is the alignment of the Galactic center. All the stuff that is brought up in these shows are worst case, doomsday scenerios that will never happen. The Scientists that are commenting know this, but often the various channels do not convey that to the audience and really just make these shows for attention grabbing. The other fact that is going on is Pole Shift, doomsdayers ou to believe that the poles will shift sudenly. If that happened then yes we got a serous problem, but the fact is that the pole shift takes a loooooooooooong time. The pole shift is currently happening along with plate tectonics, but we don't feel it. Granted we do feel earthquakes, but for the most part the plates move slowly over time and we never feel a thing. The galactic center is a super massive black hole and some think that once the sun aligns with it, then the solar system will be sucked into it. If that were to happen we would be dead before we know it, so it dosen't matter. The fact of the matter is that our solar system is a long way out from the center and even though super massive black holes are huge, we will not fall into it's gravity. Supper massive black holes are necesarry for a galaxy to exist. As far as the Myan calander goes, the truth is that even the experts don't have a clue what it all means and interpet it several ways. The Myan language is basically lost along with the civilization. I think it is odd or weird that the calander does point to a specific date that happens to align with certian celestial events, but the truth of that is the Myans spent centuries recording daobserving the stars. That dosen't mean they used the scientific method or were 100 % right. They had a lot of religous motivations also. Scientists today do not factor in religion when practicing astonomy or anything else. When I was young and X-Files was on, I believed in stuff like that. I still do have some superstitions and conspiracy theories that I hold onto, this is not one of them. Now all that bieng said, I would worry about solar flares or solar storms. If a big one hits, it will disrupt our electronics and such. One person sugested it would set us back to the stone age, I disagree and it would probably set us back to the 19th century. All of these are just cojecture and worst case scenerio though. What we shoulkd be worried about are asteroids or self destruction. If your really that woried about it, buy a bottle of liquor and save it, if the shit really does go down there will be no way to stop it, so you mighgt as well enjoy yourself.
 
The other fact that is going on is Pole Shift, doomsdayers ou to believe that the poles will shift sudenly. If that happened then yes we got a serous problem, but the fact is that the pole shift takes a loooooooooooong time. The pole shift is currently happening along with plate tectonics, but we don't feel it. Granted we do feel earthquakes, but for the most part the plates move slowly over time and we never feel a thing.

Actually the doomsday scenarists are confusing two separate phenomena, either out of ignorance or dishonesty. The shift that takes place is in the orientation of the Earth's magnetic poles, as the magnetic field gradually weakens, reverses, and strengthens again over thousands of years. But the doomsayers confuse this with a shift in the Earth's geographic poles, claiming that it means the whole planet will physically flip over, which is just nonsense.

Plate tectonics has no connection to magnetic field shifts. Nor does it cause the Earth's rotational poles to move, except very, very fractionally as the Earth's mass shifts over millions of years. What it does do is change the orientation of the Earth's land masses relative to its rotational poles -- for instance, Antarctica was once near the equator rather than overlapping the South Pole as it does in the modern era. The continents are essentially big slabs of rock floating on top of an ocean of magma and slowly drifting across its surface. Movement of the continents is not the same thing as movement of the entire Earth. They're just the surface layer.


The galactic center is a super massive black hole and some think that once the sun aligns with it, then the solar system will be sucked into it. If that were to happen we would be dead before we know it, so it dosen't matter. The fact of the matter is that our solar system is a long way out from the center and even though super massive black holes are huge, we will not fall into it's gravity.

The black hole thing is complete nonsense. Regardless of any arbitrary "alignment," as long as the Sun is the same distance from the galactic center, it's going to feel the same pull from the central black hole. People have this ludicrous cartoon image of black holes as something that can reach out aggressively and suck you in like a tractor beam or something, but that's crap. From a distance, a black hole of a given mass exerts no more pull than a star of the same mass. It's only when you get close that their gravity becomes significant.


As far as the Myan calander goes, the truth is that even the experts don't have a clue what it all means and interpet it several ways. The Myan language is basically lost along with the civilization.

Now, that's not true. The Mayan people still exist, and to quote Wikipedia, "The Mayan language family is one of the best documented and most studied in the Americas." As for their writing system, far from being "lost," it's the most fully deciphered indigenous script in the Americas. And the calendar is quite well understood today.


I think it is odd or weird that the calander does point to a specific date that happens to align with certian celestial events, but the truth of that is the Myans spent centuries recording daobserving the stars.

No, the truth is that there is no such alignment; the 2012 alarmists made that up by distorting the facts. As I said, the alleged alignment with the galactic equator already happened in 1998. The only alignment the Mayan calendar actually points to on the date we call 12/21/2012 is the winter solstice, which happens every year. Yes, the Mayans were very good at astronomy, and it enabled them to create a marvelously accurate and powerful calendar which they used as any agrarian society would, to tell them when to sow and harvest their crops and manage the other annual cycles of their lives. Any more melodramatic interpretations of what the calendar predicted are modern myths.


Now all that bieng said, I would worry about solar flares or solar storms. If a big one hits, it will disrupt our electronics and such. One person sugested it would set us back to the stone age, I disagree and it would probably set us back to the 19th century.

Both are huge exaggerations. The Earth's atmosphere shields us from the worst effects of a solar flare. The electronics that would be threatened would be those in satellites orbiting the Earth.

To quote the Q&A page I linked to earlier in the thread:
Flares and mass ejections are no danger for humans or other life on Earth. They could endanger astronauts in deep space or on the Moon, and this is something that NASA must learn to deal with, but it is not a problem for you or me. Large outbursts can interrupt radio transmission, cause bright displays of the aurora (Northern and Southern Lights), and damage the electronics of some satellites in space. Today many satellites are designed to deal with this possibility, for example by switching off some of their more delicate circuits and going into a “safe” mode for a few hours. In extreme cases solar activity can also disrupt electrical transmissions on the ground, possibly leading to electrical blackouts, but this is rare.

So we're talking a few days of inconvenience here, not the collapse of civilization.
 
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Anybody remember THE JUPITER EFFECT? It was a bestselling book that predicted that some bizarre planetary alignment was going to destroy the world . . . back around 1980 or so.

As I recall, I had a chemistry exam the day the world was supposed to end. There was much joking about whether we were wasting our time studying for it . . . .

Need I mention that I ended up having to take the damn test!
 
Heck, even the Book of Revelation in the Bible was actually meant as a prediction of events that would happen within the lifetime of its author and original readers/listeners. But when it didn't happen, people started making excuses to push it back. And every generation ever since has predicted that the world would end in their lifetimes -- and there were probably similar predictions going back thousands of years more. It seems that some people just can't accept the idea of the world continuing to exist after they're gone.
 
Anybody remember THE JUPITER EFFECT? It was a bestselling book that predicted that some bizarre planetary alignment was going to destroy the world . . . back around 1980 or so.

As I recall, I had a chemistry exam the day the world was supposed to end. There was much joking about whether we were wasting our time studying for it . . . .

Need I mention that I ended up having to take the damn test!

Did you study?
 
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