i think Tobias would kinda be like Carol...she started her series as a mousy abused wife.. no more likely to survive than he would.
My fan fic would have him meet up with ALicia and the gang with his own band (a motley crew)... and she might not remmeber him from school, but he remembers her and says out loud he wants to pay her back for what his mother did in his life... which takes much of Tobias' gang into a state of unalertness..and Tobias and a partner kill the bad gang. Tobias truly appreciates Madison saving him. He offers to let her group stay with him, or go on their own... so either he can stay on the series or leave but with option to come back.
At this point, he has become a shrewd survivor. Not the strongest, but among the smartest.
But the thing about Fear...now that TWD has jumped AGAIN, this time 5 years (or maybe 4 or even just 3)... no more connections with the main show...so anything they do essentially stays West of the Mississippi and of no consequnece to TWD. Unless they have some remarkable set up planned... this show is kinda treading water too. Tobias would at least an element of interest, at least ofr an episode or two