First movie of 2008 to reach $300M or even $400M???

[Out Of My Vulcan Mind]

The weekend estimates from Box Office Mojo:

1. Hellboy II - $35.885 million
2. Hancock - $33 million (- 47.3%; $165.034 million so far)
3. Journey to the Center of the Earth - $20.58 million
4. Wall*E - $18.509 million (- 43.1%; $162.772 million so far)
5. Wanted - $11.586 million (- 42.2%; $112.045 million so far)
6. Get Smart - $7.105 million (- 36%; $111.468 million so far)
7. Meet Dave - $5.3 million
8. Kung Fu Panda - $4.3 million (- 41.2%; $202.043 million so far)

10. Indy IV - $2.25 million (- 40.4%; $310.447 million so far)
11. The Incredible Hulk - $2.234 million (- 54.4%; $129.815 million so far)

14. Iron Man - $931,000 (-36.2%; $313.413 million so far)

Hellboy opened to just over $23 million in 2004 - so nice increase for the sequel there. The summer release date and del Toro's increased stature, along with Universal's strong marketing campaign, did the trick.

Very nice second weekend hold for Hancock. It should end up in the mid-200s, maybe even the high 200s. Journey didn't make a big splash but it'll do okay given that it's only carrying a $60 million production budget. Meet Dave is carrying the same budget and will result in a lot of red ink. Kung Fu Panda joined the $200 million domestic club, and The Incredible Hulk continues to drop off at a sharp rate. It's close to matching the domestic take of Ang Lee's Hulk, but isn't quite there yet.

 

[Aragorn]

Isn't Uwe Boll's "Postal" about $299.5 million away from reaching $300? And it was only released two months ago. That'd be my pick right there.

 

[Dream]

Hope Hellboy II makes 100 million. It'll be disappointing if Iron Man and Hancock are the only superhero movies that become hits this year.

 

[MattJC]

Are you forgetting the Dark Knight?
However, I also hope Hellboy II breaks $100 million or at least enough to warrant a Hellboy III.

 

[Captain Craig]

Hope Hellboy II makes 100 million. It'll be disappointing if Iron Man and Hancock are the only superhero movies that become hits this year.

I hope Hellboy 2 can make it to $100m as well but I fear it may get lost in they mega hype of that other comic film opening this coming Friday.
Now what is that movie called again?

Its a shame that TIH seems to be out of the top 10 now. Its only about $3+m away from '03 Hulk and will surpass it just not by much.

Its a shame too cause critic and movie goers who actually saw it and made note of it online for all to see have voiced its a much better movie. Shame that some just couldn't be bothered to change their minds in lieu of that.

 

[Dream]

Are you forgetting the Dark Knight?
However, I also hope Hellboy II breaks $100 million or at least enough to warrant a Hellboy III.

I know Batman will do well. I just wanted to see how long until someone pointed out TDK was missing from that post. So it's 3 minutes. Is that some kind of record?

 

[Tim]

Nice to see Indy 4 still in the top 10 almost two months after release. That film has had good legs.

 

[Captain Craig]

Nice to see Indy 4 still in the top 10 almost two months after release. That film has had good legs.

Exactly and TDK will have to have better legs to beat it. Indy has had incredible weekday numbers due its family nature. A film all audiences can see without having to hide your 8yr olds eyes. TDK will have a few scenes that make 10 and under squirm, should a parent actually take them. This is part 1 of why it won't be top dog.

Second, Iron Man took 48 days to reach $300m and Indy took 39 days to reach that mark. If TDK isn't sitting within reach of $300m after 30 days, Aug 17(wraps a weekend), then it will be hard pressed to challange Iron Man let alone Indy who will likely surpass IM in about 10-12 days if its pace holds.
This is where my school calendar comes into affect. Many teens start back and so do colleges in the closing weeks of August now. Add on it will start losing theater count and its chances of becoming top summer dog trail off.
No movie on that "fastest to $300m" list has opened past Independence Day in the summer season to go on and be top dog. Odds are against it no matter how great it may be.

TDK could set some new precedants but is it really all that? Will it be so front loaded that it drops hard, will run time prevent possible repeat viewers that IM and Indy had?

I can see TDK now at least approaching or even slightly surpassing $300m, which I didn't think before, but not beating either of the top 2 right now.

 

[Bad Bishop]

If The Dark Knight reaches $250 million domestic by the last day of summer, JacksonArcher wins our bet. Is this likely if the opening gross is less than $100 million?

 

[Captain Craig]

^^^
The last calendar day of summer or the last day of Hollywoods official summer season?
It'll still be summer post Labor Day but that is when the Hollywood summer season ends? Its yet to be pushed back like the start has moved up from Memorial Day to first of May.

If your bet is Labor Day and TDK opens with $100m+ it should easily cross the $250m mark. If your bet is the last calendar day of summer then it doesn't matter most likely. The only way it doesn't have legs to make $250m is if it performs worse than Wall*E which as had sharp 40%+ drops in its 2nd and 3rd weekends after opening well. Many thought Wall*E was a $300m contender, if it had legs, it has proven it doesn't have them like some were thinking. So, will TDK after having a strong opening have legs? That is the question but I think $250m in is a lock even if its 2nd and 3rd weekends are 40%+ drops like Wall*E, its large opening will cover the distance. It'll take 50%+ drops on weekends 2&3 to not reach $250m I think.

