Let's have a good discussion about this. 
In their seminal book on the subject of this legendary 'lost series', Judith and Garfield Reeves-Stevens make the case that Phase II's failure to launch was arguably for the greater benefit of the franchise, for a number of reasons:
1) Because it might have been a still-born series, and if it *was* cancelled after only 13 episodes it would've been the Star Trek franchise's "last chance", the final nail in the coffin for a show that had already been given so many second chances. The possibility of a third attempt would've been remote.
2) Tying into the above, a TV series would have precluded the theatrical movies as we knew them, which might likewise have precluded the spin-off shows that came about as a direct result of the movies being such a success. Even if Phase II had've prospered for a full 5+ year run, it would have resulted in a very different narrative of events. No 'Next Generation', no 'Deep Space' and no 'Voyager'.
3) A third possibility, that the whole conception of the show as a tentpole for a mooted Paramount network could have meant that even if the show was well received, if the 'great experiment' of Paramount Television failed, even despite Star Trek's success, then Star Trek could have crashed and burnt with it.
Personally, while I do see their point-of-view, I also think it does rather hedge upon looking at the worst case scenario rather than the best case.
Undoubtedly, Star Trek as we know it today, possibly even the Star Trek phenomenon, might not have been as strong without events going exactly the way they did. Perhaps Phase II as a sequel series would've been too different to TOS to catch on, or it would've been too soon to take the franchise in new directions, or it might've been too *much* like TOS to truly create its own identity as TNG later was able to.
All of these are factors in this hypothetical.
On the other hand, the TNG template effectively *was* Phase II by proxy, with its more ensemble focus and blatant reuse of character templates. And it *was* a success, proof that rejigging the format of TOS in this way, even in 1977, might have proven beneficial. A gamble for sure, but *potentially* a winning gamble, so long as enough of the audience at home were able to go along with it.
There's a wild card here: the lack of Mister Spock. Without doubt, one of the biggest factors for TOS's success is that the Spock character 'caught on' with the viewers at home. The format was interesting in itself, but it was this "guy with the pointed ears" who everybody was (forgive the pun) fascinated by.
And he was never a factor in Phase II at any stage of its life. Spock didn't even come back into the picture until Phase II had been shut down and production shifted to Star Trek: The Motion Picture, whereafter Bob Wise famously came in and made a deal to get Nimoy back on board. Xon was a potentially interesting replacement, and his actor seems to have been very thorough from what I've seen of him in interviews and such, but it's just *possible* that Xon would be seen as an interloper by the hardcore Spock fans, and as a suspiciously similar substitute by the more casual viewers. He had a *lot* of hurdles to jump over, and it's debatable whether he would've been able to overcome those obstabcles. The entire rest of the TOS cast of characters being there (unlike TNG, where the entire cast were new) would only have underlined for many people the startling lack of Spock in Phase II, no matter how much the scripts did to make Xon a likeable alternative.
What do you guys think?
Do you reckon Phase II could've taken off? Or do you think, ultimately, it was for the best that it never happened?

In their seminal book on the subject of this legendary 'lost series', Judith and Garfield Reeves-Stevens make the case that Phase II's failure to launch was arguably for the greater benefit of the franchise, for a number of reasons:
1) Because it might have been a still-born series, and if it *was* cancelled after only 13 episodes it would've been the Star Trek franchise's "last chance", the final nail in the coffin for a show that had already been given so many second chances. The possibility of a third attempt would've been remote.
2) Tying into the above, a TV series would have precluded the theatrical movies as we knew them, which might likewise have precluded the spin-off shows that came about as a direct result of the movies being such a success. Even if Phase II had've prospered for a full 5+ year run, it would have resulted in a very different narrative of events. No 'Next Generation', no 'Deep Space' and no 'Voyager'.
3) A third possibility, that the whole conception of the show as a tentpole for a mooted Paramount network could have meant that even if the show was well received, if the 'great experiment' of Paramount Television failed, even despite Star Trek's success, then Star Trek could have crashed and burnt with it.
Personally, while I do see their point-of-view, I also think it does rather hedge upon looking at the worst case scenario rather than the best case.
Undoubtedly, Star Trek as we know it today, possibly even the Star Trek phenomenon, might not have been as strong without events going exactly the way they did. Perhaps Phase II as a sequel series would've been too different to TOS to catch on, or it would've been too soon to take the franchise in new directions, or it might've been too *much* like TOS to truly create its own identity as TNG later was able to.
All of these are factors in this hypothetical.
On the other hand, the TNG template effectively *was* Phase II by proxy, with its more ensemble focus and blatant reuse of character templates. And it *was* a success, proof that rejigging the format of TOS in this way, even in 1977, might have proven beneficial. A gamble for sure, but *potentially* a winning gamble, so long as enough of the audience at home were able to go along with it.
There's a wild card here: the lack of Mister Spock. Without doubt, one of the biggest factors for TOS's success is that the Spock character 'caught on' with the viewers at home. The format was interesting in itself, but it was this "guy with the pointed ears" who everybody was (forgive the pun) fascinated by.

What do you guys think?
