I have a controversial prediction:
I think the 32nd century (as depicted in DIS & SA) won't have a lot of staying power in the franchise & disappear/be sidelined like the Kelvin reboot-verse before.
That might seem illogical, with a new show (Starfleet Academy) launching in said century. But if "Starfleet Academy" isn't an absolute, runaway mainstream success, Star Trek as a franchise will return to the 23-25th century as it's "present" in the long run, purely because the 32nd century is too far removed from "traditional" Star Trek: visually & technology wise, but also lore-wise (Vulcan/Romulan re-unified, non-Federation military Earth, "time-wars" having happened in the past, Klingons nowhere to be found) and most importantly regarding it's general utopian vision, and the feeling this is "our" not too distant future that we can actually reach if we just solve our ridiculous problems of the present.
It's simply too far removed from what "Star Trek" means to most people. And once that happens - once Star Trek decides it's "present" is the 23rd/24th/25th century again - real life technology, vision and storytelling will have further developed and make the 32nd century look outdated, and missing whatever will get introduced to the Trek verse later. And once that happens - the 32nd century will inevitably be downgraded to a "potential", alternate multiverse future stream, like whatever currently happens with the Kelvin-verse in comics & books.
There are two big factors that I think are open questions about the future of
Star Trek which will be relevant to how the 32nd century shows and, honestly, all of the Paramount+ era shows are treated; who ends up owning Paramount (and by extension
Star Trek) and what happens after Kurtzman leaves.
Arguably, I think TOS and TNG are the baseline for what people think of when you say
Star Trek. If Netflix, Amazon, etc., should ever end up with
Star Trek, I could see a new ownership either rebooting everything or going with the idea the Paramount+ shows exist in their own universe, and whatever they create proceeds from either TOS or the TNG era and ignores everything else.
Also, whomever replaces Kurtzman is going to have their own vision for this. It could be someone that comes in and wants to build on what's already there. Or it could be someone that wants to take things back to square one and doesn't want to have to live with some of the choices like "The Burn," even going beyond detached nacelles and personal transporters. I'm also curious, if Paramount is not sold and their financial issues persist, whether there will be a "pause" in new material similar to the gap between
Enterprise and
Star Trek (2009) in order to have a reassessment of the IP.
I would assume that Paramount would want to do something "big" for the 60th anniversary in the form of a movie release. But what exactly would that movie be at this point? Its been 8 years since a
Star Trek movie release.
Beyond underperformed and lost money. I don't think there's a huge clamoring among the public to get back to the Kelvin Universe. And, if you're a Paramount executive, does any of this sound like a good idea when the entire concept of spending $200+ million on a film is starting to become questionable when people aren't going to movie theaters to watch movies the same way they used to?
That's why I think we get reports about possible movie ideas every 4-6 months. The people at Paramount have all of these ideas that are reported to be in various stages of production, but in the end I think what holds back at least something from it getting made is they can't justify the math of it. The only way I think a big-budget
Star Trek movie gets made in the next 2 years is if someone new comes in similar to what happened with (2009), a big name director/producer, who possibly gets big stars interested. And if you bring someone new in, they will probably want to put their own spin on things. And, if that happens, how does that spin filter down to the TV shows?