First movie of 2008 to reach $300M or even $400M???

[chrisspringob]

Nothing *official* yet, but Nikki Finke is saying that Crystal Skull made $25 million on its opening day yesterday:

http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/welcome-back-indy-exclusive-first-numbers/

That is of course quite good, but definitely below expectations, as some were predicting that it might go as high as $40 million. I think she is being overly optimistic in saying that the 5-day opening could be as high as $150 million. I don't see how it goes that high.

Anyway, this is just the opening day, so it would be crazy to get to far ahead of ourselves, and predict a final gross, but $300 million for Indy does look at least a little less likely today than it did yesterday.

 

[Captain Craig]

I saw that $25M figure at FantasyMoguls as well. Even if its +/-$2M that is a good Thursday opening. I think we see this as disapointing cause the predictions are so grossly overinflated anyway. Its similar to calling an election with 40% of the votes counted and then your disapointed when the result changes.

I've always seen Indy 4 as a large 4-day opener with Fri-Sat being its two best days. School is largely out in most parts of the country. My work place is half empty people will be doing something and I think a visit with the Crystal Skulls is going to be on many a mind.

I've doubted $400M but think $300 is still very realistic. It'll have the box office to itself until The Incredible Hulk opens 2 weeks later. Yes, I know some doubt its status as a contender. Its other competition has lost steam or didn't get off the starting line good anyway.

 

[chrisspringob]

Well, I just took a look at this list of top opening days:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/days/?page=open&p=.htm

to compare the total gross / opening day multiplier for other movies that opened on a Wednesday or Thursday. Going from an opening day of $25 million to a total of $300 million is a 12 multiplier, which is awfully hard to do. Passion of the Christ and the Lord of the Rings movies did it, but I doubt Indy will have those kind of legs.

Edit: Oh, and I'm getting a May 2002 vibe from this. Everyone expected Attack of the Clones to win the summer, and it unexpectedly ends up doing worse than the superhero movie that opened a few weeks earlier, at the beginning of May.

 

[sttngfan1701d]

I'm not seeing the movie before Tuesday because I despise full theaters. So I won't be contributing to the opening weekend gross even though I'm a huge Indyfan and it's almost torture to wait. But honestly I don't think the movie will have legs either. Bad word of mouth (which is stupid...people going into the movie in a cynical frame of mind won't enjoy it. If the novelization is any indication, this is a different Indy film than the others, but it's still damn fun) as well as Sex and the City coming out next week will curb the money intake, methinks. Crystal Skull might even be #2 next week and fall to the quartet of self-absorbed New York women.

 

[Kegek]

If the novelization is any indication, this is a different Indy film than the others, but it's still damn fun) as well as Sex and the City coming out next week will curb the money intake, methinks.

I don't think there's much demographic crossover between Indiana Jones and Sex and the City. Sure, I'm sure there are plenty of people who like both, but I'd wager a lot of people interested in the latter aren't keen on the former and vice versa.

 

[wew]

Or maybe Mama Mia might be the sleeper hit of the season- Or not.

In theory Iron Man is the leading candidate since it came out first, but I guess Indiana Jones could potentially do a quick race.

I actually be more interested in seeing what film takes a short amount of time to reach the 100 million, 200 million, etc.

 

[chrisspringob]

Ummmm.....wtf? Now Nikki Finke is saying that Indy did $33 million on Friday:

http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/

That's rather incredible, seeing as how the $25 million from Thursday included the early morning midnight shows. If true, then never mind about this movie underperforming, and never mind about it being a challenge for this to reach $300 million.....so much for everyone rushing out to see it on opening day.

Oh well, so much for predicting total box office just on the basis of opening day (again, if this is even true....still need something official).

 

[John Picard]

I don't think Indy 4 will hit $300M. I just saw some numbers posted this morning and it still wasn't tracking all that impressively. Sadly, I believe it will fizzle.

 

[chrisspringob]

I don't think Indy 4 will hit $300M. I just saw some numbers posted this morning and it still wasn't tracking all that impressively. Sadly, I believe it will fizzle.

