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Cosmos - With Neil deGrasse Tyson

Yeah, I just cashed a $15 million dollar check from Exxon just for the work I've done in this thread. :cool:

And the 97 percent claim had to be retracted, and is probably going to end up in the courts as Queensland University sues anyone who dares publish the raw data behind it. Even leading skeptics were having their papers cited as supporting the consensus.
Links?

Of course I can't link to anything about the $15 million dollars I just got from Exxon - because it's secret. What kind of global conspiracy would it be if warmists like Michael Mann and Peter Gleick could actually find out about all the millions of dollars the oil industry is paying me to reply to your comments? :rolleyes:

And I erred in conflating the Cook Lewandoski paper that had to be retracted (and scrubbed from the web for grossly violating professional ethical standards), with Cook's 97 percent consensus paper, in which his university is hurling legal threats at Brandon Shollenberger who got access to the raw data, forbidding him not only from revealing it, or looking at or analyzing it, but even forbidding him from revealing anything in the Universitiy's letter threatening legal action on the grounds that their letter is copyrighted. :lol:

Needless to say, the climate bloggers are laughing hysterically, and Shollenberger told them to put up or shut up. It's a current event that everyone is talking about.
I'm not seeing any links. So please continue to lie and I'll continue to not believe a single thing you say.
 
you ignore what those thousands of dedicated weather monitors saw on their thermometers, and then dutifully recorded and mailed off, and believe that it's more precise to just change their observations by three to five degrees, ninety years after the fact?

Truly, fact-based observational science is dead.
So ... you ignore all of the inherent biases in the less-than-systematic collection and previous analyses of that data?

Truly, fact-based observational science is dead.
 
you ignore what those thousands of dedicated weather monitors saw on their thermometers, and then dutifully recorded and mailed off, and believe that it's more precise to just change their observations by three to five degrees, ninety years after the fact?

Truly, fact-based observational science is dead.
So ... you ignore all of the inherent biases in the less-than-systematic collection and previous analyses of that data?

Truly, fact-based observational science is dead.

And there's the problem. If a thousand trained people read a thousand calibrated and certified thermometers and they all read the same thing, a scientist would say that their readings would be the gold-standard, since there are no other period measurements.

Were thermometers back then off by three of four degrees? Did they say that water froze at 36F and boiled at 216 F? No, they didn't.

Were their Stevenson screens painted a different color, or with a different paint? No, they're still the same color, height, slat spacing, and paint. If the same equipment back then recorded the temperature as X plus or minus a half a degree, and the exact same setup now would record the temperature as X to half a degree, then there is no conceivable scientific justification for adjusting the previous measurement by some huge amount. For example, the original data says the low temperature on some particular day was 34 F, and on that day water wouldn't freeze. Now we claim it was 30 F and that the lakes were all frozen but the people were too dumb to realize it?


In science you change theories to match observations.

In climate science you change observations to match theories.
 
Still not seeing anything resembling evidence. Just a lot of supposition and a willful ignorance of the stated reasons for such a change.

It kind of reminds me of the way the GOP howled at Nate Silver for his methods of analyzing poll data. Sure, one poll is accurate for its specific moment, but its biases and system of data collection do not necessarily represent the most accurate picture. Sure, Pa Walton recorded a 72 degree day in June of 1935. But because other measurements were taken in inconsistent locations, or with inconsistent methods, or at inconsistent intervals, there is an inherent bias introduced into overall data set. The newer models are a way to more accurately remove those biases.

Although, I'm not surprised that there's yet another gturner post that categorically ignores or denies scientific data and methods.
 
Still not seeing anything resembling evidence. Just a lot of supposition and a willful ignorance of the stated reasons for such a change.

It kind of reminds me of the way the GOP howled at Nate Silver for his methods of analyzing poll data. Sure, one poll is accurate for its specific moment, but its biases and system of data collection do not necessarily represent the most accurate picture. Sure, Pa Walton recorded a 72 degree day in June of 1935. But because other measurements were taken in inconsistent locations, or with inconsistent methods, or at inconsistent intervals, there is an inherent bias introduced into overall data set. The newer models are a way to more accurately remove those biases.

Although, I'm not surprised that there's yet another gturner post that categorically ignores or denies scientific data and methods.

Well, perhaps a few great grandparents were too dumb to read a thermometer to within 5 degrees, but obviously not everyone was or we can just throw out all climate and temperature records.

