I don't see the J.J. Verse lasting more than three films--especially if the next one takes as long to make.
By then, I suspect that streaming media will be ubiquitous enough that it creates a viable market for niche shows. Paramount will then reevaluate the situation.
Not Paramount, CBS. Paramount only has rights to theatrical movies so they'd be totally out of the picture once the JJ Abrams movies are done with. (Abrams might be involved in a TV series, at least on the level of giving it his blessing.)
CBS is already talking with Netflix about bringing back Jericho via Netflix, which makes much more sense than trying to make a genre show work on CBS. There's no place on TV that seems right for Star Trek. Space opera in general is having a hard time surviving. Netflix seems like the best option, especially if they can develop a good working relationship with CBS.
Star Trek on Netflix could be a real wild card. Netflix sees itself as a competitor to HBO and Showtime, so it might be strikingly different from anything we've seen on broadcast. Why bother censoring sex, violence and bad language if the FCC is no longer relevant?
However, I doubt Netflix would want to get too crazy - their core audience would be existing fans, not just of the TV shows but also the movies.