The chances of progressive changes from a 2024 riot

[Bad Thoughts]

Yes, this is a poll and post related to Past Tense.

There are plenty of posts saying that the episodes were indeed prescient about the problems that American society would face in the 2020s. I'm more curious to know how people think events will unfold if such a riot as the Bell Riots happen next year. The story puts forth the idea that the rioters were able to put forward a positive image of their plight by taking control of the information outlets available to them, in order to show that they are indeed respectable people. Thereafter, American society (and humanity) recommitted itself to finding solutions to homelessness, as well as its associated causes and problems, with the technologies available to them at the time. Picard Season 2 suggests that some discoveries may have had a hand, but Past Tense suggests that we don't need to wait to start improving society and realizing the better future shown in Star Trek.

Will the government, state or federal, lock down places where the homeless gather?

Will the internet and the social media be the focus of efforts of the homeless or other people out on their luck to appeal to the broader swath of American society? Will those appeals hit home?

How would Americans interpret the violence of a minority of the rioters?

Would a riot lead to a commitment to find solutions to homelessness that address the nature of employment, mental illness, and immigration?

What ways might such a commitment be exploited or undermined?

 

[Oddish]

I don't think there will be a 2024 riot over homelessness. Not of that scale.

I live in one of the more homeless-heavy areas of the country, due in part to high cost of housing and in part to above average services available for homeless people. And there's never even been any discussion of herding them into a given area.

Of course, with fentanyl becoming more available and us veering toward legalizing narcotics, the number if addicts is likely to climb, and the situation is likely to become worse. And, our national debt is an economic time bomb, which could trigger a financial crisis and render us unable to provide more conventional services to them. So who knows what insanity we'll come up with... what didn't happen in 2024 might happen in 2044 instead.

 

[kkt]

We're still pretty far from locking homeless people up for no reason except being homeless. And it's still reasonably possible to get jobs, even if they don't pay as much as many would like. Such a riot is pretty unlikely now. And even if it would happen the chance that a single one would change public policy seems small.

 

[Jedi Marso]

Zero.

Half the country's big liberal cities burned in the past couple years. The problems are worse, if anything.

 

[kkt]

Really? as a resident of one of the country's big liberal cities, I think I would have noticed if it had burned.

Summer of 2020 I did notice "news" stations showing four different angles of the same dumpster on fire for hours every day.

 

[Imaus]

The truth is thankfully the US has averted the worse courses of the negative, urban-killing trends of the 70s and 80s.

Cities are mostly fine. There is some population flight, of course, but there is no solid correlation between cities, governance, crime, debt. DC and San Fran have surpluses. NYC is cutting down on its debt (we'll see how this migrant issue goes), most of the top 10 dangerous US cities are in the middle and south, with a mix of parties.

Homelessness is a 'issue' inso much the city writes off a few blocks and lets that run riot while local and municipal services ramp up reactionary and sanitary measures. San Fran is often toted as a 'hellhole' but only 7k of its 800k, and up to 8 mil metro, are homeless, (with thus 70k homeless all around, following that trend). NYC has 80k homeless within its main city and up to 150k over the metro area of 20 mil, these are of course horrendous failings on the housing and poverty issue, but not enough for Star Trek level Sanctuary Districts. Even adding the influx of Migrants, that's around 90k for NYC so far, the issue won't boil over *that* much.

As for finding a sort of humane concern for those under plight and distress...that won't work. It's a tv invention. The Afghan Girl with Green Eyes barely made a dent to actually go to Afghanistan, and spokespeople like Nayirah of Kuwait and Greta of Sweden (with a lot more controvery around Nayirah ) sometimes work for a bit, but are often part of bigger trends (the Gulf War, Climate Change) and don't spark anything, just reinforce. No, the US won't suddenly see a riot from the homeless and be wooed by a charismatic one. It didn't happen during Occupy or BLM, where there was a lot of mouthpieces and hot air but ultimately, again, those were already a result of problems on the ground and currents already in motion, they don't set off new ones.

 

[Tenacity]

The chances of progressive changes from a 2024 riot

More likely it will be progressives that make things worse, regardless if there is a riot or not.

"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results." Albert Einstein.

 

[Weyoun 251]

What are you on there? Did those progressives who fought for women's rights to vote, for civil rights through the 60s, for the rights to marry whoever you please make things worse?

 

[Tenacity]

progressives who fought for women's rights to vote, for civil rights through the 60s

That was the Republicans. Who voted for and against is easily looked up.

 

[Weyoun 251]

That was the Republicans. Who voted for and against is easily looked up.

For the non Americans in the room - are you trying to say the Republicans brought in those changes and giving them credit?

Because I do know that Democrats and Republicans effectively swapped positions in the early 1900s but your comment was about progressives and so not strictly part of the binary party position

 

[Poltargyst]

That was the Republicans. Who voted for and against is easily looked up.

I don't have much interest in looking it up, but if you're saying that Republicans passed the women's right to vote and civil rights legislation, then you are saying that in those cases the Republicans were the progressives in which case the progressives made things better not worse unless you're saying women shouldn't be allowed to vote or there shouldn't be civil rights legislation.

 

[kkt]

In the early 1960s, one of the Democrats' core constituencies was the southern establishment, which was not interested in civil rights legislation. But there was also a progressive wing of the Democrats which did want civil rights legislation. The progressive wing of the Democrats partnered with some of the Republicans to get it passed. In the late 1960s, Nixon's wing of the Republicans adopted the Southern Strategy, in which the Republicans would be opposed to any further civil rights work, and a lot of the southern establishment wing of the Democrats switched over to the Republicans then.

