Meteorologists should get paid on commission

[RoJoHen]

They should only get paid when their weather forecast is accurate! All I've wanted for the last 2 weeks is an awesome thunderstorm to help cool the place down. According to the forecast, we should have had at least 3 storms by now, but we have had none. I realize that weather can be unpredictable at times, but don't you think that by now we would have learned enough to make more accurate forecasts?

 

[JonathonWally]

I love this idea

 

[sidious618]

We're supposed to get some thunderstorms tomorrow. Can't wait.

 

[RoJoHen]

It was supposed to storm last night and all day today, but it was sunny the whole time.

 

[JonathonWally]

We're supposed to get some thunderstorms tomorrow. Can't wait.

Don't say that, I have to help friends move furniture before class.

 

[Canadave]

Weather is unimaginably complex. We actually don't have computers powerful enough to properly model the Earth's atmosphere yet. So unfortunately, we'll have to live with the best guess for a while, yet.

 

[RoJoHen]

Weather is unimaginably complex. We actually don't have computers powerful enough to properly model the Earth's atmosphere yet. So unfortunately, we'll have to live with the best guess for a while, yet.

Yeah, I understand, but I almost feel like weather predictions have been getting worse over the last couple years.

 

[greenguy]

"Scattered" and "isolated" thunderstorms are the cockteases of weather reports. We just had a weekend of isolated t-storms. I wanted a full front. Not happy.

 

[pookha]

i think the original forcast for nashville the first week of may was about four inches.

oh they missed it by 8 to 12 inches..

 

[Lindley]

"Scattered" and "isolated" thunderstorms are the cockteases of weather reports. We just had a weekend of isolated t-storms. I wanted a full front. Not happy.

I agree. A single front would have gotten the weather over with and pushed it aside. Instead, we've got this annoying stationary system hanging out and occasionally spinning off storms.

I was planning a flight for Saturday, but given the uncertainty of the forecast, I couldn't guarantee VFR would be possible so I may need to cancel. That's seriously annoying.

 

[JohnChod]

Now I don't want to make this political, so don't misinterpret where this is coming from. But....

How can these climatologists and meterologists claim to be able to predict global warming when they can't get tomorrow's forecast right? We have verifiable data from only a tiny fraction of the world's lifetime, yet they feel justified in interpolating and extrapolating every which way.

Not that we can't be environmentally conscious - we certainly can and should.

 

[Jadzia]

They should only get paid when their weather forecast is accurate!

Commission is a device used to motivate employees in jobs without achievement obligations. For example, an employed salesperson could be lazy and put only a small effort into acquiring sales of your products.

By offering them commission, you encourage them to promote your products and try harder to sell them.

But are weather predictions unreliable because weathermen are not investing enough time and energy? Or are they unreliable because the weather is not able to be predicted any clearer with the resources they have?

 

[RoJoHen]

I was kidding.

 

[Lindley]

How can these climatologists and meterologists claim to be able to predict global warming when they can't get tomorrow's forecast right?

Weather is short-term. Climate is long-term. The two are very different things, but laymen tend to get them confused.

We have verifiable data from only a tiny fraction of the world's lifetime, yet they feel justified in interpolating and extrapolating every which way.

The essence of statistics is that predictions are meaningless until additional data begins to back them up. Correlation != Causation. However, once the data do start to support previous predictions, the statistical significance of that support can be evaluated. Rest assured the mathematics have been worked out by some very smart people.

 

[Jadzia]

I was kidding.

Well it's not necessary a bad idea.

Most people desire job security, and some jobs are oversubscribed. People in that situation would have to take steps to secure their own jobs by making their presence appear necessary.

Employees often make tasks take longer than they really do, or may keep the systems they're in charge of complex enough to justify their presence to manage it.

If weather forecasting computers could run themselves and produce good results, then there would be less need for weather specialists. Weather specialists wouldn't want that outcome.

So I think it would be interesting to see if putting weather people on commission increased the accuracy of their forecasts, or not.

 

[Mr. Laser Beam]

IMHO, the only useful weather forecast is looking out the window.

It is irrelevant what the weather is *supposed* to be (forecasts are often wrong). All that matters is what it IS.

 

[Lindley]

IMHO, the only useful weather forecast is looking out the window.

It is irrelevant what the weather is *supposed* to be (forecasts are often wrong). All that matters is what it IS.

The forecast up to 1 day in advance is typically fairly accurate. The accuracy degrades after that.

Aviation forecasts (TAFs, FAs, prog charts, etc) rarely bother trying to predict what's going to happen more than 48 hours out.

 

[RoJoHen]

IMHO, the only useful weather forecast is looking out the window.

It is irrelevant what the weather is *supposed* to be (forecasts are often wrong). All that matters is what it IS.

Well, yeah, but it's nice to have some kind of expectation so you can attempt to plan outdoor activities.

 

[Canadave]

How can these climatologists and meterologists claim to be able to predict global warming when they can't get tomorrow's forecast right?

Climatologists work on predicting and determining long-term trends. Meteorologies work on predicting short-term, day-to-day weather, and have very little to do with the science of climate change.

One of the big reasons that climate change science can work, as well, is the fact that climatology is typically done on a very large scale. They don't predict that New York City will get 21.8% more rain by 2025, they predict that Eastern North America may recieve 15-25% more rain by 2025 (numbers off the top of my head, btw). So the two sciences, while obviously related, are working on two very different ends of the same system.

 

[Kestra]

IMHO, the only useful weather forecast is looking out the window.

It is irrelevant what the weather is *supposed* to be (forecasts are often wrong). All that matters is what it IS.

Well, yeah, but it's nice to have some kind of expectation so you can attempt to plan outdoor activities.

I find weather.com to be fairly accurate, especially the hour by hour.