Is it that time of the year again? Do we really have to do the complex and highly detailed Order-66 survivor arithmetic? Are we doomed to repeat the same lazily thought out arguments and complaints about "yet another Order 66 survivor!" over and over like some very nerdy groundhog day?
OK, one more time won't hurt I suppose: 10,000 Jedi
KNIGHTS were around during the Clone Wars (yes, Masters count as Knights too.) Assuming a 10% casualty rate during the course of the war, and that Order 66 is 99% effective (both very generous assumptions) that still leaves approximately
ninety fully trained Jedi Knights in the wind at day zero of the new order.
And what about Padawans? Well let's be really stingy and assume that only 50% of all active Knights and Masters had a Padawan in tow. So that's 4500-5000 apprentices knocking around when all hell breaks loose. Again, assume 99% success rate in clone based surprise murders, that's a very conservative total of
forty five padawans at various stages of their training, running loose galaxy wide; befriending pirates, and getting gainful employment as scrappers, part-time mechanics, agricultural labourers, and future insurgent spymasters.
So now our estimated running total is up to
One Hundred and Thirty Five Masters, Knights and Padawans running every which way, and Vader hasn't even got his damn boots on yet!
But what about the Initiates? Well however many there were, it's a fair bet that MOST of them were at the temple (
but not all) and thus most of them didn't make it . . . but we know of at least two that did (granted one ended up an Inquisitor anyway, and we still don't know what the hell happened with Grogu . . . yet) but it's clearly possible.
So again let's make the wildly broad assumption that there were about 2000 Initiates at the Temple and elsewhere, and that 99% of them ran into Master Skywalker and the boys of the 501st. So that's 20 partly trained, masterless Initiate survivors aged about 5-14, fleeing down to level 1313 to start an exciting new career in streetratting, and learning fun new skills like "not being eaten alive by conduit worms in your sleep when the local power grid goes out".
So that brings our final total up to approximately
One Hundred and Fifty Five partly or fully trained force sensitives Richard Kimbleing it across the galaxy.
Let's assume for a moment that Vader and his inquisitorius get the most work done in the early days and that by the end of year one, that number is cut in half (often literally), leaving only 77 Jedi to half-hearted celebrate the first Empire Day. But what about later on? Well it's survival of the fittest, so whoever made it this far is going to be twice as hard to find and twice as hard to capture or kill. So let's say that each subsequent year the percentage of survivors eliminated goes down by half compared to the previous year.
Now we're into diminishing returns as Vader's interest level wanders, spending most of his time discussing architecture and resurrection spells with a possessed mask of a dead Sith Lord, and the Inquisitors get ever more competitive and backbitey to the point of actively sabotaging one another.
That means that within 5 years, all progress has effectively ground to a halt with the Inquisition barely Inquisiting one actual Jedi a year, instead focusing on kidnapping new ly minted force sensitive "recruits" for Wayland's genetic research and bio-mass harvesting program.
At that rate, by the time of ANH there could potentially be something in the order of 40-odd survivors of Order 66 still at large (not accounting for non-redblade related deaths along the way.) Whether many of them would still consider themselves Jedi at this point is of course another matter. Most have probably long since moved on. Abandoned their sabres, forgotten most if not all of their training, started families of their own, and have zero interest in going anywhere near a set of robes ever again.
So no, it's not a stretch to add one more survivor to the list, especially that it's probably less than 18 months since the end of the war.
Oh yeah the lead Trandosian is from that arc too.
Did the batchers meet Venomor in the Clone Wars arc? They don't seem to recognize him here, at least there's no dialogue about it.
It seems they kept it ambiguous on purpose, and it's hard to really tell one way or the other since we don't really know the plot of that arc, let alone the fate of that one character.