Adrian Gonzalez is now out of the NL West? Great day for the Giants. 
MLB Offseason 2010-11
- Thread starter Mr. Laser Beam
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Braves pick up Scott Linebrink and George Sherrill. I'm impressed.
^ Flat breezy time! 
Kris Medlen keeps his bill flat too. Should be interesting.
No pun intended.
The deal is reportedly worth 7 years/$142 million.
I wasn't expecting this at all. The Red Sox dishing out a huge long-term deal to one player (Adrian Gonzalez) is one thing, but two?! I mean, Crawford is a great player and all, but I'm really, really shocked by this.
Hopefully he doesn't break down before that contract ends.
Did someone roofie Theo at the winter meetings? He's gone nuts this week (300 million, if you believe the Gonzalez signing rumors).
That said, I like it for several reasons:
-Takes Crawford away from the Rays, Yankees, and Angels, hurting 3 rivals. He was the Angels' main plan, and Yankees were pretty hard over on him as well. he was also their fallback plan to at least get him if the Lee deal doesn't work out. By taking him away, puts a ton of pressure to get Lee at all costs, or end up with nothing out of the whole mess.
-Don't have to face Crawford anymore, who always terrorized the Sox.
-Defense, offense, speed, he's a nice player to add, and fixes the LF position for a while. More money/years than you'd hope for, but that's been the market, so considering the Werth deal, this isn't all that bad, really...
-Still under the luxury cap (by about 8.5 million, give or take). Shockingly, after all this, but still not over the limit. Plus since they've now signed a Type A free agent, it doesn't hurt to get one for the bullpen (not gonna lose a draft pick for a RP, but now that we've already popped that cherry, might as well keep going). Downs is an ideal fit for the Sox, so hopefully they use some of the money they've got left to ink him in the next day or two...
That said, I like it for several reasons:
-Takes Crawford away from the Rays, Yankees, and Angels, hurting 3 rivals. He was the Angels' main plan, and Yankees were pretty hard over on him as well. he was also their fallback plan to at least get him if the Lee deal doesn't work out. By taking him away, puts a ton of pressure to get Lee at all costs, or end up with nothing out of the whole mess.
-Don't have to face Crawford anymore, who always terrorized the Sox.
-Defense, offense, speed, he's a nice player to add, and fixes the LF position for a while. More money/years than you'd hope for, but that's been the market, so considering the Werth deal, this isn't all that bad, really...
-Still under the luxury cap (by about 8.5 million, give or take). Shockingly, after all this, but still not over the limit. Plus since they've now signed a Type A free agent, it doesn't hurt to get one for the bullpen (not gonna lose a draft pick for a RP, but now that we've already popped that cherry, might as well keep going). Downs is an ideal fit for the Sox, so hopefully they use some of the money they've got left to ink him in the next day or two...
He's got nice power numbers, but that's about it. Gotta love that .190 average.
And in other news the Mets add the final piece to what should be a champsionship roster...welcome to Queens DJ Carrasco! Woo hoo!
The Red Sox will still not win again for a very long time.
This is baseball, one player means nothing, it's a team. The Red Sox won in 2004 because they were a team, they won in 2007 because they were a team, since then they were just a bunch of players on the field at the same time.
Until they get the "We are a team! We can kick ass!" feeling back they will be going no where no matter how much money they waste.
This is baseball, one player means nothing, it's a team. The Red Sox won in 2004 because they were a team, they won in 2007 because they were a team, since then they were just a bunch of players on the field at the same time.
Until they get the "We are a team! We can kick ass!" feeling back they will be going no where no matter how much money they waste.
The deal is reportedly worth 7 years/$142 million.
I wasn't expecting this at all. The Red Sox dishing out a huge long-term deal to one player (Adrian Gonzalez) is one thing, but two?! I mean, Crawford is a great player and all, but I'm really, really shocked by this.
Hopefully he doesn't break down before that contract ends.
The salary is the Washington Nationals' fault.