Well, they're now projecting $126 million for Thursday-Sunday:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2008&wknd=21&p=.htm

which is quite solid. Better than I would have expected after the first day. If that holds up, then it has a pretty good chance at $300 million. If it simply manages to be no more frontloaded than Revenge of the Sith, it'll make it.

Oh, and Prince Caspian is seriously imploding.

 

[sttngfan1701d]

I don't think Indy 4 will hit $300M. I just saw some numbers posted this morning and it still wasn't tracking all that impressively. Sadly, I believe it will fizzle.

I never thought it would hit $300m personally, but how is $126m in 4 days "not all that impressive"? Paramount is forecasting another $25m tomorrow, what is that...like the third-highest Memorial Day weekend total ever? Pretty impressive in my book, considering this is a franchise that's been dormant for almost 20 years, with a lead that's 65 years old.

 

[Captain Craig]

I don't think Indy 4 will hit $300M. I just saw some numbers posted this morning and it still wasn't tracking all that impressively. Sadly, I believe it will fizzle.

I never thought it would hit $300m personally, but how is $126m in 4 days "not all that impressive"? Paramount is forecasting another $25m tomorrow, what is that...like the third-highest Memorial Day weekend total ever? Pretty impressive in my book, considering this is a franchise that's been dormant for almost 20 years, with a lead that's 65 years old.

Indy scores $126M for 4-day opener.
Its #2 on the Memorial Day weekend openers list.(unadjusted for inflation)
All time 5-day openers Indy scores $151M.

Indy will continue to pull in $8-10M over the Tue-Thur span. School is out and that increases butts in seats. Indy will have around $175M +/- $2m as it goes into weekend #2 against Sex and the City. Even if Indy has a 55% type drop off its 3-day total of $101m it will have a weekend haul of around $45-48m giving its total cume come this time next week of somewhere in the neighborhood of $220m.

Not a bad haul and its still the only major action flick for one more weekend before The Incredible Hulk opens. Indy will be whipping at Iron Mans boot thrusters in the coming 2 weekends.

It could be a much tighter race to $300m than we think.

 

[John Picard]

I don't think Indy 4 will hit $300M. I just saw some numbers posted this morning and it still wasn't tracking all that impressively. Sadly, I believe it will fizzle.

I never thought it would hit $300m personally, but how is $126m in 4 days "not all that impressive"? Paramount is forecasting another $25m tomorrow, what is that...like the third-highest Memorial Day weekend total ever? Pretty impressive in my book, considering this is a franchise that's been dormant for almost 20 years, with a lead that's 65 years old.

Indy scores $126M for 4-day opener.
Its #2 on the Memorial Day weekend openers list.(unadjusted for inflation)
All time 5-day openers Indy scores $151M.

Indy will continue to pull in $8-10M over the Tue-Thur span. School is out and that increases butts in seats. Indy will have around $175M +/- $2m as it goes into weekend #2 against Sex and the City. Even if Indy has a 55% type drop off its 3-day total of $101m it will have a weekend haul of around $45-48m giving its total cume come this time next week of somewhere in the neighborhood of $220m.

Not a bad haul and its still the only major action flick for one more weekend before The Incredible Hulk opens. Indy will be whipping at Iron Mans boot thrusters in the coming 2 weekends.

It could be a much tighter race to $300m than we think.

But Indy's totals are worldwide and not domestic. I believe the original question concerns domestic totals.

 

[chrisspringob]

I never thought it would hit $300m personally, but how is $126m in 4 days "not all that impressive"? Paramount is forecasting another $25m tomorrow, what is that...like the third-highest Memorial Day weekend total ever? Pretty impressive in my book, considering this is a franchise that's been dormant for almost 20 years, with a lead that's 65 years old.

Indy scores $126M for 4-day opener.
Its #2 on the Memorial Day weekend openers list.(unadjusted for inflation)
All time 5-day openers Indy scores $151M.

Indy will continue to pull in $8-10M over the Tue-Thur span. School is out and that increases butts in seats. Indy will have around $175M +/- $2m as it goes into weekend #2 against Sex and the City. Even if Indy has a 55% type drop off its 3-day total of $101m it will have a weekend haul of around $45-48m giving its total cume come this time next week of somewhere in the neighborhood of $220m.