 

[Bad Bishop]

^^^
The last calendar day of summer or the last day of Hollywoods official summer season?

Terms of the bet are that The Dark Knight must gross $250,000,000.01 by September 21, 2008 (end of summer on the calendar) for JacksonArcher to win.

Maybe I should start saving money for his prize (a Blu-Ray of TDK).

On the other hand, it'll make Warner Bros. even more committed to DC superhero films. We all win in that case.

 

[Out Of My Vulcan Mind]

You're highly likely to lose that bet, Bad Bishop.

Captain Craig, I wouldn't call Wall*E's second and third weekend drops sharp - not in the context of the type of drops that are now typical of summer blockbusters. In fact Wall*E is running slightly ahead of Cars at this point, and Cars had very good legs, grossing four times its opening. It would've taken spectacular legs to carry Wall*E to $300 million. That hasn't come about, but its legs are good so far nonetheless.

 

[Bad Bishop]

You're highly likely to lose that bet, Bad Bishop.

It's certainly starting to look that way. The early reviews have been tremendous.

I still believe that the tone of the film and the running time (over 150 minutes) will keep The Dark Knight from setting any new box office records. Iron Man will still be the most successful comic book film of 2008.

 

[Out Of My Vulcan Mind]

The running time shouldn't be too much of a factor. Many of the top-grossing films have long running times - Pirates, LOTR, etc. But the darkness of the film could have somewhat of a limiting factor on the box office - although it's looking like it could become such a huge draw amongst teens and adults (partly because of the allure of Nolan's take on Batman and partly because of a bit of cult frenzy around Ledger) that $300 million domestic or even the top spot domestic spot is a possibility despite some parents keeping their kids away.

 

[Captain Craig]

^^^
The last calendar day of summer or the last day of Hollywoods official summer season?

Terms of the bet are that The Dark Knight must gross $250,000,000.01 by September 21, 2008 (end of summer on the calendar) for JacksonArcher to win.

Maybe I should start saving money for his prize (a Blu-Ray of TDK).

I'd set aside the cash + shipping now if I were you.

Captain Craig, I wouldn't call Wall*E's second and third weekend drops sharp - not in the context of the type of drops that are now typical of summer blockbusters. In fact Wall*E is running slightly ahead of Cars at this point, and Cars had very good legs, grossing four times its opening. It would've taken spectacular legs to carry Wall*E to $300 million. That hasn't come about, but its legs are good so far nonetheless.

It'll finish under Cars, it doesn't have the lasting appeal that Cars or even Rat had due to the nature of its lead in Wall*E. Its legs are decent but more was expected from it, it cost $180m to make reportedly and will not hit that this weekend. I place it around $225m for its take.

...that $300 million domestic or even the top spot domestic spot is a possibility despite some parents keeping their kids away.

The $300m is a higher possibility now no doubt. Some are calling for a $130m opening. Now if it does that and can sustain it the way PotC:2, opened to $135m, then it'll break all kinds of records. It'll have to do like Shrek 3 and open to $121m and sustain that to win the summer. I don't see it sustaining that steam though of either film. As I noted the calendar is working against it. People will be doing other things come mid August and if TDK hasn't gotten to within kissing distance of $300m, and showing life still, by say Aug 24(37 days to $300m & 2 days faster than Indy4) it can kiss the summer crown good bye.

 

[Out Of My Vulcan Mind]

If TDK opens to $130 million then it should take the summer domestic crown - even if it's pretty frontloaded. If it opens to $120 million then it would need to squeeze out longer legs and would have a tougher time of it.

 

[Captain Craig]

Oh and in all the discussion over TDK, IM and Indy we have another member of the $200m club after this weekend in Kung Fu Panda. It now has $202m for its tally and placed #8 for the weekend. Congrats Dreamworks!

So who will win the '08 animation crown? Wall*E is $40m behind and Clone Wars is yet to open?

 

[JacksonArcher]

You're highly likely to lose that bet, Bad Bishop.

It's certainly starting to look that way. The early reviews have been tremendous.

I still believe that the tone of the film and the running time (over 150 minutes) will keep The Dark Knight from setting any new box office records. Iron Man will still be the most successful comic book film of 2008.

I'd be okay with that. However I'm going to say The Dark Knight becomes the highest-grossing film of 2008 as well.

 

[Aragorn]

There should be a battle royal at the end of the year where all the comic book heroes and superheroes of 2008 (Iron Man, Batman, Hulk, Hellboy, Punisher, The Spirit, Hancock) team up to kick the snot out of the Superhero Movie kid.

 

[Bad Bishop]

You're highly likely to lose that bet, Bad Bishop.

It's certainly starting to look that way. The early reviews have been tremendous.

I still believe that the tone of the film and the running time (over 150 minutes) will keep The Dark Knight from setting any new box office records. Iron Man will still be the most successful comic book film of 2008.

I'd be okay with that. However I'm going to say The Dark Knight becomes the highest-grossing film of 2008 as well.

That's what I meant to say about Iron Man.