It wasn't that long ago when Rickey Henderson and Kirby Puckett became baseball's first $3 million per year players. Now $3 million can't even get you a veteran No. 5 starter with a 5.00 ERA with more walks than strikeouts.
Now are the Sox gonna spend another $150 million on Cliff Lee?
Actually, I was expecting Crawford to get more than $142 million thanks to the Werth deal.
I don't think the Sox are going to seriously try to get Lee. They might offer him something just to bump the price up for the Yankees, though. But the Yankees have to get Cliff Lee, now, and I think they're going to do whatever it takes to get him.
I don't think the Sox are going to seriously try to get Lee. They might offer him something just to bump the price up for the Yankees, though. But the Yankees have to get Cliff Lee, now, and I think they're going to do whatever it takes to get him.
Melky Cabrera is going to the Kansas City Royals. Lazy tub of lard. I hope he and Frenchy run into each other in the outfield.
Complete nonsense. Just because that's been more or less true of the Yankees in the 2000s, doesn't mean it's true of everyone. And hell, even the Yankees overcame that in 2009. Sox were a couple outs from going to the World Series in 2008, were they "just a bunch of guys" that year? Beckett has a better game, they're in, and probably have another ring.
And the 2007 Red Sox aren't ALL that different from the 2010 ones. Plenty of the same guys that you say were great teammates in 2007 now hate each other? They won 89 games with a historic level of injury to almost all of their key players, can't imagine that big upgrades to several of those spots is going to be a big step back.
You may WISH them to fall off the earth for paying out big contracts, like the Yankees in the early part of the decade, but looks like Theo made some good pickups here (regardless of the money, which is nuts, but that seems to be the market right now), and expect the Sox to be a pretty good force for quite a while. On top of that, they've got about $50 million coming off the books next year, so even after factoring in 22 or so for Gonzalez, they're still poised to make a big splash next year too, and aren't losing a big piece they'll have to replace (biggest parts are Ortiz, Drew, and Papelbon. DH can be had easy, Drew has Kalish inhouse as a replacement, Papelbon has Bard behind him). Fielder would look pretty good as a DH behind Gonzalez, wouldn't he?
That Crawford deal is terrible. He's a speed guy who still manages to strike out at least 100 times and then just so happened to have a pretty good contract year. What separates him from, say, Johnny Damon?
I'm having a really hard time wrapping my head around the fact that a guy who's one lower-body injury away from being a scrap hitter, and has a career OPS of of .781, has the ninth-richest contract in baseball history.
I mean, what was the thought process?
Carl Crawford, eh? What's his story?
Well, he can't hit lefties, he doesn't walk much at all, has very little power, but he's pretty fast. He plays left field, too, so his speed's going to come in really handy playing in front of a giant fucking wall.
MAKE THAT MAN THE HIGHEST-PAID OUTFIELDER EVER
I'm having a really hard time wrapping my head around the fact that a guy who's one lower-body injury away from being a scrap hitter, and has a career OPS of of .781, has the ninth-richest contract in baseball history.
I mean, what was the thought process?
Eh, not sure why, but I'll bite at this one
True, a definite plus. He's an absolute terror on the basepaths. Is he likely to still be that in 7 years? Probably not, but should be another 3-4 years before that starts to tail off...
Is that a lot? Doesn't seem like that many, in comparison to most other MLB players. Youkilis is a great player, strikes out a little more than 100 a year. Jeter's good for a little over 100 a year, on average. If Crawford was hitting 150s, or trying to break the record like Reynolds (now with Baltimore), you'd have a case. (211 last year). 100 doesn't seem like a lot. Has a .300 career average, so seems to be making enough contact to do alright. Does pretty good at pitches/plate appearance, so seems that even when he does strike out, he's making the pitcher really work for it, so that's still a benefit.
