MLB Offseason 2013-2014

[Use of Time]

But Gordon Beckham and Brian McCann are not even remotely close to a Mike Trout and a Bryce Harper and they were escorted quickly through the minors to the major leagues. Hell even a team like St. Louis who was in the fucking World Series was using guys like Joe Kelly and Michael Wacha who have less then 30 Triple A games between the two of them. Also, guys like Kolton Wong, Matt Adams and Matt Carpenter only spent one year in triple A before joining the Cardinals in a competitive capacity. I'm sorry but you will never convince me that top prospects need to face two to three years of Triple A pitching before they are ready. Guys are getting fast tracked to the big leagues and are making an impact immediately upon their arrival.

I'm sorry but you are making my point for me but by all means lets use Tampa as an example. Tampa's star players played the following amount of triple A games

Evan Longoria had only 129 at bats before getting called up.
Matt Moore played in only 9 games at Triple A
David Price played in only 4 games.

I'll cap this off by using an example from my own favorite team. Jason Heyward had only 9 at bats in triple A before becoming a full time player posting an OPS of .849 in his first year.

 

[Scout101]

In that 8-9 years of suck, they also drafted:

Josh Hamilton
BJ Upton
Rocco Baldelli
Delmon Young
Jeff Neimann
Evan Longoria
David Price

There's others, and these were just first round picks, but plenty of these guys either helped out or were traded for parts that did. Not all generational talents.

And yes, it's the biggest crapshoot of all the major sports, but even if not every pick is a Harper, you can still get some pretty good picks.

Here's the #1 overall pick by year. Some flameouts, but most of these were at least decent players, and a few HOF guys in there.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_first_overall_Major_League_Baseball_draft_picks

That's just #1, not to say the #2 guy wasn't even better, or there wasn't a HOF player in the 40th round, just pointing out that if you're going to be bad, might as well suck. Otherwise, you're like the Mets, and stuck in the mediocrity hell. Not going anywhere, spending lots of money, but drafting low enough to not snag the top talent there either.

 

[Use of Time]

In that 8-9 years of suck, they also drafted:

Josh Hamilton
BJ Upton
Rocco Baldelli
Delmon Young
Jeff Neimann
Evan Longoria
David Price

There's others, and these were just first round picks, but plenty of these guys either helped out or were traded for parts that did. Not all generational talents.

And yes, it's the biggest crapshoot of all the major sports, but even if not every pick is a Harper, you can still get some pretty good picks.

Here's the #1 overall pick by year. Some flameouts, but most of these were at least decent players, and a few HOF guys in there.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_first_overall_Major_League_Baseball_draft_picks

That's just #1, not to say the #2 guy wasn't even better, or there wasn't a HOF player in the 40th round, just pointing out that if you're going to be bad, might as well suck. Otherwise, you're like the Mets, and stuck in the mediocrity hell. Not going anywhere, spending lots of money, but drafting low enough to not snag the top talent there either.

Exactly. By the way that list is interesting. Some of those names are eyebrow raising. Kris Benson was a number 1 draft pick? Jesus.

 

[Pegaritaville]

I'm just hoping the Twins avoid another 90+ loss season. I used to have a lot of hope at the start of every season, but the Twins' farm system isn't what it used to be.

 

[Ar-Pharazon]

I didn't remember Shawon Dunston being a #1 pick for the Cubs.

If nothing else, that crazy cannon arm of his made Mark Grace a great first baseman.

 

[Timby]

I'm sorry but you will never convince me that top prospects need to face two to three years of Triple A pitching before they are ready.

I was never talking about top prospects, which is the point you seem to be missing. You called AAA the place where veterans and fringe young players go to maybe get called up at some point, which is patently untrue. You're bringing up names like Longoria and Heyward, who clearly didn't need that time in the minors, but they are exceptions to the rule. There is a huge gap between "guys who are really, really good right off the bat" and "guys who will be lucky to see a major-league bench." Just because a few dudes rip up AA and show surprising aptitude at the major league level right away doesn't mean that everyone who doesn't is bordering on the scrap heap.

 

[Use of Time]

I'm sorry but you will never convince me that top prospects need to face two to three years of Triple A pitching before they are ready.

I was never talking about top prospects, which is the point you seem to be missing. You called AAA the place where veterans and fringe young players go to maybe get called up at some point, which is patently untrue. You're bringing up names like Longoria and Heyward, who clearly didn't need that time in the minors, but they are exceptions to the rule. There is a huge gap between "guys who are really, really good right off the bat" and "guys who will be lucky to see a major-league bench." Just because a few dudes rip up AA and show surprising aptitude at the major league level right away doesn't mean that everyone who doesn't is bordering on the scrap heap.

