I think the continuing interest is a very important thing. People tune in to see the novel new thing. I think this new doctor will have a blockbuster first episode. It’s had enough press. It better be bloody amazing though, because all the signs for the last few years have been pointing to another wilderness era. Which might be a good thing...even when borrowing from it, the new series hasn’t hit any of the different kind of highs that can be had in the novels we got last time out.
It’s good news the signs have been pointing that way, because otherwise *if* (the most powerful word in the English language) the show goes on hiatus again, it will be laid at the door of this change, rather than other things happening (bbc budgets, losing the family time slot and audiences under Capaldi, Brexit economy, losing the girl fan base that fancied tennant and smith, losing the boy fan base that fancied rose/Martha/Amy/Clara, losing the middle aged dad contingent that quite fancied Donna, losing anyone who fancied any of the companions, this time including Jack and Bill, losing the US audiences in some states by going too hard on progressiveness for their parochial taste, losing the kids years ago because it was on too late or they just grew out of it with no replacements coming up in the playground, catering too much to fans one week, not enough the next, then going batshit and hoping to appeal to fans so long in the tooth they still thought Capaldi was a young chap...etc etc unlimited rice pudding)
In short, it better grab a new fan base and a big one, and they better not be fickle and actually stick with the show...because yes, as superior says, they have been whittling away at what they started with for a while now. And it doesn’t matter two figs how much the show is loved by the international hipster geek crowd atm, because (a) they are fickle soda and (b) it’s primarily made for the great British public...particularly the young ones, and with a general aim of those that like that sort of thing. That sort of thing being SF and Adventure.
There are plenty of people declaring their great love for the new Doctor after a trailer...let’s hope that’s not a little infatuation and trend, and they stick with it, because there’s also a lot of people declaring its a bad idea...and for some reason, fandoms being what they are, they are probably the ones more likely to keep dragging themselves through watching it if it turns out to be hot pipe people droppings. Which means it’s their voices that will be sounding if the show ends, and they who will either write the history or somehow drag it back (as we...and by we, I mean those who keep engaging with the show even when the general public don’t anymore) sixteen years or so down the line. The current show writers come from a fandom that disliked pertwee, adored Tom, and worked with the Seventh and Eighth doctors as literary constructs.
People will absolutely tune in for episode one. But always ask why? Can the shows team pull a Rose and maintain interest? Or an Eleventh hour and grow the fan Base? Because somehow, that’s where we are. Or Jodie is the new Sylvester, if she’s very lucky, and books based on old TV shows aren’t exactly rocking the world these days. Still...Big Finish can always populate Radio 4 for another ten years. If it does go bosoms skyward, I have a feeling Capaldi will (a) get some blame and (b) end up doing a lot more Who.
I echo this sentiment. This is also what I think is possible either way. I agree with all you have written. There's a lot of factors at play here, before we can declare the new 13th Doctor Who a success or Dead on arrival.