That line's garbage. Seems pretty in line with his career stats, doesn't appear to be an outlier. He beat his previous HR total by 1, and RBIs by 9 (not under his control, so not a great stat, but still), other than that, none of his numbers beat previous career highs. Just seemed to have another good, consistent year. Know they've said he's tried in recent years to worry a little less about SB and more about power, so if speed is going to eventually give out, thats a good road to be heading down.
8 years younger, healthy, not a defensive liability... If you mean old-school Johnny Damon, it's a good point, not that much. Crawford has better speed, and a better arm (doesn't take much), but otherwise, probably pretty comparable. Johnny Damon worked out ok for the Sox, though, so not really a negative. That's actually the career path Crawford hopefully turns down as his speed slows down a bit, adding power to replace it.
If you mean contract-wise, more a function of the market than anything else. Right now, that's what big players are signing for. Johnny Damon, just past his prime, got 4 years at 14/year. If he'd been younger when he signed that one, maybe add another year and million to it? Right now, 7 years for good young players seems to be the market, and the price has gone up. Definite overpay, but it is what it is. Once Werth signed his deal (7 years, 18 per), hard to argue Crawford isn't 2 million a year better than him.
WERTH is a guy that should concern them at that money. Couple good years, 150 Ks a year, and even in a lefty-heavy lineup, the Phillies didn't trust him to bat in the middle of it, and had to hide him later down the order.
He's not Michael Bourne or Rajai Davis, where it's all speed, no power, no OBP, and .280 average. The guy's still a 18-20 HR hitter, 300 average, and able to hit in the heart of the order. Think you're selling him short in order to make your point.
Even all that said, other than big sluggers, how many guys are NOT one lower body injury away from being worthless players?
OPS stat isn't going to do you a lot of favors if you're more of a SB guy than a power guy, but yeah, not ideal. On the other hand, if you discount his 2008 season when he was hurt, and his first two years (where he should have been in the minors, but the Rays sucked, so they played him in the majors), he's at least in the low/mid-800s.
I can only guess, but here's my ideas:
-Takes him away from the Rays, and makes sure the Yankees or Angels can't get him, all teams that are direct rivals.
-Money is too high, but good player that maybe they can project into making that Johnny Damon turn from speed to power as he ages and loses a step.
-Looking at potential Free Agents the next couple off seasons, maybe couldn't find anyone they liked more, and they've got to fill LF this year. Next year, RF empties out with Drew's contract gone, and they want to put a rookie (Kalish) there, so needed more than a stopgap in LF so they weren't trying to fill both at once.
-More hurting the Yankees, but Crawford was projected to slide nicely into the Yankees' lineup, and a definite if Lee didn't sign with the Yanks. By taking Crawford away, it forces them to go all-in for Lee, or else they lose out on all the FAs they wanted and have to gut the farm system to try to fill holes. Yankees called and added an extra year and 20 million to their offer right after this went down, so seems like it worked. And if the Rangers or Angels man up and get Lee, it looks even better!
.260 hitter against lefties last 3 years, seems ok to me. Definitely better against righties, but that's true of most LH hitters.
true enough, about 45/year the past 3 years (easiest sortable stat on ESPN when looking at splits). Not sure what the league average is, but Longoria had 72 last year, so Crawford is definitely not a walker...
15-20 HRs isn't really 'very little power'. Not a 40 HR threat, but definitely servicable.
True. Between him and Ellsbury, think they've led the AL in SB every year since 2003 or 2004? Good for defense as well as offense. Between Crawford, Ellsbury, and Drew, should be a pretty sick defensive OF, no?
yeah, just might. Means he can play in a lot more, taking away the cheap shots, and stuff that hits the wall, no one was catching anyway. You're also aware that 50% of his games will be played places that DON'T feature the Green Monster? It doesn't travel with the team, so he should be just fine in those other parks, and defensive value will be appreciated there.
Additionally, you just spent half your rant talking about how his speed will eventually give out, so fortunately, he's in a spot where as it goes, it shouldn't hurt him as bad as if he was somewhere with a huge LF to patrol, right?