Oddly enough, one of the world authorities on surface temperature measurement is the world's most prominent skeptic, Anthony Watts, who conducted a massive surface station project that forced the NCDC and NOAA to remove a huge number of reporting stations from the data set.

Anthony's project started by looking at the errors in the Stevenson screen, since as a graduate student he almost painted one with modern latex paint, which would destroy the consistency of the measurement instrument.

As it turns out, all the weather stations have a consistent, false, positive bias over time as the white wash ages, and as dust, dirt, and in some cases lichens accumulate on the screen. They also very, very slowly sink into the soil, moving them into the warmer air closer to the ground, but that's a very minor bias except in extreme deserts. Over time the station tends to accumulate accessories and upgrades, like a well-worn walking path, large decorative rocks, a nearby parking lot, and attached building, and the outside unit of a central air-conditioning system for the attached building.

All these create a false positive bias, and when they get corrected, by washing the Stevenson screen, repainting it, moving the decorative rocks, or moving it 50 feet further out in the yard to build a patio, there's an abrubt return to the initial conditions. What the NCDC has done is use a computer program to retain the false rising slope and ignore all the returns to the initial conditions. In essence, they're claiming that the grass in your yard is five feet high because they regard the abrupt drop in grass height from mowing as anomalous and stitch together the positive trend in grass heights to reach a final number.

To anyone with even a basic competence in science, it's obvious that you can't do things like that and still have a data set that has any physical meaning. The graph is prettier, it's smother (and more ominous), but it's also utter fiction. They've replaced a recorded measurement with a number that was conjured out of air to satisfy someone's artistic sensibilities or political motives.

If real science allowed that kind of thing, we'd still be insisting that projectiles travel in straight lines as Aristotle taught us, once you perform enough corrections to the raw data, and particle physics would be a mess because observations would be rejected in favor of opinions on where particles should have appeared.
 
Spring link on a recent Chinese paper that stumbled across part of the homogenization and adjustment problems.

What the GHCN (Global Historical Climate Network) is using is a break point method, where nearby stations are compared, and if one suddenly breaks ranks with the others, as occurs when someone repaints the Stevenson screen or relocates the station so the exhaust of a Boeing 737 isn't directly impinging on it (which is actually common, horrifyingly enough), they treat the sudden change as an error and readjust all the past temperatures to maintain a consistent trend (in calculus terms, they make sure the function is smooth by splicing together the smooth sections at the break point). They have to do this continuously over time as new data sets come in, so the past is always being subjected to artificially created cooling so that no individual data set contains a break-point. But the break-points aren't errors to be discarded, they're real changes. It's like having a meter than always drifts in the same direction as it warms up, where you compensate by periodically turning it off and back on to correct the drift. The GHCN isn't correcting the drift problem, they are eliminating the correction to the drift problem by mathematically going back and removing all the jumps where you cycled power on your measurement instrument to correct drift.

So when Joe Smuckers went out and measured the temperature in Cedar Rapids on April 18, 1921, he got it right to within half a degree. It was a real measurement of a real temperature. It was probably slightly biased to the high side, because he hadn't repainted his screen in a couple of years, but it was pretty darn close. The adjustments the GHCN continuously makes requires us to believe that Joe was off by four or five degrees, and that his calibrated thermometer was saying it was 34F when it was actually 29F, and that his pond was frozen when his whole family would swear it wasn't.

Under the GHCN data sets, the past continues to cool down. Perhaps you think that the laws of thermodynamics requires all isolated bodies to lose heat, even in the past, so that past temperature records must gradually get colder, too, but then warmists will believe anything, however wacky.

The past is not getting colder, but its temperature records sure are. How can that be?
 
Fascinating that your source does not question the need for homogenization at all:

It is generally recognized that only by using homogenized data series can the long-term climatic trends be accurately detected. However, due to changes in observing sites, instruments, observing schedule, observing habits and micro-environment around the observational grounds, discontinuous points in the observational records can be created, especially for surface air temperature (SAT) records. The inhomogeneous data may bring certain deviation for estimating climatic trends, leading to inaccu-rate analyses for regional climate change detection in some circumstances (Jones et al. 1986 ; Easterling and Peterson 1995a; Yan et al. 2001; Ren et al. 2005; Menne et al. 2010).

