Spoilers Coda: Book 3: Oblivion's Gate by David Mack Review Thread

[rfmcdpei]

^ The problem is that the chronologies of the Prime universe's narrative of Eisn going supernova and the STO narrative of distant Hobus exploding simply do not match up. Both supernovas took the Romulans and their neighbours by surprise, but in the Prime universe they had years of advance warning while in STO they had mere weeks. Beyond that, it seems as if things were fundamentally different in other respects, perhaps most notably for our purposes with Federation-Romulan relations being friendlier in the STO timeline.

Neither has that much in common with the litverse. Most notably, the litverse features a devastating Borg invasion circa 2381 that never happened in the other two timelines, a period of Romulan division into two states that only occurred in those timelines after the supernova, and a reformist pro-Federation praetor who was sincere in trying to build up a working relationship with the Federation. There are also subtle differences between STO and the litverse, for instance with Bajor becoming a Federation member at a much later date in STO as compared to the litverse. There is no particular reason to think that the highly contingent chain of events which led to the Hobus supernova in STO, which included a Romulan manipulated by Iconians during a protracted period of political instability within the Star Empire, would have been likely to occur in the litverse.

(It occurs to me that the Iconians in the litverse and STO are very different. In Gateways, we saw the Iconians as a benign elder race that had withdrawn from the universe; in STO, we saw the Iconians as a race actively pursuing a millennial vendetta against the Romulans, among other species. Maybe the two timelines simply encountered different branches of an Iconians civilization that had split over the eons?)

 

[captainmkb]

^ The problem is that the chronologies of the Prime universe's narrative of Eisn going supernova and the STO narrative of distant Hobus exploding simply do not match up. Both supernovas took the Romulans and their neighbours by surprise, but in the Prime universe they had years of advance warning while in STO they had mere weeks. Beyond that, it seems as if things were fundamentally different in other respects, perhaps most notably for our purposes with Federation-Romulan relations being friendlier in the STO timeline.

Neither has that much in common with the litverse. Most notably, the litverse features a devastating Borg invasion circa 2381 that never happened in the other two timelines, a period of Romulan division into two states that only occurred in those timelines after the supernova, and a reformist pro-Federation praetor who was sincere in trying to build up a working relationship with the Federation. There are also subtle differences between STO and the litverse, for instance with Bajor becoming a Federation member at a much later date in STO as compared to the litverse. There is no particular reason to think that the highly contingent chain of events which led to the Hobus supernova in STO, which included a Romulan manipulated by Iconians during a protracted period of political instability within the Star Empire, would have been likely to occur in the litverse.

(It occurs to me that the Iconians in the litverse and STO are very different. In Gateways, we saw the Iconians as a benign elder race that had withdrawn from the universe; in STO, we saw the Iconians as a race actively pursuing a millennial vendetta against the Romulans, among other species. Maybe the two timelines simply encountered different branches of an Iconians civilization that had split over the eons?)

i assume branching like that whenever i see different portrayals of same-groups across different continuity. head-canon to keep one sane

the thing with the supernovae is that a supernova should really only devastate a system or a close-knit cluster of systems (as space is, in real life, well.. big. and adds the consideration that a supernova should travel the speed of light, as in "taking years to devastate the next system over"). the way ST2009 and STPicard tie-ins describe the supernova(e) is that it cleared off a lot of the mapboard - as in many neighboring systems, all wiped of their planets.

Hobus would have to be artificially strong or overpowered to reach all the way from Hobus being a separate system, across light years (faster than the speed of light BTW) all the way into the Romulan system (and begs the question, was this powerful enough to touch off a sympathetic explosion in the Romulan sun?)