A quibble, but he's not the highest paid. Manny is the highest paid OF ever (his contract with the Dodgers, not the one with the Sox). Crawford IS the 2nd highest contract given to an OF, though, so you were close. Manny's contract with the Sox came in 3rd.
Look, I don't love the contract in terms of years/dollars, but not really my money, so I'm over that part. If it was 5 years, 85 million, I'd be thrilled, but the market is what it is, and it's nice to see the Sox actually USING their big-market status rather than crying poor and bitching about the Yankees doing it all the time. We had needs, had available space under the luxury cap to fill the needs, and so got the best players that were available and filled the needs.
I'd have probably been happier with Holliday in LF right now, working on the 2nd year or his contract, instead of Crawford starting his, but that train sailed, and this is what was available. He's a nice piece that will help the team, takes him directly off a competitors' roster and keeps him from 2 others that wanted him badly (would have been PERFECT with the Angels, not sure why they didn't jump earlier on him), and even made the Yankees make another dumb move to counter it with the Lee offer, so seems like an all-around good thing. The money is too much, but I'm not paying his salary, so *meh* to that. Doesn't seem like the sort of player we're going to hate, so I can live with the overpay...
The thing is, speed is horribly over-valued in baseball.
He's not that much of a contact hitter, though; he only makes contact 82 percent of the time, and he swings out of the zone a lot (hence the strikeouts).
Power isn't generally something that develops out of nowhere when a player's 28, 29 years old, unless there's some chemical enhancement involved. In any event, with 81 games at Fenway, Crawford focusing on power won't mean jack if he doesn't learn how to hit to the opposite field; otherwise, he'll just be clanging line drives off the Monster.
The difference between a .280 average and a .300 average is, oh, fifteen hits a year, which isn't all that statistically significant. Crawford does lack plate judgment, as evidenced by his strikeouts and inability to draw walks, and that's not a skill that manifests itself with age. High OBP guys tend to stay that way for their entire careers, same as the low-OBP players. I already mentioned the power thing (Crawford's career SLG is .444), and if you turn Crawford's triples into doubles (which will happen at Fenway), his slugging percentage drops quite a bit.
The Phillies wanted to keep Werth, badly, but they didn't want to go in for seven years on him, justifiably so. The age thing is the issue with Werth. If it were a four-year contract and the choice was between Werth and Crawford, I'd probably take Werth. I wouldn't want either of them for seven.
Ellsbury's a barely average left fielder, and he sucks out loud in center (-18.6 UZR). I'll be surprised if Cameron doesn't take center and Ellsbury isn't traded. I still laugh at the Baseball Prospectus assessment of Ellsbury in CF -- "Lost in a hedge maze." People just think Ellsbury's a decent fielder because it's the same thing as Victorino: If you're fast and dive occasionally, you'll make some Web Gems and nobody on television really pays attention to your first couple steps or your route.
"Rant?"
Anyway, you're missing my point. Yeah, left field in Fenway is a pretty good place for Crawford, as it works for his speed and it covers up his noodle arm (seriously, he has no arm strength). But the Red Sox are paying $142 million for a guy to play a left field that any below-average outfielder can manage without embarrassing himself too much. There'd be more value for the Sox, and the contract would be far less silly, if he were in center or right, but Crawford steadfastly refuses to play center field, so there's that. Anything that is hit between 310 feet (Monster) and 380ish (normal distance) that Crawford might catch in another park is now a base hit. It negates a huge amount of his value. My point is that Crawford's biggest value is his speed. He isn't particularly disciplined at the plate. He strikes out quite a bit. He has some power. He has no arm. He plays left field. Yay?
A quibble, but he's not the highest paid. Manny is the highest paid OF ever (his contract with the Dodgers, not the one with the Sox). Crawford IS the 2nd highest contract given to an OF, though, so you were close. Manny's contract with the Sox came in 3rd.[/quote]
Last I checked, no outfielder has ever signed a contract for $142 million. Put another way, Carl Crawford is now earning over $55,000 a day to be halfway decent at baseball.
