Given Paul Krugman's popular stature and the way he's saying a return to Keynesianism will save capitalism, it seems interesting to discuss Abe's three arrows a bit.
First, the interesting tidbit:
An AEI blogger comments on the structural reform this way:
Said charts reveal that starting a business in Japan takes about 25 days and 8 procedures (on average, I presume.) The link: http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/05/the-most-important-of-shinzo-abes-three-arrows/
Business Insider reports first "details" on the third arrow:
Nope, there are no further details about how the government plans to increase private investment as yet. Further below.
Opalesque quotes from its roundtable discussion as follows:
Here's the link: http://www.opalesque.com/646673/are_necessary_to_succeed667.html
As usual, the best popular English-language source, if you make allowances as much as possible for bias, is The Economist. http://www.economist.com/news/brief...conomy-seems-different-man-one-whose-previous
My guess is that the new "private" investment is projected to be for government contracts for a new Japanese Imperial Army and Navy, since Abe is a virulent right winger. (Yes, he's the loon who justified drafting Korean women as army "comfort women.")
Abe's second arrow, fiscal stimulus, means an increase in government debt. The Economist "warns" that means the bond market would be destabilized. That means of course that the market will press for fiscal austerity.
Incidental, the reference to "animal spirits" comes straight from Keynes. Keynesianism in the end holds a psychological interpretation of economic crises.
The first arrow, a massive increase in money supply and quantitative easing for banks, is relatively quickly accomplished. Yet it has been demonstrated over and over that monetary policy is never a cure for economic depression.
The second arrow, fiscal stimulus by private investment, is probably imaginary.
The third arrow, structural reform, is probably the real intent of the program, and it is an essential part of an austerity program.
I venture to predict that Keynesianism as practiced in Japan, contra Krugman, will not save capitalism. And that the three arrows are essentially aimed at workers everywhere, not just in Japan.
Abe was PM before and nothing like this. The difference now I think is the "pivot to Asia." Japan under Abe has signed on to the latest anticommunist crusade, as witnessed by the row over those pointless islands. Leave them to Oliver Queen I say.
First, the interesting tidbit:
An AEI blogger comments on the structural reform this way:
Said charts reveal that starting a business in Japan takes about 25 days and 8 procedures (on average, I presume.) The link: http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/05/the-most-important-of-shinzo-abes-three-arrows/
Business Insider reports first "details" on the third arrow:
The latest tranche of Japan's growth strategy will aim to triple infrastructure exports and double farm exports by 2020, as well as boost private investment, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Friday.
The government will set a target for domestic private-sector investment of 70 trillion yen ($687 billion) annually, Abe said in a speech to business executivesand academics, the level before the 2008 financial crisis and up about 10 percent from the current figure.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/japan-fires-third-arrow-of-abenomics-2013-5#ixzz2UnkaDlcl
Nope, there are no further details about how the government plans to increase private investment as yet. Further below.
Opalesque quotes from its roundtable discussion as follows:
Here's the link: http://www.opalesque.com/646673/are_necessary_to_succeed667.html
As usual, the best popular English-language source, if you make allowances as much as possible for bias, is The Economist. http://www.economist.com/news/brief...conomy-seems-different-man-one-whose-previous
My guess is that the new "private" investment is projected to be for government contracts for a new Japanese Imperial Army and Navy, since Abe is a virulent right winger. (Yes, he's the loon who justified drafting Korean women as army "comfort women.")
Abe's second arrow, fiscal stimulus, means an increase in government debt. The Economist "warns" that means the bond market would be destabilized. That means of course that the market will press for fiscal austerity.
Incidental, the reference to "animal spirits" comes straight from Keynes. Keynesianism in the end holds a psychological interpretation of economic crises.
The first arrow, a massive increase in money supply and quantitative easing for banks, is relatively quickly accomplished. Yet it has been demonstrated over and over that monetary policy is never a cure for economic depression.
The second arrow, fiscal stimulus by private investment, is probably imaginary.
The third arrow, structural reform, is probably the real intent of the program, and it is an essential part of an austerity program.
I venture to predict that Keynesianism as practiced in Japan, contra Krugman, will not save capitalism. And that the three arrows are essentially aimed at workers everywhere, not just in Japan.
Abe was PM before and nothing like this. The difference now I think is the "pivot to Asia." Japan under Abe has signed on to the latest anticommunist crusade, as witnessed by the row over those pointless islands. Leave them to Oliver Queen I say.