Read my first post on this topic. My focus this entire conversation has been about top prospects. You are the one that condescendingly jumped in to call my input "silly" and a "meaningless conversation." I have given you several examples of teams that have multiple players that get fast tracked to the show, most of which aren't even the generational talents you are talking about. You keep saying these players that have a cup of coffee in triple A and go right into the show are these "franchise player" type prospects that are so rare but I just gave you a team with 5 players that did it. (Cardinals)

Had they been waiting on Wacha and Kelly to spend one more year in Memphis mowing down the Buffalo Bison they wouldn't have competed for a title this year. They aren't the only ones escorting top talent to the bigs either. Look, I gave you so many examples last night of players that are doing this and they are hardly on the level of Harper, Trout, and Strasburg. Go watch a Triple A game in July and tell me that I'm wrong. The lineups are filled with guys going nowhere and some older familiar faces hoping to get another shot. I watched the Norfolk Tides throughout the summer and the lineups that came through there were hilarious at times. You may get to see a superstar for a couple of months or maybe even a year but that is about it. If they can play, they will get called up.

Obviously not every prospect in the farm system is going to get it quickly but just about every team has about three or four players that are going to get plugged in early and most likely make an impact. That is all I'm saying. The whole point is that Scout had it right when talking about the Rays path to success stemming in part from a decade of failure.

As plugged into the game as you are I can't believe you are arguing with me on this. It's possible we are just missing each other here.

 

[Danny99]

I'm just hoping the Twins avoid another 90+ loss season. I used to have a lot of hope at the start of every season, but the Twins' farm system isn't what it used to be.

How does Ron Gardenhire keep his job? From the outside looking in, it's like he had a decent team and couldn't do much with it and now is at the bottom of his division fairly consistently.

 

[Use of Time]

I'm just hoping the Twins avoid another 90+ loss season. I used to have a lot of hope at the start of every season, but the Twins' farm system isn't what it used to be.

How does Ron Gardenhire keep his job? From the outside looking in, it's like he had a decent team and couldn't do much with it and now is at the bottom of his division fairly consistently.

I don't know about having decent talent. They just flat out couldn't pitch all year. They don't have any depth in the starting rotation. Gardenhire seemed to do a good job in years past when they had Liriano and Santana.

 

[Pegaritaville]

I'm just hoping the Twins avoid another 90+ loss season. I used to have a lot of hope at the start of every season, but the Twins' farm system isn't what it used to be.

How does Ron Gardenhire keep his job? From the outside looking in, it's like he had a decent team and couldn't do much with it and now is at the bottom of his division fairly consistently.

I don't know about having decent talent. They just flat out couldn't pitch all year. They don't have any depth in the starting rotation. Gardenhire seemed to do a good job in years past when they had Liriano and Santana.

Yep. Gardy's done pretty good when he's had some talent (most of which came up through the farm system), but it's been slim pickings for a while. Although a few years ago when the Twins upped the payroll quite a bit he didn't exactly shine so I'm not sure why he seems to get a pass when things go bad.

There's talk of the Twins expanding the payroll next year, so it'll be interesting to see if (a) they spend wisely and (b) Gardy can take advantage of that.

 

[Mr. Laser Beam]

Looks like Brad Ausmus will be the new Tigers manager.

 

[Tom Hendricks]

The Mets part ways with Johan Santana, by not picking up his club option. So now Johan is a free agent, I wish him luck. I appreciated his time with the Mets, I hope that he lands with a good club and gets to pitch this year.

 

[Timby]

After two shoulder capsule tears, Santana's career is most likely over. 134 pitches in that no-hitter certainly didn't help. He'll get a NRI from somebody, but I can't imagine anything more than that.

 

[Timby]

Also, I can't wait for the winter meetings to start ... someone is going to give Ellsbury an absolutely ridiculous contract (please be Rube, please be Rube, please be Rube) and I am going to laugh my ass off.

 

[R. Star]

Looks like Brad Ausmus will be the new Tigers manager.

Always figured Ausmus would become a manager one day. He handled the Astros pitching staff quite well for a long time. I am sorta surprised the Tigers just signed him with no previous experience. Usually former players have to do their time in the minors again before they're considered.

 

[SmoothieX]

After two shoulder capsule tears, Santana's career is most likely over. 134 pitches in that no-hitter certainly didn't help. He'll get a NRI from somebody, but I can't imagine anything more than that.

That contract will be nice to have off the books. Between age and injury, the Mets have a knack for signing star pitchers on the wrong end of their prime - Glavine, Pedro, Santana.

And their young pitchers have a tendency to get hurt and flame out. I'm really hoping the Harvey, Wheeler, Mejia combo isn't this generation's Isringhausen/Pulsipher/Wilson mess.