The Eisn supernova in the first STPicard novel was also portrayed as reaching across systems, also FTL speed (as a lightspeed explosion would take years to reach Nimbus, light years away).. since so many other systems would be caught in the blast, that's their plot armor that there just arent good places to take all these people fleeing. And again, is this one sun exploding and just frying planets, or are the other suns being touched off to explode themselves.

if there's a Hobus in the canon universe, it would probably be blasted by the Eisn supernova so the net effect is that, regardless of continuity/universe - both Eisn and Hobus are getting fried by each other, so we get the same effect, regardless of cause

 

[Enterprise1701]

Well here we are. I have to say 10.5 years is a long time to hold one's exit open waiting for a boot

I mean, I'm pretty sure DIS 3.05 "Die Trying" puts a nail in the coffin for the continued existence of the Terran Empire.

 

[captainmkb]

I mean, I'm pretty sure DIS 3.05 "Die Trying" puts a nail in the coffin for the continued existence of the Terran Empire.

in that timeline

 

[Christopher]

the thing with the supernovae is that a supernova should really only devastate a system or a close-knit cluster of systems

Where did you get that idea? Yes, the effects would propagate at the speed of light, but realisticaly, a typical supernova's radiation could cause mass extinctions on planets up to 30-50 light years away, and cause climate damage and widespread radiation sickness on planets 50 to 100 light years away. Given the density of inhabited planets in Trek, it could easily endanger hundreds of worlds -- something Trek has all too often ignored in the past (e.g. Minara, Beta Niobe, Amargosa).

https://earthsky.org/astronomy-essentials/supernove-distance/

Granted, a star with habitable planets is much smaller than a typical supernova star, so something anomalous would have to happen to cause it to blow up at all and the danger zone might be smaller as a result. But it's entirely plausible that the devastation would affect planets dozens of light-years away.

 

[Orion's Belt 27]

I will say, as a fan of alternate history, that making not the 2379 of post-Nemesis the point of divergence for the litverse but rather 2373 gives the two timelines more time to breathe and diverge.

Spoiler

Whaa ...?! OK, that is VERY interesting.

Would you care to share what happens to Beverly and Rene by the end of the book? I've been dying to know since the blurb was released and can't wait till Tuesday to find out.

 

[captainmkb]

... the effects would propagate at the speed of light, but realisticaly, a typical supernova's radiation could cause mass extinctions on planets up to 30-50 light years away, and cause climate damage and widespread radiation sickness on planets 50 to 100 light years away. Given the density of inhabited planets in Trek, it could easily endanger hundreds of worlds....

Yes, but propogating at the speed of light would mean that the planets that are more than a dozen light years away would still be habitable by the time of Picard season 1 - and they would still be able to evacuate. The story we're presented with is that the whole thing was instantaneous. finished.

at least with the Countdown / Star Trek Online version, there was an unprecedented anomalous type of event causing it to both be a subspace and FTL disaster. by ret-con of the Hobus backstory, they've made it a lot less explainable that Nimbus and other Romulan colonies would be involved/also devastated

... granted, a star with habitable planets is much smaller than a typical supernova star, so something anomalous would have to happen to cause it to blow up at all and the danger zone might be smaller as a result. But it's entirely plausible that the devastation would affect planets dozens of light-years away.

again, according to Star Charts and even canon references where theyve taken the time to mention distances, systems in Star Trek are in fact dozens of lightyears apart.

a 'regular' supernova might have a chance of devastating a few dozen systems, with a percentage of those being habitable and inhabited - but it would take a few dozen years to do so and every prior source shows the Romulan Empire being larger than a few dozen light years and having more than a few dozen inhabited worlds. it doesnt add up.

the core of the STPicard canon story is that there were probably billions of Romulans in the Romulan system itself, and that the efforts to evacuate them didn't materialize, which should have enough punch for casual viewers - fine. the simplification of the refugee situation is just bizarre unless there's more backstory to be provided

 

[Christopher]

Yes, but propogating at the speed of light would mean that the planets that are more than a dozen light years away would still be habitable by the time of Picard season 1 - and they would still be able to evacuate. The story we're presented with is that the whole thing was instantaneous. finished.

