Your Box office Predictions for Star Trek? (and box office tracking)

[darkwing_duck1]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Domestic $55-75 Million Opening Weekend
Domestic $160-190 Million Total

^^
This.

And I think that would actually be a pretty strong showing, considering that Nemesis only made $43 million total. Honestly, I think those of you making $300 million+ predictions are setting yourselves up for disappointment. When has any franchise ever had *that* big a turnaround in just one movie?

If it doesn't, don't expect any MORE Treks. $300 million (2x budget, as is the standard) is the minimum Paramount will want to back full production of a sequel.

 

[MrPointy]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

I'll say $250 million US and at least $200 million foreign.

 

[chrisspringob]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Domestic $55-75 Million Opening Weekend
Domestic $160-190 Million Total

^^
This.

And I think that would actually be a pretty strong showing, considering that Nemesis only made $43 million total. Honestly, I think those of you making $300 million+ predictions are setting yourselves up for disappointment. When has any franchise ever had *that* big a turnaround in just one movie?

If it doesn't, don't expect any MORE Treks. $300 million (2x budget, as is the standard) is the minimum Paramount will want to back full production of a sequel.

I don't actually believe that. And it's not really true that a movie has to make 2x its budget in its domestic box office run to be profitable. Domestic box office doesn't even really make the studios that much $ these days. Between marketing and distribution costs, it's not that profitable. A lot of the big $ is made on DVD sales and TV broadcast rights and the like.

(Of course, how well the movie does in its theatrical run is heavily correlated with how well it does in other media.)

 

[RAMA]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

I'm still sticking with my prediction, mainly because it will be hard for Trek to get past a very set pattern of box office grosses. It will overcome this to some extent. I think $260 million would be a very respectable tally. Lets' not forget merchandising and DVDs/Bluray sales will increase the gross much further....even Nemesis sold 2 MILLION DVDs.

RAMA

 

[Ptrope]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

^^

Yes, but how many of those Nemesis DVDs were in the bargain bin for $4.99? That's the only way I could be enticed to waste money on the movie after being robbed in the theater.

I figure AbramsTrek will have a strong-ish opening weekend, approx. $65M, drop about 60% for the second weekend, and finish up its US run at about $150M, then add about $90M in foreign BO. I just think that, no matter how well it's promoted or how good a film it is, Trek carries too much baggage at this point - even TPTB/TIIC know this, from the schizophrenic way they've approached it, trying for a mainstream audience on paper but making so many 'concessions' to the existing material that much of the film sounds like only fans will 'get' a lot of them, but those who do are largely the group that likely won't care for being given only 'concessions' and not an 'accurate' Star Trek movie, and the mainstream audience will find it mostly forgettable popcorn fare; I don't see this movie having widespread appeal after the primary impact, although it will probably do well on DVD/Blu-Ray.

Up!, on the other hand ...

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

^^

Yes, but how many of those Nemesis DVDs were in the bargain bin for $4.99?

That's a rhetorical question with an understood answer, but that assumed answer is probably wrong.

The sales of Trek DVDs are pretty reliable. That movie was seen almost entirely by hard core Trek fans, and those who own Trek DVDs are rabid completists. It's unlikely that many of them waited for a sale, and doubly unlikely that many non-fanatics would have picked up the bargain-bin version at any price.

Personally, I own three Trek movie DVDs ("Nemesis" is not among them) - and only own ST 6 because I needed it for reference. I've still got the entire set of TOS-based movies on Laserdisc, but haven't looked at them in ages.

I'm still sticking with my prediction, mainly because it will be hard for Trek to get past a very set pattern of box office grosses.

The "set pattern" really has no commercial relevance to this movie. That dead oldTrek movie franchise ended - what, six years ago? It's got as much to do with reasonable box office expectations for this movie as "Batman And Robin" had to do with "Batman Begins."

 

[RAMA]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

The number of discs sold for Nemesis was into the millions after a few weeks, so I would dare say the majority were NOT at the bargain price. Even so, it demonstrates a lot of people didn't see it in the theater but bought it on DVD. I bet most of those people enjoyed it in that format as I did.

I'm willing to bet that the Foster novelization of the movie will be a bestseller...more money in the coffers.

RAMA

 

[RAMA]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

^^

Yes, but how many of those Nemesis DVDs were in the bargain bin for $4.99?

That's a rhetorical question with an understood answer, but that assumed answer is probably wrong.

The sales of Trek DVDs are pretty reliable. That movie was seen almost entirely by hard core Trek fans, and those who own Trek DVDs are rabid completists. It's unlikely that many of them waited for a sale, and doubly unlikely that many non-fanatics would have picked up the bargain-bin version at any price.

Personally, I own three Trek movie DVDs ("Nemesis" is not among them) - and only own ST 6 because I needed it for reference. I've still got the entire set of TOS-based movies on Laserdisc, but haven't looked at them in ages.

I'm still sticking with my prediction, mainly because it will be hard for Trek to get past a very set pattern of box office grosses.

The "set pattern" really has no commercial relevance to this movie. That dead oldTrek movie franchise ended - what, six years ago? It's got as much to do with reasonable box office expectations for this movie as "Batman And Robin" had to do with "Batman Begins."

I own 5 of the 10 movies on DVD. Two are STNG DVDs.

This pattern is so ingrained it really has barely moved for over two decades. Its going to take a lot of word of mouth to get it up to the figure I mentioned, which in itself is $85 million more than any other ST movie has grossed in first run.

 

[Borgminister]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

^^

...the mainstream audience will find it mostly forgettable popcorn fare;

Fast and Furious!