Therefore, researchers commonly examine and adjust the inhomogeneities before going to analyze long-term SAT trends at single sites or on regional scales, by combining varied mathematical methods and station metadata (e.g., Jones et al. 1986; Easterling and Peterson 1995a, b; Alexandersson and Moberg 1997; Aguilar et al. 2003; Menne and Williams 2005)

It is reasonable to assume that the effect of the data homogenization on the estimates of SAT trends and urban biases for the country on a whole would be more moderate than that reported for Huairou station in this paper, but it would not be overlooked considering that a common practice is to relocate the weather stations within built-up areas to suburbs or countryside when they are regarded as being less representative for monitoring baseline climate, and this will result in obvious inhomogeneities in the SAT data series in mainland China, which has been consensually regarded as improper for applications in studies of climate change and requires a homogeneity-adjustment before they could be used in studies. If the homogenization significantly affects the SAT trends for part or even majority of the stations in the country, the urban biases in the homogenized SAT data series of the stations have to be more carefully assessed and adjusted before they are to be confidently used in analyses of climate change.

So this paper is about adjusting and refining the process to make it more accurate, rather than invalidating the process to begin with.
 
And yet they don't adjust the data set just once, based on analyzing possible sources of error, because then they'd have done their adjustment once back in 1995 and have been done with it. But no, they adjust the past data repeatedly and automatically as current temperature data comes in. In many states the pre-WW-II temperatures have fallen by 2 degrees just since this past winter. Prior to that those temperatures had already fallen last year, and several times during the 2000's, and a big drop during Y2K, preceded by several drops during the 1990's.

What this means, in a physical sense, is that the climate scientists have devised a way to cause modern temperature variations to ripple backwards through time. Whenever a station shows a new inhomogeniety, a break point, the past temperature records for that station are readjusted downwards, however far back its records go. Even particle physicists at CERN haven't figured out how to do this, even in a special quantum-coupled temporal bubble that might move a couple of atoms backwards by a few milliseconds, much less dramatically impact whole regions in the remote past. Einstein and Carl Sagan viewed time as having an arrow with one direction, but alarmist climatolgists have somehow made an unimagined breakthrough.

What's even more alarming than global warming is the possibility that climate scientists, in creating profound effects on previous generations via temperature adjustments, could create temporal paradoxes. For example, the still-plummeting temperatures on the Eastern Front in WW-II (and it continues to plummet) could cause thousands of German and Russian soldiers to die when history records them as having survived to produce offspring who even now could be studying and adjusting climate data. One slip up and the whole universe could collapse.
 
Where is the evidence that this is a result of a nefarious "climate scientist" agenda, rather than a genuine attempt to get the most accurate possible representation of historical SAT?
 
It doesn't matter what the motive is. It's incorrect science that produces results that contradict the known laws of physics (the past can't cool).

Suppose you have some coding geeks who know just enough math to insist that the climate records must be smooth (in calculus terms), so they splice the continuous segments together without regard as to why a temperature graph might not, in fact, be smooth. There is nothing in physics that says that temperatures can't change dramatically over the course of a second, much less a day or a year, or that a station could get recalibrated when it drifts or when its environment has gotten too far out of specifications.

So you have a lot of temperature stations that warm up artificially over time, due to urban heat island, poor citing, or the construction of adjacent buildings (Anthony Watts' team photographed hundreds and hundreds of temperature recording stations that didn't even remotely meet the NOAA guidelines, which is why they ended up getting dropped from the network). Such stations will show a positive drift and end up reading higher than they would have had not the local environment been altered. So fixes are made or the station is resited, and that creates a discontinuity in the temperature curve, a place where it isn't smooth. The discontinuity is a real change that must be included in the function of temperature over time or else all readings on one side have to be adjusted, even the readings that weren't possibly in error - to maintain some anal-retentive nitwit's devotion to the concept of smoothness, even if the result requires us to believe that every single climate geek in the 1930's was blind, or that time travel is possible.

You could do the same thing by putting a heating element under a station and programming it to slowly warm over the course of a decade, perhaps warming the readings by 4C and then suddenly turning it off and throwing it away. Suppose you were in a place like Hawaii, where the temperature hardly varies, and even picked a magic spot where the temperature was always 72 F. In fact, the station had been reporting 72F since 1880.