As far as I recall, they never said anything of the sort. But you're focusing on the wrong part of what I said. It's an established fact that Trek supernova effects do propagate FTL, so I was not disputing that. My point is that it is entirely wrong to assert that supernovae "should" only affect a small volume. Even if the speed of the effect is fanciful, the extent of it is not.

 

[rfmcdpei]

i assume branching like that whenever i see different portrayals of same-groups across different continuity. head-canon to keep one sane

I am not sure this is how Trek has worked. There are plenty of Trek timelines that are notably divergent—timelines where Picard was killed with the Borg cube, where the Borg overran the Federation, where the Bajorans became an aggressive power, where Romulus was occupied by the Klingons, where the Romulans destroyed DS9 and collapsed the wormhole, where the Klingons established a protectorate over Bajor, et cetera.

The only backstory we have for the Hobus supernova in STO suggests that it could not have happened. If the Iconian vendetta against Romulus was set off by Sela's manipulations, well, Sela has died in the litverse. That pathway cannot exist in the litverse.

the thing with the supernovae is that a supernova should really only devastate a system or a close-knit cluster of systems (as space is, in real life, well.. big. and adds the consideration that a supernova should travel the speed of light, as in "taking years to devastate the next system over").

As @Christopher noted, this is not true. Supernovas can easily have lethal radii of dozens of light-years, capable of destabilizing the biospheres of worlds far from the star.

The core areas of Romulan space do seem to be more densely populated with stars and planets than the core areas of Federation space. Ten light-years from Earth would encompass only Alpha Centauri; ten light-years from Romulus encompasses perhaps dozens of worlds with a population numbering in the hundreds of millions. This is not intrinsically implausible; stellar densities can vary.

the way ST2009 and STPicard tie-ins describe the supernova(e) is that it cleared off a lot of the mapboard - as in many neighboring systems, all wiped of their planets.

[. . .]

The Eisn supernova in the first STPicard novel was also portrayed as reaching across systems, also FTL speed (as a lightspeed explosion would take years to reach Nimbus, light years away)..

I have my copy of The Last Best Hope, and that book says nothing about the effects of the supernova being FTL. The only thing that it says about the supernova is that worlds within ten light-years will need to be evacuated.

Could it be FTL? Sure, the case can be made: There are examples from Trek of supernovas having FTL effects, like the Amargosa supernova having effects across an entire sector. Massively energetic events like supernovas are as good candidates for pushing into subspace as anything.

That, however, is not necessary to explain the death toll. The Last Best Hope and the tie-in comics and Picard itself explain that the problem is a logistical one, of building the ships that will evacuate billions and of resettling them. The death toll could just as easily be explained by a slow advance of the supernova wavefront through normal space, with inhabitants of worlds close to Romulus knowing that death was coming but also knowing that neither the Romulan nor anyone else would be in a position to evacuate them.

Then there were the worlds left behind. The worlds that had been waiting for salvation. Refugees, huddled into transit camps, looking up at skies for ships that were no longer coming. Shall we think about what must have happened to them? These lives that, as it turned out, counted for so little in the great scheme of things. Can we bear to imagine what came next? The slow death of hope and the sudden birth of despair—and at last, the violent, screaming end.

That depiction fits conventional and FTL supernova models, IMHO.

If there's a Hobus in the canon universe, it would probably be blasted by the Eisn supernova so the net effect is that, regardless of continuity/universe - both Eisn and Hobus are getting fried by each other, so we get the same effect, regardless of cause

There is no particular reason to think that the star Hobus, if it even exists in the litverse, must be destroyed by Eisn. If anything, there might be an amusing symmetry to the idea of different stars surviving in different timelines.

 

[rfmcdpei]

Yes, but propogating at the speed of light would mean that the planets that are more than a dozen light years away would still be habitable by the time of Picard season 1 - and they would still be able to evacuate. The story we're presented with is that the whole thing was instantaneous. finished.

What would be the point of resettling refugees on worlds that are bound to become uninhabitable in a very short time? It would seem costly and time-consuming just when money and time would be things everyone would be running short of.