A better way to fill the need would have been to sign Adam Dunn, as the tiny left field would have hidden his defensive deficiencies, and he would have produced a shit-ton more runs than Crawford ever will.
I'm not saying Crawford's terrible. But he's not a superstar, either. He's a serviceable hitter with poor plate discipline and excellent speed. He's certainly not worth the biggest outfield contract in baseball history.
Anyway, I'm sure this contract won't be bad by the end of it, as in 2017, salaries will go so sky-high that even Jeff Francoeur will be paid $20 million per year. But how the fuck did Werth and Crawford get more money than Holliday? Good Lord.
No argument there
Still not really convinced 100 strikeouts a year is a lot. Not great, but gotta be fairly low on the overall scale. Most of the people we consider GREAT hitters get a lot more than that, and the people they talk about as low strikeout, tough outs are still striking out 50, 60, 70 times a year...
Disagree with this, to an extent. Players getting older, adding mass (or just fat), plus diminishing speed forcing them to change their game, it does seem to happen. Damon was probably a pretty good comp for that. Used to be just a speed guy, really, but power went up a bit as the speed went down. Haven't seen any PED rumors around him...
Are HRs all you count for power? For a lefty, the Monster usually works out great. Power still gets you a HR in RF, and anything slapped the other way is good for a single or double off the Monster. His spray chart seemed like it would work out alright in Fenway, and while he'll lose some doubles that turn into singles, anything to right or the triangle in center has potential to be a 3B with his speed.
Just pointing out that lumping him in with guys like Davis or Bourne, like you were doing, was a silly stance to take, as he's not a pure speed guy. OPS isn't great for him, but he's not a guy that can only steal. Can't steal first...
Given a short contract (4-5 years), I'd probably take Werth, if he was cheaper. Mostly because the Sox are now lefty-heavy. Put the two next to each other, same money and years, and I think Crawford provides more value. If Werth was so great, why wasn't he, as a righty, batting in the middle of the lefty-heavy Phillies? Made they vulnerable to the LOOGIE all the time, but they didn't move him up, and they put crappier guys in that spot instead. Kinda concerning. Plus he played in a bandbox, so we'll see how much moving to a MLB-sized ballpark changes his numbers.
I'll give you that Ellsbury and UZR don't seem to get along. Especially his CF ranking, but not sure where you got your numbers, as they don't seem to match up. Fangraphs has Ellsbury at +10 UZR in LF, and +0.1 in CF. His worst CF ranking was -9.7 in 2009, so not sure how you got to -18.6...
Either way, seems to have a bad first step a lot of the time. His speed usually gets that back, but would be nice if, with time, he stopped taking that first bad step. Either way, I'll take him.
Perhaps it's been lost in the bad stats and hyperbole?"Rant?"
works out good, because that's where he's playing.
where are those guys on the market, though? Dunn got 4/60, give or take, and he's certainly not just below-average in the field! The UZR number, which you wanted to use to show how bad Ellsbury is, has Dunn at -71.5 career in LF. That's almost MANNY levels of suck out there.
Plus, if you want to bash Crawford for 100 strikeouts, Dunn is good for almost 200 a year. He's one of those "3 true outcomes" guys. He's a .250 hitter, so if it's not a HR, you're not going anywhere.
to an extent, and only for 81 of the 162 games. His value is just fine the other half of the time. And maybe his speed works out ok in Fenway as well, as he can play shallower and still get back to the wall, he can dig out balls in the corner and keep it a single rather than a double, and can shift more towards center, letting CF play more towards right, and everyone covers more ground that way. He'd be great in RF with that speed, but doesn't have the arm for it...