So you add your heating element (to create some false alarm) and it warms the station up by 4C over 10 years, giving 76F readings, and then before you're discovered you take it away, returning the station to the 72F baseline. That created a discontinuity, and the climate scientists will correct it by making the 76F reading match up with the renewed 72 F reading by adjusting all the readings from 1880 to 2000 to 68 F. Suddenly Hawaii's historic climate has shifted by 4 degrees, despite one-hundred and twenty years of weather people diligently going out to the station, carefully reading the calibrated thermometer, and writing down "72 F".

Did Hawaii's historic temperatures actually change, were they improved in any way, or did they just get thrown into the trash bin to satisfy someone's desire for a prettier, smoother graph?
 
If they disagree with me on this point, then they're probably wrong, but if you want to hold up Chinese climate scientists as unbiased experts then go right ahead. They love them some coal fired power plants.

As Feynmann said, "Science is the organized skepticism in the reliability of expert opinion.”

In this case, we have people working at the GHCN who insist that temperature curves must be smooth, and are willing to throw away logic, reason, and the laws of physics to make sure their graphs, by gosh, look smooth. They are notorious for their adjustments, and their unannounced changes where they don't notify anyone until a prominent skeptic posts before and after animated GIFs of what they just did - without them having even notified climate scientists about the change to the historical data series, or why. It's like trusting a librarian who insists on slipping back into the shelves to make continual "improvements" to Shakespeare, Milton, and Twain.

As for the group's statistical skills, department chairs in statistics have testified that Mann and others use techniques never before known to the field, yielding results that are dubious, if not completely invalid, and have given such testimony both to the US Congress and to Parliament. Egregious statistical errors pop up constantly in alarmist papers, so they're still not communicating with wider academia as a whole, remaining a closed-off bunch of evangelicals with their own impenetrable math about the day the world ends.
 
g, if their activities were so notorious, you wouldn't be the only one saying they are. You keep making claims but you don't back any of them up with anything.
 
If they disagree with me on this point, then they're probably wrong, but if you want to hold up Chinese climate scientists as unbiased experts then go right ahead. They love them some coal fired power plants.
:guffaw:

The article is your source. If it was so biased to begin with, why offer it in the first place? I love how you present it as an authority on the subject, only to distance yourself from it when it's shown to completely undermine your point.

:lol:
 
I love how you present it as an authority on the subject, only to distance yourself from it when it's shown to completely undermine your point.

That's a familiar tactic. Just today on another site, I was in a discussion of Man of Steel, talking about how the buildings wouldn't have collapsed so readily as they were shown to in the Superman-Zod fight (because buildings are actually designed not to fall down under the slightest stress). Another commenter invoked physics and said if the bodies hit fast enough, they'd hit with the force of a nuclear bomb. So I called their bluff, did the math, and showed that Superman would have to hit at 38% of lightspeed to equal the energy of the smallest nuke in the US arsenal, and that what was shown onscreen was a relatively slow impact that would likely do no more damage than a small cannonball. And the same commenter who'd tried using physics to defend the movie then ridiculed me for trying to bring physics into a discussion of a fantasy movie.

There are some people who are just unable to contemplate being wrong, or at least unable to admit it. Culture has conditioned them to see that as a weakness or something to be ashamed of. So if they offer an argument that's decisively proven wrong, they'll just rewrite history and claim they never offered that argument in the first place. The contradictions don't matter to them, so long as they don't have to admit error.

This is where science has the edge, because, as Tyson said, science is about recognizing that it's okay to be wrong or unsure of your facts. Because when you admit you don't know something, that's when you ask questions, and that's how you find out new stuff.
 
And that's how we can rule out the possibility that current temperatures ripple back through time to lower past temperatures. Those can't keep changing.

Tyson sounds like he's echoing Judith Curry and other somewhat skeptical climate scientists who are saying their field got hijacked by activists and evangelists who are doing tremendous damage to the edifice and reputation of science, damage that may take decades to undo.
 
You do realize it isn't the specific temperatures that are changing, but how those temperatures represent the climate at that time, right? And you do understand why it's scientifically inaccurate to consider those specific temperatures when considering the overall climate at that time, right? Or are you ignoring your own source?

However, due to changes in observing sites, instruments, observing schedule, observing habits and micro-environment around the observational grounds, discontinuous points in the observational records can be created, especially for surface air temperature (SAT) records. The inhomogeneous data may bring certain deviation for estimating climatic trends, leading to inaccu-rate analyses for regional climate change detection in some circumstances (Jones et al. 1986 ; Easterling and Peterson 1995a; Yan et al. 2001; Ren et al. 2005; Menne et al. 2010).
 
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