As for Santana, maybe someone takes a flyer on him. I can't see him being a mop up middle reliever that comes in a blowout once a week, or someone who hangs out in the minors half the year and makes a spot start or two, or gets called up in July or August to be a sacrificial arm as some hot prospect approaches his innings limit. Best case is as the 5th starter somewhere?

 

[Timby]

Always figured Ausmus would become a manager one day. He handled the Astros pitching staff quite well for a long time. I am sorta surprised the Tigers just signed him with no previous experience. Usually former players have to do their time in the minors again before they're considered.

It's a very, very strange hire. I mean, Ausmus was widely pegged as a future manager when playing, but he repeatedly refused major league coaching or minor league managerial jobs and wouldn't even talk MLB manager jobs unless it was a perfect situation. His only bench experience at all was with Team Israel in the WBC qualifiers last year, and he's spent the last four years with a part-time special assistant role in San Diego that appeared to be the usual sinecure that job title represents.

The history of former players dropped directly into managerial jobs is terrible, because they usually don't have the basic decisions down pat and rely too much on gut instincts from their playing days. I mean, maybe Ausmus breaks the trend, but if you really watched Mike Matheny's game management decisions in the playoffs and said, "Boy, I gotta get me some of that," then you deserve exactly what you're getting from Brad Ausmus.

As for Santana, maybe someone takes a flyer on him. I can't see him being a mop up middle reliever that comes in a blowout once a week, or someone who hangs out in the minors half the year and makes a spot start or two, or gets called up in July or August to be a sacrificial arm as some hot prospect approaches his innings limit. Best case is as the 5th starter somewhere?

I'm not even sure someone will take a one-year gamble on him at this point. I mean, Santana's arm is completely cooked (one shoulder capsule tear is hard enough to come back from -- two essentially means you're done) and even in 2012, when he was supposedly healthy (before his arm fell off), he was getting hit pretty hard. As I said, I'm sure someone will give him a NRI in February, but you're better off lighting money on fire than giving guaranteed cash to Santana at this point.

 

[SmoothieX]

Oh I don't think he's any kind of lock to make a team. I was trying to say is best case scenario is he gives you 5 2/3 decent innings every 5th day and wins 8-9 games with a stint or two on the DL.

His arm is held together by fishing line and chewing gum at this point.

 

[R. Star]

Always figured Ausmus would become a manager one day. He handled the Astros pitching staff quite well for a long time. I am sorta surprised the Tigers just signed him with no previous experience. Usually former players have to do their time in the minors again before they're considered.

It's a very, very strange hire. I mean, Ausmus was widely pegged as a future manager when playing, but he repeatedly refused major league coaching or minor league managerial jobs and wouldn't even talk MLB manager jobs unless it was a perfect situation. His only bench experience at all was with Team Israel in the WBC qualifiers last year, and he's spent the last four years with a part-time special assistant role in San Diego that appeared to be the usual sinecure that job title represents.

The history of former players dropped directly into managerial jobs is terrible, because they usually don't have the basic decisions down pat and rely too much on gut instincts from their playing days. I mean, maybe Ausmus breaks the trend, but if you really watched Mike Matheny's game management decisions in the playoffs and said, "Boy, I gotta get me some of that," then you deserve exactly what you're getting from Brad Ausmus.

As for Santana, maybe someone takes a flyer on him. I can't see him being a mop up middle reliever that comes in a blowout once a week, or someone who hangs out in the minors half the year and makes a spot start or two, or gets called up in July or August to be a sacrificial arm as some hot prospect approaches his innings limit. Best case is as the 5th starter somewhere?

I'm not even sure someone will take a one-year gamble on him at this point. I mean, Santana's arm is completely cooked (one shoulder capsule tear is hard enough to come back from -- two essentially means you're done) and even in 2012, when he was supposedly healthy (before his arm fell off), he was getting hit pretty hard. As I said, I'm sure someone will give him a NRI in February, but you're better off lighting money on fire than giving guaranteed cash to Santana at this point.

It'll be interesting to see what happens. Perfect situation for Ausmus, I suppose, but there's usually a reason players will spend a few years in the minors. It's a transition with learning pains and Detroit's supposed to be contending. I wonder if Leyland can be lured somewhere else or if he really means he's retiring.

As for Santana... I dunno, I can see teams willing to give him a small contract not much over league minimum with some incentives based on appearances. It'd be a low risk investment if Santana's willing to go for it and not hold out for more. But he's really gonna have to show he can stay healthy for a season before it'd be a good idea to throw any money at him. Basically the poster child why it's nuts to give pitchers those huge long term contracts.

 

[Timby]

In other news, we're twenty days away from the release of this year's Hall of Fame ballot to the BBWAA ... and finally, Jack Morris is in his last year of eligibility. If the BBWAA pulls a Jim Rice and puts him in this year, I'm going to murder every single writer who voted to do so.