The Australian Election Thread

[Botany Bay]

Latest Nielsen poll :

2PP : Coal 51- ALP 49

Assuming a uniform swing, this washes out as a Coalition victory by 11 seats.

So, this is where we are at : The ALP's only chance in this election is if the man they knifed for not being able to win the election can convince people to vote for his assassin.

I'd love to know what Rudd is thinking at the moment...

 

[Marc]

Latest Nielsen poll :

2PP : Coal 51- ALP 49

Assuming a uniform swing, this washes out as a Coalition victory by 11 seats.

So, this is where we are at : The ALP's only chance in this election is if the man they knifed for not being able to win the election can convince people to vote for his assassin.

I'd love to know what Rudd is thinking at the moment...

That the ALP could of been in exactly the same position under him if he's realistic

 

[Marc]

^ I was actually listening to Triple J when he said that. It was probably the fact Hockey was on Triple J and that the audience would be quite receptive to this news.

Just reading some of the comments in the Australian's IT section. I think this is nothing more than political expediency and wouldn't put it past Abbott and Co to try something down the track.

They could of announce this long before now and given the domination of the coalition by the religious conservatives starting with Abbott I think something else will be waiting in the wings.

 

[Botany Bay]

Latest Nielsen poll :

2PP : Coal 51- ALP 49

Assuming a uniform swing, this washes out as a Coalition victory by 11 seats.

So, this is where we are at : The ALP's only chance in this election is if the man they knifed for not being able to win the election can convince people to vote for his assassin.

I'd love to know what Rudd is thinking at the moment...

That the ALP could of been in exactly the same position under him if he's realistic

Yep, the polls say they'd be no worse off than they are now - arguably they could be better off, campaigning on the strength of their incumbency, and running a "better the devil you know" line against Abbott, instead of the strange campaign where we have two opposition leaders going at it. Whatever happens, the switch to Gillard has been the wrong call for them. This Neilsen poll confirms that.

My reading of Rudd is that he smells instability ahead (the last two weeks polling says a hung parliament is not out of the question, the best case scenario for the ALP is a tiny majority), and he's setting himself up for a comeback.

Delusional, but it fits his character.

 

[Marc]

Latest Nielsen poll :

2PP : Coal 51- ALP 49

Assuming a uniform swing, this washes out as a Coalition victory by 11 seats.

So, this is where we are at : The ALP's only chance in this election is if the man they knifed for not being able to win the election can convince people to vote for his assassin.

I'd love to know what Rudd is thinking at the moment...

That the ALP could of been in exactly the same position under him if he's realistic

Yep, the polls say they'd be no worse off than they are now - arguably they could be better off, campaigning on the strength of their incumbency, and running a "better the devil you know" line against Abbott, instead of the strange campaign where we have two opposition leaders going at it. Whatever happens, the switch to Gillard has been the wrong call for them. This Neilsen poll confirms that.

My reading of Rudd is that he smells instability ahead (the last two weeks polling says a hung parliament is not out of the question, the best case scenario for the ALP is a tiny majority), and he's setting himself up for a comeback.

Delusional, but it fits his character.

Except The Australian has an article by Dennis Shanahan that the Labor was actually making ground back without Rudd in the picture.

 

[Botany Bay]

If Shanahan was praising Gillard, she must have been doing something right!

Honestly, I don't see it though. Their unchanged 36% primary vote translates to a thumping loss, and asking Rudd to campaign for them reeks of desperation.

So, I take it Gillard had to deal with not only a stage managed appearance with Rudd today, but later an appearance from Mark Latham, who is apparently working as a journo for Ch.9.

Talk about a shitty day at the office!

 

[Jono]

^ I was actually listening to Triple J when he said that. It was probably the fact Hockey was on Triple J and that the audience would be quite receptive to this news.

Just reading some of the comments in the Australian's IT section. I think this is nothing more than political expediency and wouldn't put it past Abbott and Co to try something down the track.

They could of announce this long before now and given the domination of the coalition by the religious conservatives starting with Abbott I think something else will be waiting in the wings.

Listening to Hockey he was on about how the "technology" didn't work, rather than the idea itself being a bad one. It does lead to the question in the future if the technology is seen as workable would the coalition return to it and then claim that they aren't going back on their promise as they were against an unworkable technology against of the idea itself.

Seriously Latham is a joke. He goes on about Rudd being a problem but all he is doing is making Labor look more like a bunch of nutcases.

 

[Australis]

Yeah, Latham is a classic case of the kid who says "If I can't play, no one can!"

 

[Marc]

Yeah, Latham is a classic case of the kid who says "If I can't play, no one can!"

Latham need to to join the business profits of the 1980s - at the bottom of the habour.

 

[Botany Bay]

Seriously Latham is a joke. He goes on about Rudd being a problem but all he is doing is making Labor look more like a bunch of nutcases.

Yep, it is oh so tempting to make a call that this was the "Howard handshake" moment of this campaign, and that the Libs have it in the bag now, but there has to be another twist in this surreal election.

But, the growing consensus now is that all Abbott has to do is get through his campaign launch and avoid any monumental blunders for the next fortnight, and the keys to the lodge are his.

 

[Marc]

Seriously Latham is a joke. He goes on about Rudd being a problem but all he is doing is making Labor look more like a bunch of nutcases.

Yep, it is oh so tempting to make a call that this was the "Howard handshake" moment of this campaign, and that the Libs have it in the bag now, but there has to be another twist in this surreal election.

