I think that the new show will definitely eclipse STD. It has the nostalgia factor for the people who don't like what's on now, and Stewart is a "name" actor, unlike anyone on STD.
I'll be cool with it, but I really hope that it's more of a TV-14 show than STD. It just wouldn't tonally fit with TNG, and if they want to keep the TNG nostalgia demographic, I think they'll have to do that. Maybe tone it to a grim/drama level of DS9, but not any more than that.
I'm assuming that it's going to be "Admiral Picard", with him as a driving character, but not necessarily anyone who will have to be in every scene. Much as I hate to be doom and gloom, Sir Patrick is 78. I can't foresee him doing more than a couple seasons if it's a full-time gig that requires as much effort as TNG. If he's behind a desk most of the time, maybe a a flag officer on the new ship, like how Ross had the Bellerophon. Picard has his fleet comand room and uses the new ship as a mobile base, but thee's also a captain who runs the ship.