On top of this, Romulan civilization was falling apart under the strain, faced with an impossible task of moving billions of people complicated by Romulan fears and paranoias. The Star Empire itself fell; the Free State, if we are to go by Chabon, is only one successor state if the most prominent one. Especially with the Federation pulling out, there may well not be anyone in a position to mount massive evacuations.

 

[rfmcdpei]

Spoiler

Whaa ...?! OK, that is VERY interesting.

Would you care to share what happens to Beverly and Rene by the end of the book? I've been dying to know since the blurb was released and can't wait till Tuesday to find out.

Spoiler

There is an affecting scene between Picard and Sisko, where they talk about their fears for their children conceived after 2373. Will they exist in the Prime timeline?

We know that Sisko's child, conceived after the 2373 Borg attack in DS9 season 7, exists in the Prime timeline. Granted, that is all we know; we do not know that the Prime timeline child is the same as Rebecca. Picard's child, though, conceived with Beverly Crusher in 2380 in the litverse, does not exist in the Prime timeline.

Picard and Beverly and René do spend their last minutes together, at least.

(We know nothing about Beverly's fate in the Prime timeline.)

 

[Allyn Gibson]

Random epiphany I had last evening...

The Shatnerverse probably branches off the Prime Timeline, which is why its Titan has more in common with The Dark Veil's Titan than Titan's Titan.

 

[Christopher]

The core areas of Romulan space do seem to be more densely populated with stars and planets than the core areas of Federation space. Ten light-years from Earth would encompass only Alpha Centauri; ten light-years from Romulus encompasses perhaps dozens of worlds with a population numbering in the hundreds of millions. This is not intrinsically implausible; stellar densities can vary.

There are multiple star systems within ten light-years of Earth -- there's also Barnard's Star, Wolf 359, Lalande 21185, Sirius, Luyten 726-8, V1216 Sagitarii, and two known brown dwarf systems. Several of those have known or suspected planets, which could potentially have colonies even if they haven't been explicitly established. None of them are particularly promising candidates for habitability, but neither are Rigel, Deneb, Vega, Altair, etc.

Also, humans have only been colonizing space for a few centuries as of the supernova; Romulus was settled nearly 2000 years before. The Romulans would've had centuries to terraform (ch'Rihanform?) planets near Romulus.

That, however, is not necessary to explain the death toll. The Last Best Hope and the tie-in comics and Picard itself explain that the problem is a logistical one, of building the ships that will evacuate billions and of resettling them. The death toll could just as easily be explained by a slow advance of the supernova wavefront through normal space, with inhabitants of worlds close to Romulus knowing that death was coming but also knowing that neither the Romulan nor anyone else would be in a position to evacuate them.

Also the political and social upheaval of any such massive evacuation could result in a high death toll, especially if there's mass panic, or if the relaxation of a dictatorship's iron fist causes rebellions and sectarian strife to be unleashed.

There is no particular reason to think that the star Hobus, if it even exists in the litverse, must be destroyed by Eisn. If anything, there might be an amusing symmetry to the idea of different stars surviving in different timelines.

A supernova could not destroy any other star except a close binary companion within its own system. The planets of nearby systems would be subjected to radiation that could strip their atmospheres or sterilize their biospheres, but the planets themselves and their primary stars would remain physically intact.

 

[rfmcdpei]

There are multiple star systems within ten light-years of Earth -- there's also Barnard's Star, Wolf 359, Lalande 21185, Sirius, Luyten 726-8, V1216 Sagitarii, and two known brown dwarf systems. Several of those have known or suspected planets, which could potentially have colonies even if they haven't been explicitly established. None of them are particularly promising candidates for habitability, but neither are Rigel, Deneb, Vega, Altair, etc.

Also, humans have only been colonizing space for a few centuries as of the supernova; Romulus was settled nearly 2000 years before. The Romulans would've had centuries to terraform (ch'Rihanform?) planets near Romulus.

The Last Best Hope mentions one Romulan world being evacuated where things were complicated by ongoing terraforming.