But, the growing consensus now is that all Abbott has to do is get through his campaign launch and avoid any monumental blunders for the next fortnight, and the keys to the lodge are his.

and I see the sorry sack of shit is taking a leaf out of Howard's book and is going to use fear, racism and xenophobia to scare the people into voting for him.

If as much was spend on the combating the 1000s who are in Australia illegal after arriving through Sydney Airport instead of the hundreds that come boat it's would be money well spent.

I'd also like know the fuck the opposition is doing negotiating with Naru to take assylum seekers? They can do that when/if they win government not before - it's not the opposition's role (people might remember the screeching from the Coalition when they thought Rudd was doing things that weren't the pervue of the oppoisition leader).

If the Coalition wins the election I think that Australia is going to regret putting the mad monk in the lodge very quickly.

 

[Jono]

Really my main issue with the Nauru solution is that it just makes their basket case economy even more so. I'm all for Australia helping out it poorer Pacific neighbours but it should do so in an effort to fix their problems not rent out our problems to them.

Any claims that this is "helping" the people of Nauru is bullshit. It offers them some short term gains but in the long run once Australia changes its mind or believes the issue has gone away we'll piss off and Nauru will be screwed. This is all about abusing our power and wealth to fuck over the smaller guy.

 

[Botany Bay]

Shiny, brand new Newspoll :

ALP 38 (+1), Coal 42 (-2), Grn 13 (+1), Others 7;

2PP: ALP 52 (+2), Coal 48 (-2)

A timely reminder that for Abbott that he's not PM just yet. Australians hate hubris.

Where will those Green preferences end up? That's the $1.1 trillion question.

The Latham circus may stop this ALP momentum stone dead, but it's safe to say we've got a thriller here, folks...

 

[Australis]

Australians hate hubris.

Damn straight.

 

[Marc]

Shiny, brand new Newspoll :

ALP 38 (+1), Coal 42 (-2), Grn 13 (+1), Others 7;

2PP: ALP 52 (+2), Coal 48 (-2)

A timely reminder that for Abbott that he's not PM just yet. Australians hate hubris.

Where will those Green preferences end up? That's the $1.1 trillion question.

The Latham circus may stop this ALP momentum stone dead, but it's safe to say we've got a thriller here, folks...

All Labor need to is point out that Latham is nothing more than a bitter failure and move on.

 

[Jono]

A Family First classic: http://au.news.yahoo.com/election/a/-/article/7732210/im-not-homophobic-senate-candidate/

My favourite tweet is the one where she defends her view because "many" other people feel the same way. That argument always makes me think of a poster that appeared on the wall of the Springfield hospital in one "The Simpsons" episode that had on it something along the lines of:

Smoking
20 million people can't be wrong!

It saddens me that there are enough people out there to put people like this into public office.

 

[stj]

If Rudd could be thrown out so unceremoniously by the people calling the shots, doesn't it rather suggest what Gillard and the ALP campaign say they stand for, doesn't mean anything? (As in, they'll do what the people who told them to fire Rudd tell them to.)

Do people in Australia know why and how Rudd got axed, and who did it?

Shouldn't the National Party be making points about what kind of outfit gets run like that? And doesn't their silence suggest the National Party also respects the same people who dumped Rudd?

Or are these more subtle political points that aren't making it into the US press?

 

[Australis]

Well. Uhhhhh... Not surwe where to start, but I'll give it a shot.

The public was growing more dissatisfied with Rudd over a significant period of time. The big change occurred when he said the Government would drop its pursuit of putting a Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in place. While there's all this talk about whether climate control is real or not, the public felt that its dropping was wrong, you could see it in the polls, and in just talking to anyone you knew, even Labor Party supporters. From there it was a downward slide. As to who axed him, I feel it was basically panic merchants and career politicians on the Labor backbenches - it is conceivable he would have been doing as well as Gillard is now, he's good on the hustings.

Not quite sure what you mean about the National Party, they are, for all intents and purposes, rusted onto the Liberal Party. The third force in Aust politics, at this time, is the Greens.

 

[Australis]

And now for a new feature. I can't think why it hasn't been thought of before.
When I saw this picture of Julie Bishop, I thought it needed a caption, and made me laugh out loud. So... introducing... the lolpol:

Damn, I wish I could copyright 'lolpol'! I'd make a fortune!

Add more as you think of them!

 

[Botany Bay]

A Family First classic: http://au.news.yahoo.com/election/a/-/article/7732210/im-not-homophobic-senate-candidate/

My favourite tweet is the one where she defends her view because "many" other people feel the same way. That argument always makes me think of a poster that appeared on the wall of the Springfield hospital in one "The Simpsons" episode that had on it something along the lines of:

Smoking
20 million people can't be wrong!

It saddens me that there are enough people out there to put people like this into public office.

Compulsory voting, and above the line Senate voting make me sadder.

The Victorian ALP gave us the wonderful Steve Fielding, and hence a national voice to this party of bigots thanks to an ill-conceived preference deal in 2004. They've only got themselves to blame for this idiot making them do backflips in the most recent parliament.

Thankfully there is no chance of Fielding being re-elected this year, but take control of your vote, people, and take the time to vote below the line.

Back to the main game, and it's just fascinating stuff, with the commentariat leaning towards the ALP by a nose, but Oakes (the journo of the campaign) says the ALP will be wiped out in QLD.

Just saw a devastating anti-Abbott ad, using clips of Costello mocking Abbott's economic credentials (for the record Abbott is a Rhodes Scholar, with a degree in Economics). Absolute killer ad, playing to the reservations people are having about putting him in the lodge.

Poll after poll confirms that people are happy to toss this government out, but their doubts about Abbott are holding them back.