 

[Ptrope]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

That movie was seen almost entirely by hard core Trek fans, and those who own Trek DVDs are rabid completists. It's unlikely that many of them waited for a sale, and doubly unlikely that many non-fanatics would have picked up the bargain-bin version at any price.

I've always wondered how Trek fans could be 'rabid completists' at the gouging prices that Paramount charges - or I suppose one would have to be a rabid completist to shell out those prices. As one of the aforementioned "hardcore" fans, I still have only the first season of DS9, bought used for half-price, the animated series, TMP-R, TWoK, TSfS, GEN, INS and NEM. Given the fan response to NEM, I figure there are more like me who waited and only got it because it was cheap, than had to have it to complete their collections, regardless of price. So, in effect, it really wasn't a rhetorical question - but this one is: if one believes a question is rhetorical, why does one address it at length?

Despite my personal attitudes toward AbramsTrek, however, I figure it will sell big at full price. At least, I believe that until I actually see it.

 

[Electric Coleslaw]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Nemesis was on one of the movie channels last night and after watching the desert scene I was reminded of what a pile of crap that movie was. I will never buy that on DVD, Blu-Ray, download it directly to my brain in 2025 or whatever format they invent.

But as for the new movie, I've had several non-Trekkie people come up to me and ask about it. A lot of them say that they like the previews and that they will probably go see it. The non-Trekkie base has always been elusive to the ST movies except for maybe ST2 and ST4 to some degree. This movie may change that. I hope so.

 

[Admiral Bear]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

$100 million at US box office.

$40m-$50m in all other territories combined.

If the film breaks even after marketing and all other costs, I'll eat my shorts.

 

[Borgminister]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

If the film breaks even after marketing and all other costs, I'll eat my shorts.

Launder them first...

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

If the film breaks even after marketing and all other costs, I'll eat my shorts.

That's a weasel phrase, since we can argue about what the real marketing and "all other costs" are until the cows come home - Paramount will not be sharing that information, and all of the popular "rules of thumb" are outdated nonsense that folks repeat back and forth in an attempt to sound knowledgable.

Your estimates will turn out to be extraordinarily low, in any event. Another keeper.

 

[SalvorHardin]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Man...this movie could make 2 billion dollars and I bet there would still be someone to come here and post that it failed and still didn't make money for Paramount after "marketing and all other costs"

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Man...this movie could make 2 billion dollars and I bet there would still be someone to come here and post that it failed and still didn't make money for Paramount after "marketing and all other costs"

Exactly. Doom and gloom over the projected profitability of the movie is the last refuge of the folks who disapprove of it - and that solace is likely to be snatched away in a few weeks.

 

[Augustus]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Opening day/night will be the ONLY time this film makes any money of any respect. Otherwise, it'll make Paul Blart look like Dark Knight.

Nobody of any number is gonna go see this thing. Opening day/night, all the Trek fans will be lined up, clinging to the hope that somehow they'll be able to save this thing, but otherwise, it'll be a royal floppa-roppa.

Every time I've been in a theater where the trailers for Trek have been shown, the audience reactions range from light chuckles, to laughter, to outright groans. People who like Trek will see this thing. Other people will not.

Think about it... if someone has already had 40+ years to get into Trek, and never did, what could possibly make them want to see this? They're just not into Trek. Nothing will change their mind... for them, they like movies with raw, mindless, action, where lots of things go KA-BOOM, with hot cars, and hot women... in other words, movies like Transformers. For this audience, Trek is a series loved by chess-club geeks, who give strange hand signals... and they won't change their mind about it... if they could, they would have done so with ENT or one of the more recent films.

But, if they (Paramount) need to see the dismal box office returns to show them the grim reality, then so be it. Trek better hope to god no other movie opens the same day, otherwise the OTHER film will be the one that rakes in money.

Wow, that has to be one of the most pessimistic posts I have ever read on this board....

And the most unrealistic. Another keeper, to quote liberally from in the second week in May...

I agree, this will look pretty foolish..

 

[SalvorHardin]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Man...this movie could make 2 billion dollars and I bet there would still be someone to come here and post that it failed and still didn't make money for Paramount after "marketing and all other costs"

Exactly. Doom and gloom over the projected profitability of the movie is the last refuge of the folks who disapprove of it - and that solace is likely to be snatched away in a few weeks.

And in any case, I would think that if people should have learned anything from what Paramount did with Star Trek after the past failures, is to be less absolute and certain about the level of money this movie has to make to guarantee a sequel.

I am by no means an expert on the subject but I believe that the fate of possible sequels will be decided by more than just huge financial profits.

Critical acclaim, media interest, renewed interest by people outside fandom etc etc , in other words if it shows promise for future earnings, that will play a big part even if the movie somehow doesn't make double or triple it's budget money in the US

 

[I Grok Spock]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Opening day/night will be the ONLY time this film makes any money of any respect. Otherwise, it'll make Paul Blart look like Dark Knight.

Good point. Paul Blart has made $157M worldwide to date on a $26M budget, for a profitability ratio of 6.0. The Dark Knight made $1B on a $185M budget for a profitability ratio of 5.4

So yeah, Paul Blart does look alot like The Dark Knight.

 

[Warp Coil]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Because the reviews trickling in have been so overwhelmingly positive, I think the film has the opportunity to make $300 million world-wide. That would mean the film breaks even and Trek XI would become profitable from all of the tie-ins, merchandising and eventual DVD sales. Paramount should be pleased, and won't pull the plug on Trek XII, which they've already announced.