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The Maple Leaf Lounge

2025's Christmas stamps:

holiday-nativity-stamps-2025.jpg

i like those canada post xmas 2025 stamps
 
Did the NDP MPs say why they abstained? Risking an election doesn't give me the feeling that I'd want to vote for them next time. Actually, I didn't vote for them this past time, as the local candidate didn't even bother with so much as a FB page to say who he was or what he stood for.
My very brief skimming suggests they didn’t support the budget but didn’t want to force an election. If I recall correctly, it was a mix of abstentions and non voting—whatever worked out as the minimum action to avoid triggering an election. Without a leader and with even less funding than usual, they understood it would be political suicide if they were seen as provoking an election. I think the retiring Conservative, whom many believed might have crossed the floor, chose not to vote.

No one actually wanted an election, except perhaps the Bloc. Poilievre is 25 points behind Carney in polling, the NDP would be erased, and it seems Elizabeth May wants to hold onto her seat a bit longer.
 
Did the NDP MPs say why they abstained?

My very brief skimming suggests they didn’t support the budget but didn’t want to force an election. If I recall correctly, it was a mix of abstentions and non voting—whatever worked out as the minimum action to avoid triggering an election. Without a leader and with even less funding than usual, they understood it would be political suicide if they were seen as provoking an election. I think the retiring Conservative, whom many believed might have crossed the floor, chose not to vote.

No one actually wanted an election, except perhaps the Bloc. Poilievre is 25 points behind Carney in polling, the NDP would be erased, and it seems Elizabeth May wants to hold onto her seat a bit longer.

That's basically what I've heard, too. Davies was actually pretty open about the whole thing being strategic; most of the NDP voted against to show that they as a party don't support it, but two of their MPs abstained because they didn't want an election. (And word has it that although she might not like the budget as a whole, Idlout was happy with the infrastructure money earmarked for her riding of Nunavut.)

And Ovation is correct about Conservative MP Jeneroux not voting too, and another Conservative didn't vote, because she was away having surgery. So May voted in favour, 2 NDP MPs abstained (well, they don't have party status in the house, but you know what I mean), and 2 CPC MPs no showed, allowing the budget to pass.

And apparently Conservatives Andrew Scheer and Scott Reid both experienced "technical difficulties" trying to vote electronically, even though they were present, and didn't register their votes until the end of the process. So the word on the street is that was done intentionally as a "failsafe", so that they could ensure that the budget had enough votes to pass, before officially registering their own "no" votes, with the theory being that if something unexpected happened with the NDP voters, either one or both of them could vote "yes" if necessary. Because apparently even as much as he blusters, Poilievre doesn't want an election either.

And neither do I, so I'm glad it worked out so that we don't have to go to the polls again, even if Carney's budget isn't as left-leaning as one I would personally prefer.

Poilievre is 25 points behind Carney in polling

I think that's in their personal favourability, but I think the parties themselves are only 2 - 3 points separated from each other. As much as people seem to think an election would be a slam-dunk majority for the Liberals, I'm not really so sure. Fortunately, we don't have to find out right now.
 
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I think the parties themselves are only 2 - 3 points separated from each other.
You’re right but I think the gap between the leaders would seal the deal for the Liberals—at least if there had been an election. And even if the spread between the parties remained relatively thin, whichever party was blamed for triggering an election would have been punished by the electorate and it’s very likely that would have been in the Liberals’ favour (which might well explain their willingness to make no meaningful concessions and dare the others not once, but thrice, to trigger an election).
 
Thank goodness an election wasn't triggered. Given the usual writ period of 5 weeks, that would have meant voting day would be so close to Christmas as to not make a lot of difference. It would have had to be extended into January (2nd week, most likely). That's too long.
 
You’re right but I think the gap between the leaders would seal the deal for the Liberals—at least if there had been an election. And even if the spread between the parties remained relatively thin, whichever party was blamed for triggering an election would have been punished by the electorate and it’s very likely that would have been in the Liberals’ favour (which might well explain their willingness to make no meaningful concessions and dare the others not once, but thrice, to trigger an election).

I think you're totally right that the party who was blamed for triggering the election would take a hit. I just have a lot of fears around going to the polls around now:
  • Conservative supporters would be super engaged and very likely to vote, because they're still angry about the results from last time
  • Liberal supporters, while still very approving of Carney, might feel less inclined to vote, because they think they've already got it in the bag
  • A lot of people who usually support the NDP strategically voted Liberal to keep the CPC out of power. Would they do so again, knowing it cost their preferred party party status? Not to mention that Carney has moved the Liberals much closer to the centre than they were under Trudeau, so a lot of people on the left flank have been disappointed so far. If the NDP vote recovers, it's bad for the Liberals.
  • And if you add in Timewalker's point about the holidays, people are going to be distracted, in addition to being angry about having to go through this again already.
So with all that, it seems like things could fall out many different ways, and I'm not really sure a 2-3 point lead is that "safe". Remember that the polls close to the last election date showed the Liberals winning a majority too; the fact that they fell (just) short was a bit of a surprise. So I'm very glad that we didn't have to test this theory with an election, because I want to fastidiously avoid anything that may inadvertently lead to "Prime Minister Pierre Poilievre".
 
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