Who is going to win this election in November?
- Thread starter fonzob1
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Maybe so, but they have to throw their support behind Donald Trump? The man is a walking hazmat contamination zone and mocks the political process and any pretense of a thoughtful discussion of the issues. He's pure, raw egomania in an expensive suit and a man who revels in his own ignorance as well as that of his hardcore supporters who are just looking for a symbol into which to project all of their own frustrations, paranoia and bigotry. I can understand being turned off by another slick-talking, oily candidate who looks and sounds too good to be true...
but TRUMP???
Some share of Trump's voters would vote for a used tissue if it was on the Republican ticket. Others hate Clinton so much they likewise do not care who is running on the other side, they just want to vote against her.
Then you have some number of people who genuinely like Trump and specifically want to support him, regardless of party, regardless of his opponent.
What I can tell you is that our available poll results indicate that the vast, vast majority of Republican voters (80%+) intend to vote for Trump. Most of the rest are voting for Gary Johnson, or so they claim.
So for all the moaning about how Trump doesn't represent the GOP, the fact is that Republicans do almost universally support him. Most of the dissent is coming from GOP leadership which has, frankly, been out of touch with their base for years. There is no broad-based Republican movement against Trump. It simply does not exist. Republican voters are supporting him out of what mainly seems to be simple party identification. He's the Republican candidate, so he's the guy.
Then you have some number of people who genuinely like Trump and specifically want to support him, regardless of party, regardless of his opponent.
What I can tell you is that our available poll results indicate that the vast, vast majority of Republican voters (80%+) intend to vote for Trump. Most of the rest are voting for Gary Johnson, or so they claim.
So for all the moaning about how Trump doesn't represent the GOP, the fact is that Republicans do almost universally support him. Most of the dissent is coming from GOP leadership which has, frankly, been out of touch with their base for years. There is no broad-based Republican movement against Trump. It simply does not exist. Republican voters are supporting him out of what mainly seems to be simple party identification. He's the Republican candidate, so he's the guy.
Worry from some democrats about turnout in Florida.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/hillary-clinton-florida-black-voters-228822
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/hillary-clinton-florida-black-voters-228822
I suspect many will be in for a dissapointment if they expect any candidiate will be able to do some or all of what they say. To quote the Britsh PM Harold MacMillian "Events dear boy, events" something will come up that means they can't do what they said they will. It's also helpeful in the US if the same party that holds the Presidency also holds a majority in Congress.
Yeah. Florida will be close. Florida is always close. But the Hispanic vote will come down hard on Trump this year. If Rubio or Jeb Bush was the nominee I'd be worried but....it's Donald "Build the Wall" Trump.
The thing is, Hispanics should be in the Republicans' wheelhouse. Their strategists always talk about it. Hispanics are religious, hold to traditional family values, work hard, care about the American dream...they "should" be part of the conservative base. But, as always, Republicans have this little problem of alienating them by being racist, having a hardline immigration stance, and portray them as a drain on society.
...Or they nominate a guy who characterizes them as drug dealers and rapists. A winning strategy, for sure!
You know the election is close when politicians start vote shaming.
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/298236-obama-third-party-vote-is-a-vote-for-trump#
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/298236-obama-third-party-vote-is-a-vote-for-trump#
Granted, Donald Trump might represent a threat so severe as to be an exception, but the USA will never break free from a 2 party system as long as people only vote for the least bad viable option, and the UK will continue to lurch to the right if people don't vote for "impractical" candidates like Jeremy Corbyn.
Perhaps it isn't just the immediate outcome these "unethical" voters are concerned with, and perhaps they are looking to the future rather than just their conscience.
Perhaps it isn't just the immediate outcome these "unethical" voters are concerned with, and perhaps they are looking to the future rather than just their conscience.
The US will never break free from a 2 party system, period.
That may sound like an extreme statement, but in essence, the construction of our system only really allows for two parties, with all others doomed to marginal irrelevance. We'd have to change our Constitution and most of our election practices to have a true multiparty system the way various other countries do, and that's such a high bar to clear in this era of political gridlock that it might as well be deemed impossible.
But hey, who knows what the country will be like in 50 or 100 years? Maybe several rounds of Trump-like candidates will light a fire under the asses of enough Americans to pull together Constitutional conventions and really shake up the system. I just have very little faith that that will happen anytime soon (as in within my lifetime).
That may sound like an extreme statement, but in essence, the construction of our system only really allows for two parties, with all others doomed to marginal irrelevance. We'd have to change our Constitution and most of our election practices to have a true multiparty system the way various other countries do, and that's such a high bar to clear in this era of political gridlock that it might as well be deemed impossible.
But hey, who knows what the country will be like in 50 or 100 years? Maybe several rounds of Trump-like candidates will light a fire under the asses of enough Americans to pull together Constitutional conventions and really shake up the system. I just have very little faith that that will happen anytime soon (as in within my lifetime).
I have to admit I hoped that Trump's domination of the Republican primaries would lead to a more significant schism in the Republican party than it has...though I'm unsure how that might have worked out for the Democrats.
Then again, I hoped Obama's election and re-election would cause the Republican party to reexamine themselves, and I see little overall evidence of that...unless moving further to the right counts as a reexamination.
Then again, I hoped Obama's election and re-election would cause the Republican party to reexamine themselves, and I see little overall evidence of that...unless moving further to the right counts as a reexamination.
What we have learned from the Obama era is that one party achieving a popular mandate only increases polarization.
Not going to happen under the first-past-the-post electoral systems used in both countries.
Well in the UK the party which is closest to the centre tends to win the General Election stray to far to the left or right and you might find yourself losing the General Election. And whilst granted Corbyn has the support of a majority of Labour party members they alone are not enough to win enough seats for Labour to win the next General Election esp. with the boundary changes coming and the loss of 50 seats. And why would I even consider voting for Corbyn, remember the leadership election was brought about in part because he had lost the support of many of his own MP's if they don't support him why should I?
But I don't want to derail the thread this is about the US Presidential Election.
Actually they in large rejected John McCain who portrayed Hispanics as a quite positive contribution and had a relatively lenient stance toward illegal immigration (while almost no politicians have hardline restrictive stances toward immigration in general).
A Gore/Lieberman administration would have probably been better but not by a whole lot.
It has, certainly expressed through Trump's run (to his benefit), moved to the left on trade.
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Any Democrats or Independents still thinking of voting for Gov. Cheech Johnson?
I am not voting for anyone named "cheech".
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