Maybe in that timeline, Phase II undergoes the same production process that TNG went through (since Decker and Ilia are thinly veiled early versions of Riker and Troi anyway), and Roddenberry was either forced out or pushed to the background after season 1 and someone new brought in had the backing of Paramount to reshape Star Trek?In For All Mankind, TWOK would be impossible. In the remote chance it would happen, it would be unrecognizable and probably nowhere near as good.
The Enterprise would be the Phase II Enterprise. If Ph2 ran from 1977 to 1982 and TWOK came out in 1983, those sets as were would've been laughed at on the Big Screen. Robert Wise gave the sets an extensive makeover for a reason.
Xon would've been in Phase II instead of Spock. Which means "Star Trek without Spock!" goes from unimaginable to something they'd already done for five years. So, no Spock in TWOK, and no Harve Bennett offering to kill off Spock as a hook to get Leonard Nimoy involved. In fact, no Harve Bennett at all. More on that later.
The script for a Star Trek Movie would've been written in-house by Phase II writers, just like the script for the first TNG Movie was written in-house by TNG writers. And they likely would've come up with a very different idea, that they would've rushed through the creative process, just like what happened IRL over a decade later with Generations. The script for TWOK was put together from the best parts of several different scripts written by several different writers.
A first Star Trek movie in For All Mankind would be a cheap-looking rush job put together by TV writers, a TV director, and it would be something that Gene Roddenberry would approve of. Because I think what would've happened on Phase II would've been similar to what happened on TNG. Gene would be heavily involved at first, then less involved as time went on. Only difference is he'd still be alive, wouldn't be in such poor health, and would have more power than "Consultant". He would very much be an Executive Producer. Which means no need to bring in Harve Bennett to replace him. And even if Harve Bennett (who was hired by Paramount in 1980) was brought on as a Co-Executive Producer similar to the way Rick Berman was, he wasn't on the same page as Gene Roddenberry at all on the direction Star Trek should go in, so he wouldn't have lasted long on Phase II in any scenario. Forget about making it to the movies.
So, basically, it's a whole other movie. TWOK isn't TWOK and the TOS Movies go in a very different direction. Assuming they'd get to make any, since I think this movie would've been crushed by Return of the Jedi.
Season 1 and 2 - Basically the V'GER story but with Kirk as always being the Captain of the Enterprise with Xon, Decker, and Ilia added to the cast (i.e., getting the crew back together, episodic adventures that lead to the confrontation with V'GER). You could rewrite the Spock parts to be about Xon having issues dealing with having an emotional reaction. Just like The Motion Picture and TNG seasons 1 and 2, this receives a lukewarm reaction, and just like Voyager years later on UPN, the series endures anyway since it's the anchor of Paramount's new network.
What if by season 3 someone like Harve Bennett is brought in to take over and change the direction of the show?
Seasons 3-5 - The time in-between The Motion Picture and The Wrath of Khan, maybe the maroon uniforms come out and the storylines become more militaristic which maybe just like TNG finds lightning in a bottle and creates something that captures people's imagination the same way that "Best of Both Worlds" did and turns the show into a hot enough property to warrant a movie.
For the first movie they decide they need something BIG to draw in viewers and were able to do that by promising Leonard Nimoy to kill him off in a spectacular fashion. Instead of the crossover between TNG and TOS, what can you do that would be similar? Bring back Spock. If you tweak The Wrath of Khan to also be about Kirk and Spock reconnecting after a prolonged time, that arguably makes the sacrifice at the end even more gut wrenching and you can basically have the same film with the same beats.
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