Great post, obviously you thought this out well. But I have four quibbles with it, which are major differences:
1. You set this up as an either/or situation, and it is not. Hernandez won the day on a argument that was based on: A. The sympathy for the Borg, more importantly, B. the need for Caeliar culture to turn from its path to destruction, and C. The warning that if the Borg win today, they will come for you in time. So I submit to you that Picard has to think "both' not "either/or". The decisions made by the winners here were irrespective of Picard's decision/no-decision.
2. While there is a chance the Weapon might fail, I would argue that Picard had consider that using the weapon might fail, as opposed to not using it, the Caeliar failing, and the Federation will fail. Picard does not know what will happen, and if you have both faith and tools, you have a better chance to win, than just faith alone. We are talking about the total destruction of the populations of a major part of the galaxy here, in numbers so big it is hard to deal with. Your solution here is take the road that guarantees failure if the Caeliar fail, as opposed to the 2% chance of success if the Caeliar fail. If you really believe that this is how humans should act, then our world is in trouble.
3. This idea ignores the fact that others would be getting ready to use the weapon now no matter what Picard does. The Romulans would have used it, since they were the guys who first had a working model, at least. To believe that other, less moral cultures than the Federation would not hesitate to use the weapon is exactly how the US has gotten into wars all through this century, and the last one as well.
4. Sorry, there is no sale for Picard selling his soul in making the weapon. The author may try to sell that line, but all Picard has to do is think about trillions of innocents dying, and the ramifications of failure to the galaxy if the Federation falls. The "Butterfly analogy" works here too. His decision to hold to certain principles may keep his conscience clear, but if the result is 1/4 of the galaxy is a dead zone, is that morally right?
The author is trying sell a moral position full of holes here IMO.
I agree with you, faith is the most powerful tool a person has. But faith has many ways to be applied, not just putting your faith in one hope, when there are other alternatives out there.
Finally, in relationship to other posters, I need to shout: WHY DO YOU THINK POSTPONNING THE BORG"S VICTORY ONLY MEANS FAILURE LATER? So many of you who are posting here automatically assume the Borg will always win in the end if not for some miracle from some outside, higher power?
You are saying, "Don't use the weapons, because it won't work." Do you know that?
Another says: "if you postpone it, the Borg will come back even stronger, and we will be more behind." Really? How do you know that? The Federation has won every war or battle with the Borg up to this time. Cicumstances always change over time, and you cannot assume the guy with the bigger guns will always win, if that was the case the US would have won in Vietnam, the Soviets win in Afganistan, and the English win the American Revolution.
You can buy into the "Borg will always win senario", but that something you are adding to the setting of the Destiny Series, it is not in the books. That is a hole in the 1st book, I admit, because there is no way that any General Staff would take the view that Starfleet Command takes in this book towards use of the weapon, and the fact that we know nothing about what the thinking of the Romulans is opens the door to saying the Romulans decided to load their ships up with every weapon they had, including the radiation.
Thanks for posting, and thanks for reading my post.