Core Federation space does seem to be different from core Romulan space in that key worlds are more widely scattered. If Sol was going to face the same star-death as Eisn, with a ten light-years radius of disaster, then that would leave worlds like Tellar, Andor, and Vulcan outside the sphere. These heavily developed systems could presumably take over, especially if given almost a decade's advance warning.

Also the political and social upheaval of any such massive evacuation could result in a high death toll, especially if there's mass panic, or if the relaxation of a dictatorship's iron fist causes rebellions and sectarian strife to be unleashed.

We know that the Romulan Star Empire is ended by the tumult.

There may well be plenty of Romulans evacuated from the disaster zone, if not nearly enough. They may well also be plenty of Romulans living on worlds outside the disaster zone. (We know from Discovery that, even after reunification, a distinctive cultures of Romulan background not only survive but extend far beyond Vulcan.) Even so, the failure to oversee a successful evacuation of Romulus and its nearest worlds can surely bring down a regime that was tottering already.

A supernova could not destroy any other star except a close binary companion within its own system. The planets of nearby systems would be subjected to radiation that could strip their atmospheres or sterilize their biospheres, but the planets themselves and their primary stars would remain physically intact.

TLDR if a supernova destroyed other stars, in almost every case it would be because it was somehow made to destroy these.

 

[Christopher]

(We know from Discovery that, even after reunification, a distinctive cultures of Romulan background not only survive but extend far beyond Vulcan.)

Do we? The Romulans we saw were citizens of Ni'Var. Although it does stand to reason that an already interstellar culture would not cease to be interstellar even if it came to center around a different homeworld.

TLDR if a supernova destroyed other stars, in almost every case it would be because it was somehow made to destroy these.

The point is that it's a silly hypothetical in the first place. Why would you want it to destroy other stars anyway? What matters from a narrative standpoint is whether the populations of star systems will survive. A supernova's radiation can wipe out entire planetary populations without having any lasting effect on the physical existence of the planets or stars themselves. So there's no point in even proposing it as a possibility.

 

[rfmcdpei]

Do we? The Romulans we saw were citizens of Ni'Var. Although it does stand to reason that an already interstellar culture would not cease to be interstellar even if it came to center around a different homeworld.

I was thinking of Essof IV, which by the 32nd century was colonized by people who brought Burnham's mother to the Qowat Milat. That implies to me Romulan connections.

The point is that it's a silly hypothetical in the first place. Why would you want it to destroy other stars anyway? What matters from a narrative standpoint is whether the populations of star systems will survive. A supernova's radiation can wipe out entire planetary populations without having any lasting effect on the physical existence of the planets or stars themselves. So there's no point in even proposing it as a possibility.

Agreed. For all we know, the Romulans (or someone else) may be able to resettle devastated worlds sooner or later; hell, there might conceivably be Romulan populations on one world or another that survived making use of shielding. As a solution to the need to evacuate Romulans from the endangered worlds, both would be lacking.

 

[Markonian]

I have to wait until Tuesday.

Does the book establish a name for the Litverse timeline?

 

[Allyn Gibson]

Does the book establish a name for the Litverse timeline?

There's something it's called, yes, for ease of conversation by the characters.

 

[Allyn Gibson]

A supernova could not destroy any other star except a close binary companion within its own system. The planets of nearby systems would be subjected to radiation that could strip their atmospheres or sterilize their biospheres, but the planets themselves and their primary stars would remain physically intact.

I was disappointed to learn that the Core Explosion of Larry Niven's Known Space -- supergiants in the core explode, causing nearby supergiants (ie., a light-year or less away) to also explode, causing a supernova chain reaction in the galactic dore that unleashes a radiation wave front that will sterilize the galaxy -- wasn't something that could happen. There's a Known Space fan theory -- the Tnuctipun Plot -- that posits the Core Explosion isn't natural.

 

[thribs]

Comes out tonight. It’s all very exciting.
What they need to do is to go to the ShatnerVerse and pick up Kirk. The story needs its Superman