That's a bit more complicated than that as Harmony Gold losing the licence won't change the core of the issue.
You see issue as it stand now is NOT about the ownership or licensing of Macross, but about trademarks.
If we got back in time a bit, around the early 2000 while being essentially AWOL during the 90s, Harmony Gold came back with a vengeance intending to do new and more Robotech into what would eventually lead to Shadow Chronicles. Not an issue per se as it's well within their rights to want to a continuation of Robotech, but what happened is that at the same time Harmony Gold suddenly laid the claim that their had by contracts the right for ALL Macross outside of Japan, including series that didn't exist when they signed the contract and future series that might be produced with the Macross name.
(Note that is extremely possible that Harmony Gold's original contract with Tatsunoko does have a loophole allowing them make this claim as Japanese are renowed for having poorly done contracts drawn in the '80s which poorly protected their interest because they basically never thought of marketing their production outside Japan and this has caused a lot of licensing and rights issue for old animes and mangas)
Needless to say, Big West was NOT pleased by hearing this as they had never made such a deal with Harmony Gold. And of course they didn't, because Harmony Gold only dealt with Tatsunoko.
This basically lead to a lawsuit between Big West and Tatsunoko in Japan over the ownership of Macross. The case was resolved in 2002 when the court established that while Tatsunoko has international licensing rights for Macross, Big West had sole ownership of the Macross IP both within and outside Japan.
So you'd think that would have settled thing once and for all right ?
But it didn't because while Big West and Tatsunoko were at each other in Japan court, Harmony Gold used this time to trademark the name Macross and a few other associated things all over the world, first of all in the United States, but also in Europe, Australia and South-East asia. The idea that they could trademark the name without the IP might seem dodgy, but it's possibly having international licensing came as a good enough justifcation.
So this basically meant that even though Big West had regained sole ownership of Macross... they couldn't exploit it outside of Japan unless dealing with Harmony Gold, which they were adamant NOT to.
Small trivia bit here : ADV came close to releasing Macross Zero in the US having done all the necessary groundwork with the Japanese IP Holders. At the same time they went to Harmony Gold and asked if it was okay if they brought Macross Zero over and Harmony Gold say "Okay". When the japanese heard that ADV went to Harmony Gold to have permission to bring Macross Zero... they cut all communication, no deal was made and Macross Zero in the US didn't happen. THAT is how much Big West is pissed against Harmony Gold.
And this is also why Harmony Gold can't really use any Macross related content in their production : that's no coincidence that Shadown Chronicles got pretty rid of all Macross characters (except Rick Hunter... which was facelitfned beyond recognition not to look like Studio NUE's design), never made any mention of the word "Zentradi" and only mentionned a vague "alien invasion" of Earth as background. They can't use anything Macross related, which is probably why the Robotech live action film has been in development hell with a revolving door or directors, writers and studios for a decade (also preventing HG to makes more animated production in the process), because they essentially have to make a Robotech film without anything from the Macross Saga... even though this is essentially the most popular part of the show !
So basically its been a stand still ever since, with Harmony Gold keeping its trademark and Big West not doing or not being able to do anything about it.
Except... it appears Big West is finally striking back, and over the year they have begun contesting Harmony Gold attempts to renew their Macross trademark in Europe and South-East Asia and began trademarking Macross on their own with some success. So it feels like something it moving from the Japanese front finally.
Now, Harmony Gold losing licensing of Macross wouldn't change much for exploiting Macross unless they also lose the trademark because it blocks everything... however if HG lose the licence, it would probably give a strong cause for Big West to oppose the renewal of the trademark in 2022 and make their own claim. In which case, Macross would finally be free to come in the US.
Note that I feel Harmony Gold handled this whole matter rather poorly by acting like asses and bullies. We had a similar issue in France where AB Productions (which had imported a shit ton of TOEI animes during the '80/'90s) had trademarked both the Dragon Ball/Dragon Ball Z and Saint Seiya IP in France, which lead them into conflict with TOEI Animation which blocked all their latest animes from them. This was eventually settled out of course with AB giving back the trademark while TOEI is giving them a "first look" for their new Saint Seiya and Dragon Ball productions, some which were released by them, some by other distributors and they've had had a fruitful relationship ever since.
Harmony Gold could have gone the same way, try to go in good intellicence with Big West, giving them back the trademarks and making of case that they could hadnle distributing all things Macross related in the west based on their long experiences and so on and so on. Playing their cards well they would have ended being the sole distributor of Macross stuff and make a shit ton of money WHILE at the same time reviving the Robotech IP on their own. But nah, they prefered to be bullies instead. Hopefully this will finially backfire.
So we're not there yet, but things are moving.
-Sergorn