Seem to be discounting all of his pluses in order to just mention speed and dismiss it. While i don't love the years/money, I think that's really the only bit you can legitimately bash, as it's too much of both. He's not a 20 million dollar player, probably more like 14 (drew's contract would have been perfect for him), but that's the market. If not Crawford, who would you have them go after? Manny's probably the next best FA LF, or maybe Damon. We've tried both of those already...
Check again, I even told you who it was. Manny's deal with the sox was for 8/160, so beats that in dollars. Manny's deal with the Dodgers was for 25 or 26, so beats it in AAV. either stat, Manny is your guy.
It's not a ton, but it's still quite a bit. If he didn't swing at so many pitches out of the zone and had better judgment at the plate, he'd put more balls in play, which would then better utilize his speed, which is his greatest asset.
Damon seems to be an exception, and even then, as he got older, his SLG still stayed pretty much in-tune with his prior career stats (outside of 2006, when he suddenly cranked 24 home runs out of nowhere). I wasn't accusing him of juicing, either -- note that I said power "isn't generally something that develops out of nowhere." Generally. He slugged more this year than he ever has. Could he have added power at age 28? Possibly. Is it likely? Not particularly. I'd predict his usual 300/350/450 going forward, especially since, as I pointed out, plate judgment isn't something that players just magically develop in the middle of their careers. (Otherwise, Francoeur would have figured it out by now.)
No, but as I said, Crawford has slugged .444 for his career. He's not an Ichiro slap hitter, and he certainly isn't Juan Pierre, but he's not a mammoth, either. If I'm paying a guy $20 million a year, I expect more run production than Crawford puts out.
It'll be interesting to see how it works out; Tropicana is basically a plus triples / minus everything else park, while Fenway is plus plus doubles / minus triples.
You brought up Davis and Bourne, not me.
Anyway, one of the key early findings of the sabermetric community was that speed players with a broad base of secondary skills tend to age very well (which is why David Justice was still mashing for Oakland when everyone else thought he was finished). The problem is that Crawford doesn't have a broad set of secondary skills; his skill set is "he can run really fast." Plate discipline? No. Strike zone judgment? No. Huge power numbers? No.
Fangraphs WAR has an absolutely fucked-up valuation of UZR, since it thinks Crawford's been a 7-win player on defense for the last few years, and no player handles enough chances to be worth that many wins on defense. It takes an entire season of above average hitting to be worth 2 - 3 wins. Anyway, I got 18.6 from Fangraphs itself. UZR aside, though, basically every other defensive metric says Ellsbury can't play center.
Like I said, hedge maze. I'll be pretty shocked if he isn't traded. His only average defensive position is left field, where he won't be playing anymore, and he isn't exactly good at the plate, so I'm sure the Red Sox are hoping that they can dump him on some team that likes a speedster.
Christ, you're being dense. With the money they're paying him (with his speedy defense being one of his biggest selling points), that money is absolutely wasted in left field, where a drunken monkey could field a ball in the 10' x 10' space. If they could put him in right or center, it'd make a lot more sense. But they can't, because Crawford won't play center. (Even as a last resort, he was a stubborn bitch about it in Tampa.) There's a reason the left fielders who have historically gotten mammoth contracts have been mashers like Manny -- because you can hide their defense in left field and then live with the offense. It makes no sense to pay a jillion bucks to a guy with some glaring offensive holes and put him in left field, where his defense is wasted.
Put Dunn in Fenway's left field, and his offensive production far outweighs the occasional defensive mishaps he'd have.
Honestly, the Sox would have been better off running an outfield of Ellsbury / Cameron / Kalish and throwing money at Lee, since they could really use a solid starting rotation. (Of course, Cliff Lee getting seven years at age 32 is a whole other can of worms.)
You're absolutely right -- he's not the highest-paid outfielder in history, and that's my goof.
You seem to be operating under the idea that I'm arguing that Crawford is a scrub, and I haven't said that. But the guy's a left fielder with a career OBP of fucking .337 and has hovered around 110 OPS+ for his career. And now he is the highest-paid outfielder in baseball right now, which is absurd.
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