BoxOffice Prediction from Deadline Hollywood Daily
- Thread starter Michael Chris
- Start date
Brandon Gray from Boxofficemojo Predicted a 230m total for ST
What? 230M domestic is disappointing? What are you talking about?
No those numbers would be phenomenal.
For a Star Trek movie in years past. Yes.
Not for a 150 million dollar movie that has been very highly rated and enjoyed great prerelease buzz.
Most Industry analysts predicted this would make between 165-190 domestic. 230 is great considering what everyone originally thought it would be at.
You just want to have reason to call this movie a failure. 'What??? only 230 million! That is horrible!'.
Is that prediction for the domestic total or worldwide total?
TVH made $109 million domestically. That's $217 million, today. TMP's $82 million in the U.S. would be $246 million, today. TMP's budget would equal $105 million, today. Isn't ST09 at $150 million?
ST09 has been hyped like no other Trek movie. It's received very good reviews. To the extent it helps, J.J. Abrams name behind it means something to popular culture audiences. If with all that it can't out-take TMP in the U.S. and barely clears TVH after controlling for inflation, I'd call that a big disappointment.
The movie business now is not like it was back in those times. You have more entertainment options/More summer releases opening now then you did back then. You can't compare the two.
TMP, TVH...different times. And times when the Trek formula hadn't been done to death or gone through the failures of the TNG movies, Enterprise etc etc etc
It's not the past Trek movies this one has to beat. It just has to make some kind of profit (only Paramount knows how much, not anyone here) and show promise for the future.
Show that there is a new audience there to be milked again in the years to come.
And you can bet that all the critical acclaim (especially if it continues as it is so far) will also play a big part for it to be declared a success and sequels to be made.
And the current movie is a summer release.
Which means it should perform that much better due to the larger possible audience compared to the Christmas releases.
True. And, what superdeluxe says is true, too. Also, the international take will probably be comparable to the domestic take. If it's also $230 million, then that's half a billion total gross. Not bad.
Still, those other movies were X-Mas releases and not tentpole movies marketed as summer blockbusters. I guess we should be making comparisons to the major May releases from the last few summers.
And, would Paramount really be happy if the profit margin isn't much different than what the lower-budgeted-but-good Trek movies did?
I could see this movie scratch $300 million, domestically. The buzz is good. But I'm probably leading with my heart.
If it makes more than double what Nemesis did I'll personally be thrilled!
He's talking through his hat. Paramount would be thrilled with 230 million dollars domestic, and they won't be consulting Dayton3 on whether it's "disappointing" or not.
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