Asteroid headed near Earth 2013!

[Danoz]

http://rt.com/news/paint-asteroid-earth-nasa-767/

Essentially, an asteroid with the destructive force of one thermo-nuclear bomb could potentially hit Earth (thought it appears somewhat unlikely). What this article really discusses is the idea that "painting" an asteroid to change it's relationship with the sun could throw it off course.

This raises a few questions, actually. How prepared are we for asteroids, really? This article doesn't instill confidence in our abilities to handle a threat on the scale of Deep Impact or Armageddon... would Earth just be toast?

We really need to stop eviscerating our space industry...

 

[Amaris]

We're likely fucked if there's an extinction level asteroid heading our way. We're too busy killing each other to focus on anything else.

 

[RoJoHen]

I'm less worried about stopping an asteroid and more worried that, by the time we see it coming, it'll be too late anyway.

 

[ares93]

Meh, the yanks will just send up a few nukes. Problem solved.

 

[Lindley]

Meh, the yanks will just send up a few nukes. Problem solved.

"And risk turning one dangerous falling object into many!"

 

[RandyS]

Where's Superman when we need him?

 

[ares93]

Meh, the yanks will just send up a few nukes. Problem solved.

"And risk turning one dangerous falling object into many!"

Not if the nuke is big enough.

And if isn't, they can blame it on the Muslims later... Seems to be SOP nowadays.

 

[Lindley]

Meh, the yanks will just send up a few nukes. Problem solved.

"And risk turning one dangerous falling object into many!"

Not if the nuke is big enough.

I don't think nukes work that way. Only the matter of a few molecules is converted to energy outright; the rest is just scattered. (And less scattered than it would be in atmosphere, since there would be no compression wave.)

This would turn a single, large threat into an expanding cone of little threats. Perhaps, if all of the pieces were small enough, those which hit would then burn up in the atmosphere (more surface area). But it also increases considerably the odds that some pieces would hit, compared to an intact asteroid.

No, the best approach is probably not to blow it up, but to nudge it off course more or less intact somehow.

 

[JiNX-01]

We're likely fucked if there's an extinction level asteroid heading our way. We're too busy killing each other to focus on anything else.

Relax, we're going to be wiped out in December.

 

[CorporalCaptain]

Anybody want to discuss placing a pyramid-shaped meteor screen in orbit to protect the Earth from incoming asteroids: how big it needs to be, how wide, how thick, what to make it out of, etc.?

 

[Lonemagpie]

It's about half the size of the Tunguska Object. Since the world didn't end in 1908, I'm not worrying.

OTOH, I remember seeing an interview on a science programme a few years back, with one of the people in charge of the search for near Earth objects. When asked how much warning we'd get realistically get of an incoming asteroid, he said "Oh, two or three minutes."

 

[Deranged Nasat]

Earth needs to learn how to stand up for itself. They throw asteroids at you, you throw asteroids back. Instead of anti-asteroid measures we should invest in harvesting asteroids and creating mobile mass drivers to hurl them back. Make the belt think twice before trying that crap again.

 

[Thor Damar]

^ "Would you like to know more?"

 

[Deranged Nasat]

^ "Would you like to know more?"

Damn bugs!

 

[Thor Damar]

As part of my 'Humans are the ultimate in sinister cynical evil bastards meme' I posit the following theory...

Spoiler: Starship troopers (the film)

That the asteroid was actually fired at Earth by the less than cuddly militarily inclined fascistic Federation government (no, not THAT Federation) as a Casus belli for the bug war. Course the film is a bleedingly obvious parody but it suits my dark nasty misanthropic nature to theorize so...

Now with regards to this asteroid what we need is a small hyperspace capable ship...

Oh wait.

 

[Deranged Nasat]

^ Even it that wasn't already intended to be the case, it would fit 100% with the film's blatantly cheerful desire to be more satirical than Swift, so I doubt anyone would reject the theory either way.

 

[Ar-Pharazon]

From an expert:

This story is sadly overhyped. The orbit of this object is known very well -- to about plus or minus 50 miles or so at its close approach in February 2013. Given that its close approach is almost 13000 miles above the surface of the Earth, you can see there really is no chance of it hitting in 2013.​

Or any time until about 2020, at which time our knowledge of its position becomes uncertain enough again to allow the slightest chance of an Earth impact. Detailed simluations have put the total chances of it impacting the Earth anytime from 2020 to 2057 at about 1 in 4550, which is lower than the background risk from objects of this size that we DON'T know about.​

It's kind of a pity, because the impact of an object this size would cause a spectacular explosion capable of local damage, like the Tunguska blast of 1908, but not regional or global damage. Chances are it would hit over the oceans or some other uninhabited area. Even if it was headed for a populated area, we would know of its path with enough lead time that we could mount a mission to divert or destroy it, or even just evacuate the threated area. Depending on where it came down, the cost in damages would probably be more than made up for by the income from tourists who come to watch the explosion.​

So, sorry to bear the bad news that an impact isn't at all likely!​

-- Mark​

Mark Hammergren, PhD​

Astronomer & Director, Astro-Science Workshop​

Adler Planetarium​

1300 S. Lake Shore Drive​

Chicago IL 60605​

 

[ares93]

So I suck at math. I know that. But how to you calculate the probability of an object hitting the earth, if you don't know anything about said object?

Is is this bloke pulling the numbers out of his arse?

 

[Lindley]

So I suck at math. I know that. But how to you calculate the probability of an object hitting the earth, if you don't know anything about said object?

Is is this bloke pulling the numbers out of his arse?

Something along the lines of p(any given orbit intersecting Earth's) * p(estimated asteroid density), I would imagine. Although probably more complex.

You can do a lot with statistics even when you don't know very much.

 

[M'Sharak]

http://rt.com/news/paint-asteroid-earth-nasa-767/

Essentially, an asteroid with the destructive force of one thermo-nuclear bomb could potentially hit Earth (thought it appears somewhat unlikely). What this article really discusses is the idea that "painting" an asteroid to change it's relationship with the sun could throw it off course.

This raises a few questions, actually. How prepared are we for asteroids, really? This article doesn't instill confidence in our abilities to handle a threat on the scale of Deep Impact or Armageddon... would Earth just be toast?

Funny you should ask about that, as this just turned up in my news feed and addresses that very topic:

[yt]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXfM5NAbsaQ[/yt]

We really need to stop eviscerating our space industry...

You'll get no argument from me.