Michio Kaku's "Physics of the future"

[Romulan_spy]

I just finished reading the book "Physics of the future" by Physicist and Futurist Michio Kaku where he describes his vision of the year 2100. What do people think? Is he too optimistic about the future? I think most of the technology that he describes will happen. But I do think he might be too optimistic in some places. He is correct that science is a double edged sword. People were very optimistic about the future at the beginning of the 20th century but then came WW1 and WW2 which devastated much of the world. I don't think it will be smooth sailing to 2100. I think the 21st century will be filled with great achievements as well as great perils and there will probably be some pretty nasty wars and such. I don't think humanity will ever reach a perfect utopia. Technology will continue to improve our lives in a lot of amazing ways while also creating new and terrifying dangers.

 

[Shatnertage]

I haven't read it--what are some of his predictions, and what technologies does he describe?

 

[KJbushway]

I do believe he is too optimistic. however, the human race is still young. most poeple can't resort to violence. think that in the future, far future when we are jumping galaxies, we will be a lot more civilized.

 

[Romulan_spy]

I haven't read it--what are some of his predictions, and what technologies does he describe?

Here are some his techs and predictions:
- Internet in your contact lens.
- People will be able to access realistic virtual environments in their contact lenses for entertainment or business purposes.
Computer chips will be so cheap and small they will be everywhere. Everything will be "smart". Your clothes will have chips to monitor your health, the wall in your home will be a computer screen or change colors or patterns on command. Your car will hover and drive itself.
- People will be able to interact with their computers with their mind.
- Intelligent robots will be common place for jobs that are repetitive or dangerous. Humans will still be needed for jobs that require creativity, imagination and pattern recognition.
- Objects will be made of nanomachines that will be able to reshape the object into anything.
- We will map the human brain.
- Nanomachines will be able to go inside the human body to repair it, making invasive surgery obsolete.
- Most diseases will be cured or slowed down indefinitely. People will live hundreds of years.
- Fusion reactors will be invented.
- Space elevator will be built.
- Humans will explore our solar system using solar sails, ion or antimatter propulsion.
- We will explore other stars using millions of nano size probes.
- Science and technology will create new industries and wealth. - The world will become a global community. Nations will still exist to manage local issues but won't be as important. Finally, by the year 2100, humanity will become a Type I civilization, harnessing all the energy of our planet.

 

[TIN_MAN]

I haven't read the book either, but going just by the above list, I'd say he's waaay too optimistic. The list seems to be heavy on biochip and nanobot stuff, if this is typical of the book then there seems to be some tunnel vision bias there? All these things may come sooner or later, but likely later than sooner I would guess.

One thing that people often forget in such speculation is the human factor. Back in the early 1900's they said we'd have jet packs and flying cars, and Martian colonies by now? Thing is, we might have had all that by now if, for instance, the corporate/military industrial complex hadn't invested heavily in maintaining the status quo.

The lethargy of the people doesn't help either, the masses are notoriously short sighted, if it doesn't produce immediate tangible benefit or distract them from their boring lives by some endorphin inducing drug/toy/sport then they aren't interested.

All this technology is getting ever more expensive as well, the more expensive it becomes the less likely it is to be financed and developed for the good of all, unless of course the aforementioned corporate/military industrial complex gets involved, for reasons of “national security” of course, in which case it will get funded, but will definitely not be for the good of all.

So many socio/political/economic reasons need to be considered to temper such sugar plum visions.

 

[infinix]

My comments are in BOLD.

Here are some his techs and predictions:
- Internet in your contact lens. Maybe, though it'll be a luxury item.


- People will be able to access realistic virtual environments in their contact lenses for entertainment or business purposes. No. Nobody will ever get anything done if VR is allowed to be realistic.

- Computer chips will be so cheap and small they will be everywhere. Everything will be "smart". Your clothes will have chips to monitor your health, the wall in your home will be a computer screen or change colors or patterns on command. Your car will hover and drive itself. Almost definitely. We are well on our way.

- People will be able to interact with their computers with their mind. This is already happening, but its very specialized and I highly doubt it will be available to the general public.

- Intelligent robots will be common place for jobs that are repetitive or dangerous. Humans will still be needed for jobs that require creativity, imagination and pattern recognition. Huh? Robots are great at pattern recognition. This is also almost definite.

- Objects will be made of nanomachines that will be able to reshape the object into anything. No. Not without reinventing thermodynamics.

