How Much Does The Movie Have To Make To Be A Success?

[Dayton3]

We all know the eleventh movie will make a profit.

Most all movies eventually do one way or another thanks to foreign ticket sales and especially DVDs.

But studios still put alot of pressure on the opening week for a movie. Especially the opening weekend.

Given ST: XIs summer blockbuster status, the hype, and most especially its budget, how much does it need to pull in the first week to be a success?

Forgive me if this topic has already been addressed.

 

[Squiggy]

Profit...that's it. It doesn't need to make anything the first week as a lot of money will be made off of merchandising and DVD sales.

But if it's not in the top 3 in it's opening weekend, it won't be a success.

 

[Flake]

Assuming $150 Million dollar budget and a further $50 million for advertising, the movie needs to make $400 Million worldwide to break even. Batman Begins had a similar budget and make that amount worldwide, this was enough to get a sequel.

I think

Even if the movie makes a billion I am sure Hollywood accounting would say it made a loss anyway

 

[Dayton3]

I think if it makes in the 35 million dollar range the first week and then suffers no more than about 10% declines in box office each week for the next nine weeks then it would be considered a pretty good success.

That would put it on the way to recouping its budget with domestic box office alone. The rest would probably end up pulling a profit.

I used to be pretty good at figuring box officer performance versus budget but that was a long time ago.

Still, a thirty five million or even a thirty million dollar opening week sounds like a tall order for a Star Trek movie.

 

[Therin of Andor]

Batman Begins had a similar budget and make that amount worldwide, this was enough to get a sequel.

IIRC, the 1989 "Batman" had made a profit before it opened, based on projected income figures from licensing companies all over the world buying the rights to sell the rights to let other companies make and sell tie-in merchandise.

 

[mswood]

Dayton 3 , there are practically no films in the last decade that only decline 10% week after week (and those that are are usually small films that are considered surprise sleeper hits).

For most films a 35% drop week to week is exceptionally strong. For a summer tent pole film a drop weekly of 40% is very, very good. Most do 50% drops or worse.

If the film opened to 35 million we most likely would not have a sequel.

For the film to get an green lit for a sequel assume just off of the theatrical WW run a gross off 400 million.

That would cover the estimate cost and a moderate sized ad budget for a tent pole film (that could easily be a low number for what Viacom will spend though).

THere are many other factors, back end deals, leading rates for the costs, ect that we never hear much in the way of details about.

We have to remember that its not just breaking even) studios don't risk over 200 million without wanting a large chuck of profit.

At 400 million WW that leaves the home market and merchandise to deliver a profit that would be acceptable for a sequel

 

[Vance]

Even if the movie makes a billion I am sure Hollywood accounting would say it made a loss anyway

Its budget (which is actually still climbing), is already over $300,000,000US. In all honesty, and I'm not saying this to be mean or hurt internet feelings or anything, I really don't see how this movie can be a financial success. It really has to be looking at nearly a billion-dollar seller.

 

[Obi Wana Jones]

Unfortunately, because of the failures of Enterprise and Nemesis, STXI will have to make enough to bail out AIG and the Big 3 together. For it to be a success, it almost has to be the Dark Knight of 2009.

I watched Nemesis a couple of times recently on AMC. You know what? I really enjoyed it. Its "failure" came from marketing, and a bad taste left in fan's mouth from Insurrection. The only part I hated was ENT-E ramming Shinzons ship. Data's sacrifice wasn't as good as Spock's in WOK, but far better than Kirk's kick off (which was borderline cheesy).

Insurrection truly SUCKED a big disruptor. It destroyed the franchise. Anyone remember Data's emerging from underwater by android farts? What about Worf's zit? What a crappy piece of film making. It did to the TNG films what ST5 did for the TOS films.

 

[Squiggy]

I think if it makes in the 35 million dollar range the first week and then suffers no more than about 10% declines in box office each week for the next nine weeks then it would be considered a pretty good success.

35 million for a summer blockbuster would NOT be good.

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

Unfortunately, because of the failures of Enterprise and Nemesis, STXI will have to make enough to bail out AIG and the Big 3 together.

No.

The studio is run by new people - movie people who judge the success of their movies by the same financial standards as others in the business, not by expectations based on product that was released before they were in charge.

If it makes in the area of 200 million dollars in domestic first-run and is strong internationally, there will probably be a sequel. It probably has to do at least 300 million altogether in first-run, and the closer to 400 million the better.

 

[darkwing_duck1]

Even if the movie makes a billion I am sure Hollywood accounting would say it made a loss anyway

Its budget (which is actually still climbing), is already over $300,000,000US. In all honesty, and I'm not saying this to be mean or hurt internet feelings or anything, I really don't see how this movie can be a financial success. It really has to be looking at nearly a billion-dollar seller.

Where are you getting this information?

 

[Therin of Andor]

Its budget (which is actually still climbing), is already over $300,000,000US.

Storage fees till May?

 

[SalvorHardin]

So to sum up what I've learned from this thread so far, Trek XI has a 300 million budget (and climbing as we speak), plus a burden of a few hundred more millions from a failed tv show and 2 or 3 failed movies.

Thus, it has to make at least 1,5 billion (2 billion to be safe) to be considered a success and get a sequel.

Did I get it right or is there more money missing ?

 

[datas_cat_spot]

Hahahaha 300 million... Even Transformers 2 won't come close to that hahahah!

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

Its budget (which is actually still climbing), is already over $300,000,000US.

Post source or retract.

Where are you getting this information?

A...very dark place.

 

[Vance]

Where are you getting this information?

The links on the budget actually came from this forum (trekmovie.com). The VFX is actually the part still being worked on, and the expenses are ginormous on them. I can't believe they're pumping that much into the film, but they're not the only movie getting such an exhorbatant budget... TF2 is pretty close.

I imagine that some of the cost on Trek is being considered 'spent' for the two contractually-planned sequels as well, so sets, props, etc, are going to be reused heavily (which makes sense)... but it's a deal that pretty much requires the whole contract to finish and do well.

 

[Squiggy]

Nope. The movie is finished.

Hahahaha 300 million... Even Transformers 2 won't come close to that hahahah!

Since the first Transformers made 708 million, I don't know why you're making this assumption.

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

Where are you getting this information?

The links on the budget actually came from this forum (trekmovie.com). The VFX is actually the part still being worked on, and the expenses are ginormous on them.

You better go back and re-read then, because you've got it wrong.

And the VFX are finished; the film was completely done Christmas week. Keep up.

 

[Squiggy]

Visuals were done months ago. Dubbing is usually the last process.

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

Visuals were done months ago. Dubbing is usually the last process.

Yeah, they finished the sound mix on Christmas week. All of that has been reported at Trekmovie.com .