 

[Richard S. Ta]

0%

@Imaus said it better than I will ever be capable of expressing.

 

[FederationHistorian]

IDK.

What’s being suggested, if there still are riots in 2024, it will result in someone with Bernie Sanders/AOC/Cornell West political leanings coming to power, all of whom how are more progressive than Biden. At the time of this post, only Cornell West is running to be on the Green Party’s nominee for the presidential elections. I am not sure how informed you are about politics, but Green parties do not normally take power in any corner of the globe. Even with rumors swirling of a third party forming in the US for 2024, and The Orange One threatening to run third party if he isn’t the GOP nominee, it is extremely unlikely that the Green Party will win in 2024. At best, they gain some seats in a legislature somewhere and influence policy. Now, if you are suggesting that there will be a blue wave or a blue tsunami, which would provide more allies for the Bernie Sanders and AOCs of Congress, thereby allowing for a more progressive mandate for Biden, then that’s more plausible.

As for the riots themselves, the riots exists during a time in the Star Trek universe where there seems to be unrest in the Western world in general. And the event that causes that type of unrest doesn’t even need something going from in the US for it to affect the US and the world as a whole. There are only a few scenarios IRL that come to mind.

- China could have a financial collapse of its own. Its been predicted for a while by various YT channels. And while those predictions have been wrong for now, what happens when they are right, considering how integrated the global economy is?

- The regime in Russia could decide to press the red button and make the Mistake in Kyiv in response to the war on Ukraine, which would affect the economy. God forbid that happens.

- There was a banking crisis earlier this year related to crypto, with the banks involved posting some of the largest bank losses ever, that was stopped. Unless there are more of these waiting in the wings, its unlikely to cause the conditions seen in “Past Tense”.

- There is a cost of living crisis going on; its big news in Canada right now that people can’t afford homes, along with various issues related to inflation and stagnant wages, and every other post on the Canada subreddit is about the housing crisis. That could snowball into riots in the near future, though the riots in Star Trek are in America, not Canada. Though, if the Freedom Convoy is anything to go by, events in Canada can be emulated in other countries around the world, so maybe the riots were emulating a riot that happened in Canada earlier in the year. That’s all speculation, though. Its just strikes up here, like in many other parts of the globe.

- Its all still related to the Covid recession, which exacerbated wealth inequality issues, but its only until the riots in 2024 that its revealed just how economically devastating it has been. This is the most plausible scenario, especially since in the Star Trek universe all of those districts were supposed to have been nationwide by 2020, when Covid hit.

I’m not sure what other conditions would cause things to get that bad.

The simplest answer is that its a tv show with a fictionalized version of 2024. In this same 2024, humans are on manned missions to Io; humanity isn't even close to such missions IRL.

The truth is thankfully the US has averted the worse courses of the negative, urban-killing trends of the 70s and 80s.

And there was a time where the 1990s were prophesied as a dystopia.

Cities are mostly fine. There is some population flight, of course, but there is no solid correlation between cities, governance, crime, debt. DC and San Fran have surpluses. NYC is cutting down on its debt (we'll see how this migrant issue goes), most of the top 10 dangerous US cities are in the middle and south, with a mix of parties.

Population flight from California to Texas has been a known thing for a while. While all based on cost of living, the lawlessness and untidiness in San Fransisco doesn't help with perceptions.

San Fran is often toted as a 'hellhole' but only 7k of its 800k, and up to 8 mil metro, are homeless, (with thus 70k homeless all around, following that trend). NYC has 80k homeless within its main city and up to 150k over the metro area of 20 mil, these are of course horrendous failings on the housing and poverty issue, but not enough for Star Trek level Sanctuary Districts.

That’s rather dismissive, as those numbers are the size of some college towns in the US. And aren’t that far off from the total enrollment number in US colleges.

It only takes a few to make an impact. That's a message often repeated in Star Trek.

No, the US won't suddenly see a riot from the homeless and be wooed by a charismatic one. It didn't happen during Occupy or BLM, where there was a lot of mouthpieces and hot air but ultimately, again, those were already a result of problems on the ground and currents already in motion, they don't set off new ones.

There’s also the possibility that its already happened in our time, re: George Floyd riots and the Covid pandemic/recession leading to Biden’s presidency, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the Chauvin conviction. Its not homelessness, but they are still responses to a major issue that has been building for years.

 

[Tenacity]

are you trying to say the Republicans brought in those changes

Yes.

if you're saying that Republicans passed the women's right to vote and civil rights legislation

Yes.

then you are saying that in those cases the Republicans were the progressives

No, that not what I'm saying.

 

[Poltargyst]

Yes.Yes.No, that not what I'm saying.

But those were progressive actions.

 

[Ragitsu]

Uh...Star Trek?

 

[Weyoun 251]

Yes.Yes.No, that not what I'm saying.

Can you try and elaborate on what you are saying then?

It might be obvious to you but, especially for someone looking from outside the US sphere, it doesn't always become immediately obvious

 

[suarezguy]

Probably 1-20%, on the lower side of that but I'm still be willing to select 1-24%. If it did happen there would mostly just be anger against it rather than understanding or willingness for generosity, definitely a lot of (understandable, reasonable) cross-fingerpointing about was it the nation or the states or the cities themselves that were failing and from that unwillingness to take much strong action at any of those levels. There could be some even kind of significant increase in federal aid but not so much that the federal government would even want to be really associated (to avoid getting more blame later) or that anyone would think would be significant enough as response.