- We will map the human brain. Define "map"

- Nanomachines will be able to go inside the human body to repair it, making invasive surgery obsolete. Maybe

- Most diseases will be cured or slowed down indefinitely. People will live hundreds of years. No. Not without a ton of other inventions to sustain the new breed of long lived humans.

- Fusion reactors will be invented. There is already a fusion reactor. The problem is that it isn't efficient. You can't get more energy out of it then you put it. If he means Cold Fusion reactor, then good luck on that. Scientists have basically abandoned it.

- Space elevator will be built. With what material?

- Humans will explore our solar system using solar sails, ion or antimatter propulsion. Solar Sails and Ion propulsion maybe. Antimatter never. We know how to produce antimatter, and it is ridiculously expensive.

- We will explore other stars using millions of nano size probes. Why nano sized?

- Science and technology will create new industries and wealth. - The world will become a global community. Nations will still exist to manage local issues but won't be as important. Finally, by the year 2100, humanity will become a Type I civilization, harnessing all the energy of our planet. Science already creates new industries and wealth. I have always questioned the idea of harnessing all the energy of our planet. What exactly does that mean? We tap all of the oil/natural gas/uranium reserves? And then what?

 

[CaptJack]

I've almost finished it. It is an impressive collection of ideas, though I do fear that he is being too optimistic in some cases. The organization of the information is sensible, though I wish some ideas were covered in greater depth.

I do hope he is right though. A lot of these things coming to pass will lead to a far better world than the one we know today.

 

[KJbushway]

we are not close to what you agreed with him on, computer chips.

 

[scotthm]

Here are some his techs and predictions:
- Internet in your contact lens.

Why not just have it wired directly into people's brains and skip the eyes altogether?

- People will be able to access realistic virtual environments in their contact lenses for entertainment or business purposes.

As stated earlier, realistic virtual reality available to everyone would effectively end civilization.

Computer chips will be so cheap and small they will be everywhere. Everything will be "smart". Your clothes will have chips to monitor your health, the wall in your home will be a computer screen or change colors or patterns on command.

Probably true. Big Brother will have a lot more information to sift through.

Your car will hover and drive itself.

Drive itself--yes. Hover--no. It would take too much energy.

- People will be able to interact with their computers with their mind.

Probably. Governments will be able to interact with your mind while you sleep.

- Intelligent robots will be common place for jobs that are repetitive or dangerous. Humans will still be needed for jobs that require creativity, imagination and pattern recognition.

People will be too busy playing in their virtual realities to work.

- Most diseases will be cured or slowed down indefinitely. People will live hundreds of years.

If people could live healthy lives for hundreds of years we'd either have to stop producing new generations or find new worlds to live on pretty quickly. I don't think either of those will happen in the next 100 years. Life prolonging technology will probably come to pass but I predict it will be withheld from most people.

- Space elevator will be built.

I don't think so. I think there are too many variables to account for.

- We will explore other stars using millions of nano size probes.

Human technology won't be visiting other stars in the next 100 years unless something totally unpredictable happens.

- Science and technology will create new industries and wealth.

Almost surely.

- The world will become a global community. Nations will still exist to manage local issues but won't be as important.

We're heading down this road fast already.

Finally, by the year 2100, humanity will become a Type I civilization, harnessing all the energy of our planet.

Very doubtful. I don't see us harnessing tornadoes, hurricanes, or earthquakes (at the very least) in the next 100 years.

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[Jadzia]

- Internet in your contact lens.
- People will be able to access realistic virtual environments in their contact lenses for entertainment or business purposes.

Unsure. What would be it's power source? Could a wireless antenna be made that small and close to the body?

Computer chips will be so cheap and small they will be everywhere. Everything will be "smart". Your clothes will have chips to monitor your health...

I hope not. Smart things break down. They can decide to not do what you want them to do. Clothes work just fine as they are without chips in them.

, the wall in your home will be a computer screen or change colors or patterns on command.

I don't need it. I'm happy with paint. Paint doesn't need batteries. Paint doesn't cause eye strain.

Your car will hover and drive itself.

I don't think we will invent antigravity that quickly.

- People will be able to interact with their computers with their mind.

Possibly, but will it be efficient? When I use a computer, I think about many things, not just about using the computer. How will a direct interface distinguish between relevant and irrelevant thoughts? Also, I may imagine typing something, but only as an idea of what I could do. How will a direct interface distinguish between actions I'm considering, and actions I've decided upon?