Not a bad haul and its still the only major action flick for one more weekend before The Incredible Hulk opens. Indy will be whipping at Iron Mans boot thrusters in the coming 2 weekends.

It could be a much tighter race to $300m than we think.

But Indy's totals are worldwide and not domestic. I believe the original question concerns domestic totals.

What are you talking about? All of the numbers in the post you quoted *are* domestic, not worldwide.

 

[John Picard]

Indy scores $126M for 4-day opener.
Its #2 on the Memorial Day weekend openers list.(unadjusted for inflation)
All time 5-day openers Indy scores $151M.

Indy will continue to pull in $8-10M over the Tue-Thur span. School is out and that increases butts in seats. Indy will have around $175M +/- $2m as it goes into weekend #2 against Sex and the City. Even if Indy has a 55% type drop off its 3-day total of $101m it will have a weekend haul of around $45-48m giving its total cume come this time next week of somewhere in the neighborhood of $220m.

Not a bad haul and its still the only major action flick for one more weekend before The Incredible Hulk opens. Indy will be whipping at Iron Mans boot thrusters in the coming 2 weekends.

It could be a much tighter race to $300m than we think.

But Indy's totals are worldwide and not domestic. I believe the original question concerns domestic totals.

What are you talking about? All of the numbers in the post you quoted *are* domestic, not worldwide.

I stand corrected. I had just read an article that Indy 4 made $300M worldwide this past weekend.

 

[JacksonArcher]

Indy IV should be able to earn back its production budget with ease. I can definitely see it reaching $400 million worldwide. I think a domestic gross of about $250 million in the least is also likely.

I think perhaps one of the biggest things would be the dropoff, which could be big or not (I'm guessing it'll be big). I don't think it will get upseated by Sex and the City, although wouldn't that be the harbinger of doom?

Regardless, I'm more interested in seeing how The Incredible Hulk does. Marketing is kicking up, and I'm very much looking forward to that film. I hope it does well.

 

[Captain Craig]

Indy IV should be able to earn back its production budget with ease. I can definitely see it reaching $400 million worldwide. I think a domestic gross of about $250 million in the least is also likely.

Easily. It'll be at $250m by or before June 16. I think it tops out around $300M US domestic. Here is another story on its financial success to date from Brietbart.

I think perhaps one of the biggest things would be the dropoff, which could be big or not (I'm guessing it'll be big). I don't think it will get upseated by Sex and the City, although wouldn't that be the harbinger of doom?

I see at least a 55% drop based on the standard 3-day total of $101m. The open ended question for me is "Are there enough women to make SATC a $50m+ opener?". I think it needs that to best Indy 4 this weekend.

Regardless, I'm more interested in seeing how The Incredible Hulk does. Marketing is kicking up, and I'm very much looking forward to that film. I hope it does well.

I couldn't agree more and for those not following the TIH build up drop by and scroll through this thread.

 

[Trubinator]

Indy 4 already grossed over $311 million worldwide in less than a week. Iron Man pwned.

 

[John Picard]

Indy 4 already grossed over $311 million worldwide in less than a week. Iron Man pwned.

Can't you just say, "It trounced Iron Man"? pwned is so derelict, ignorant, and non-descript.

 

[biotech]

Well they used to say owned, then it became pwned, I guess in a few years it will be qwned.

We could start early, and look really trendy.

 

[chrisspringob]

With yesterday's numbers added in, Indy is at a domestic total of about $159:

http://www.showbizdata.com/

Comparing to the 6 day totals of other movies from recent years, I don't see how this movie does not pass $300 million domestic. To not make it to $300 million, it'll have to be more frontloaded than both Pirates sequels, more frontloaded than Revenge of the Sith, and more frontloaded than Matrix Reloaded. Even if it's as frontloaded as Spider-Man 3, it'll still make it to $300 million, albeit just barely.

I was a doubter after the opening day numbers, but I'll now go back to predicting Indy to win the box office crown of 2008.