Kitco analyst Jon Nadler says gold is setting record prices amid "some of the poorest fundamentals I've seen in the market for a long time." He suspects the recent rise has been driven by large hedge funds and institutional investors making momentum-driven trades. As for fears of financial collapse, "The sky did actually fall last year -- and it was good for $1,035 gold," says Nadler. "But that's about where the worst ends."
So the short-term outlook is not promising. But what about long-term protection against inflation?
Money manager Rob Arnott, chairman of Research Affiliates, whose strategies are used to manage $43 billion in assets, believes the inflation rate could climb above 5% in two to three years and that investors should dedicate a quarter to a third of a portfolio to inflation protection.
But he's not a fan of gold, which, he says, basically tracks inflation over the long term, leaving you a loser after taxes. "Gold is not a sensible core holding," he says.
Like Rogers, Arnott thinks common commodities are a smarter choice. He suggests iShares GSCI, an ETF that tracks the broad S&P commodities index. Arnott also likes using Treasury Inflation- Protected Securities, real estate investment trusts (REITs), and emerging-market bonds, which you can buy through the PowerShares Emerging Market Sovereign Debt ETF. Many developing countries are commodities producers, so if U.S. inflation kicks in, their currencies will gain strength and their debt will rise in value