- Intelligent robots will be common place for jobs that are repetitive or dangerous. Humans will still be needed for jobs that require creativity, imagination and pattern recognition.

This has been promised since the 19th century. It requires theories and understanding, rather than advances in hardware.

- Objects will be made of nanomachines that will be able to reshape the object into anything.
- Nanomachines will be able to go inside the human body to repair it, making invasive surgery obsolete.

Nanomachines that capable would be lethal. I doubt they could navigate something as complex as a body, and be able to identify what should/shouldn't be in surgical terms.

- We will map the human brain.

Maybe.

- Most diseases will be cured or slowed down indefinitely. People will live hundreds of years.

Medicine isn't that smart. New diseases will replace old ones. Germs can mutate. Plenty of people die from accidents. People have to die of something.

- Fusion reactors will be invented.

Maybe.

- Space elevator will be built.

It won't work, unless we invent antigravity.

- Humans will explore our solar system using solar sails, ion or antimatter propulsion.
- We will explore other stars using millions of nano size probes.
- Science and technology will create new industries and wealth.

Maybe.

- The world will become a global community. Nations will still exist to manage local issues but won't be as important. Finally, by the year 2100, humanity will become a Type I civilization, harnessing all the energy of our planet.

A global community under what umbrella? Islam?

I find the idea of a Type I civilization to be unfeasible. You can't hope to micromanage that much of the earth without being willing to dispose of ethics.

 

[Shatnertage]

Seems like a lot of this is assuming we find a cheap, limitless source of energy. scotthm mentioned hover cars would take too much energy, and I've got to think that adding the ability to hover would kick your gas mileage down to about .5 MPG. Plus, insurance on something that can fly and by driven by the average idiot would be through the roof!

I've read a few futurist books in the past few years, and they usually promise vast changes a few decades off. I'd be more interested in hypothesizing what incremental changes will mean in the near-future.

 

[KJbushway]

Back to the future showed what the 2000's would be, I don't see most of what is shown. Auto forming clothes, I wish it seems like Walmart is always out of my size of pants.

 

[sojourner]

As the saying goes, sounds like you're just too big for your britches.

 

[Romulan_spy]

Seems like a lot of this is assuming we find a cheap, limitless source of energy. scotthm mentioned hover cars would take too much energy, and I've got to think that adding the ability to hover would kick your gas mileage down to about .5 MPG. Plus, insurance on something that can fly and by driven by the average idiot would be through the roof.

Kaku argues that most of the gas that a car consumes is to overcome friction. Therefore, a hover car would actually have much better gas mileage. Think of it like when you go ice skating. You only need a little push to get you started. He believes room temperature superconductors which are being researched today are the key to making a real hover car. Of course, you would need special roads. The hover car would hover by "pushing" against the magnetic field in the road.

 

[KJbushway]

there is also the idea that rail cars. Bascially there is a magnetic strip going down each side of the road and it controls the car like train. you have a regular engine inside as a back up, but you just hop in and off you go not having to pay attention.

 

[scotthm]

Kaku argues that most of the gas that a car consumes is to overcome friction. Therefore, a hover car would actually have much better gas mileage.

Hover cars would have to overcome much of the same friction (the wind against the car's body), and would additionally have to counteract the force of gravity. Also, by removing the friction of the car against the road it would have to use more energy to maneuver the car then today's automobiles do.

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[KJbushway]

you have to remember that trucks that carry tons of cargo might have to hover one day as well. We need a small portable power source that puts out zero deadly/harmful radiation and put out some serious amps.

 

[Shatnertage]

Kaku argues that most of the gas that a car consumes is to overcome friction. Therefore, a hover car would actually have much better gas mileage.

Hover cars would have to overcome much of the same friction (the wind against the car's body), and would additionally have to counteract the force of gravity. Also, by removing the friction of the car against the road it would have to use more energy to maneuver the car then today's automobiles do.

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I imagine braking would take a lot more energy, too, without the road's friction slowing you down.

 

[Meredith]

I think concerning cyber technology the tech described in "Ghost in the Shell" would be possible if not in wide spread use by 2100.

 

[Lindley]

I've got to think that adding the ability to hover would kick your gas mileage down to about .5 MPG.

Fun fact: A Cessna 172, which is about as close as you can get to a flying car these days, runs at an effective equivalent of approximately 15 MPG (heavily depending on wind conditions of course).