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Who is going to win this election in November?

Who will win the general presidential election?

  • Donald Trump

    Votes: 37 22.7%
  • Hillary Clinton

    Votes: 126 77.3%

  • Total voters
    163
  • Poll closed .
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Not open for further replies.
To be fair, that's the best case. It's more likely to be 55/45 or so. Knock a couple percent off either (or both sides) for third-party votes, too. And it might even be closer than that.
 
Barring some unforeseen torpedo that sinks the Clinton campaign between now and November, Trump will get between 40%(low end) - 44% (best case). Factor in between 3%-6% for Johnson and Stein (Bernie protest votes among them). Hillary will get the rest. It won't be anywhere near 60% though. Not even Rockstar 2008 Obama got anywhere near that.

This is what I think prior to any debates. I fully expect Hillary to eat Trump alive during the debates, or let him burn in his own stupidity. If he does especially poorly, he will get closer to 40%. If he does well (somehow), he will get closer to 44%.

For a candidate to get 60% of the popular vote, you'll see MAJOR shifts in the electoral map, like 1984 when it was a sea of red.
 
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The slow creeping release of infomation concerning the Email matter isn't helping her in the least, a complete truthful dump when it first broke might have seen it done by now, instead every new fact just re-energizes it in the press.

Also the mixed messages on her health, if they knew the 9/11 problem was pneumonia, why first say it was owing to overheating?
 
Has she lied about her illness? She is 69 years old. One can have walking pneumonia and become overheated and exhausted because your body is fighting an infection. I don't think her fainting episode is some mysterious PROOF that what she's REALLY suffering from is _________! (fill in the blank)

Until definitive proof comes, I will subscribe to Occam's Razor in this situation.

And even if she IS ill, so was FDR. From 1943 to 1945 the guy had one foot in the grave. He regularly had BP in the 190/110 range. He had heart failure in a time when there were no drugs to treat heart failure. Yet he still oversaw a war effort and made trips around the world, and considering his penchant for playing it close to the vest (to Harry Truman's detriment), he took more on himself and kept his own counsel far more than ANY modern president would, AND he campaigned in 1944 for reelection despite his grave health. And this was 70 years ago. Yes, he died in office, but the point is an infirm president CAN effectively lead the country and shape the world. He didn't get any PROPER medical care until 1944 either. Hillary has dedicated doctors regularly examining her.

Eisenhower had a heart attack and at least one stroke. In the 1950's, no less. Nixon ran the country for two months in 1956. We survived as a nation. JFK was on a cocktail of quackery and drugs for chronic pain. He was still an effective leader, and we survived as a nation. Russia didn't nuke us.

So I am not worried about Hillary's health. The conservatives are because that's literally the only thing they can bank on. Scaremongering over her health.

I agree that candidates running for office should be open about their health. And I hope that Hillary comes out and shuts down the rumor mill. If she doesn't, or if there isn't a more thorough report released by her doctor, THEN I will start to wonder about what they may be hiding. But I will still vote for her. Because an infirm Hillary is still 10,000 times better than Donald fucking Trump.

If Donald Trump thinks that "I'm a more healthy 70 year old than Crooked Hillary" qualifies him to be president, he's clueless as always.

Yeah, the email stuff pisses me off, but not because it's some sort of bombshell. It's just little niggling shit that doesn't go away that gives the Republicans little openings to dig at and sensationalize. No one is going to read between the lines about HOW these documents were classified after the fact, improperly labeled, or whatever. That's not the narrative that will prevail. But yes, it irritates me that she's let it become an issue when she should've shut it down.

She's been coasting when she should've been more proactive and gotten out in front of things.
 
Has she lied about her illness? She is 69 years old. One can have walking pneumonia and become overheated and exhausted because your body is fighting an infection. I don't think her fainting episode is some mysterious PROOF that what she's REALLY suffering from is _________! (fill in the blank)

Until definitive proof comes, I will subscribe to Occam's Razor in this situation.

And even if she IS ill, so was FDR. From 1943 to 1945 the guy had one foot in the grave. He regularly had BP in the 190/110 range. He had heart failure in a time when there were no drugs to treat heart failure. Yet he still oversaw a war effort and made trips around the world, and considering his penchant for playing it close to the vest (to Harry Truman's detriment), he took more on himself and kept his own counsel far more than ANY modern president would, AND he campaigned in 1944 for reelection despite his grave health. And this was 70 years ago. Yes, he died in office, but the point is an infirm president CAN effectively lead the country and shape the world. He didn't get any PROPER medical care until 1944 either. Hillary has dedicated doctors regularly examining her.

Eisenhower had a heart attack and at least one stroke. In the 1950's, no less. Nixon ran the country for two months in 1956. We survived as a nation. JFK was on a cocktail of quackery and drugs for chronic pain. He was still an effective leader, and we survived as a nation. Russia didn't nuke us.

So I am not worried about Hillary's health. The conservatives are because that's literally the only thing they can bank on. Scaremongering over her health.

I agree that candidates running for office should be open about their health. And I hope that Hillary comes out and shuts down the rumor mill. If she doesn't, or if there isn't a more thorough report released by her doctor, THEN I will start to wonder about what they may be hiding. But I will still vote for her. Because an infirm Hillary is still 10,000 times better than Donald fucking Trump.

If Donald Trump thinks that "I'm a more healthy 70 year old than Crooked Hillary" qualifies him to be president, he's clueless as always.

Yeah, the email stuff pisses me off, but not because it's some sort of bombshell. It's just little niggling shit that doesn't go away that gives the Republicans little openings to dig at and sensationalize. No one is going to read between the lines about HOW these documents were classified after the fact, improperly labeled, or whatever. That's not the narrative that will prevail. But yes, it irritates me that she's let it become an issue when she should've shut it down.

She's been coasting when she should've been more proactive and gotten out in front of things.
You don't have to be so defensive. I'll either vote for her or not at all. Let's not pretend that just because she's the best choice, that makes her a good choice.
 
Hi guys, I'm Dr. Webb, MD, and since we're all apparently bulletin board certified medical professionals now, I'd like to talk to you about my concerns about candidate Donald Trump's declining mental faculties, which I think make him unfit to hold office. He exhibits all the classical signs of dementia:

MEMORY LOSS THAT DISRUPTS DAILY LIFE

I can't remember saying I had the world's greatest memory, Trump tells lawyers as he is quizzed over his controversial university

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CHALLENGES IN PLANNING OR SOLVING PROBLEMS

It’s almost like Donald Trump’s secret plan to defeat ISIS never actually existed

Donald Trump has long assured us that he has a very real — and very good — plan to defeat the Islamic State. But he couldn't share the details of it.

"I don’t want the enemy to know what I’m doing," Trump told Fox News in May 2015, the month before launching his presidential campaign. "Unfortunately, I’ll probably have to tell at some point, but there is a method of defeating them quickly and effectively and having total victory.”

He added: “All I can tell you it is a foolproof way of winning, and I’m not talking about what some people would say, but it is a foolproof way of winning the war with ISIS."

Then, in a June 2015 meeting with the Des Moines Register editorial board, he offered a different reason for keeping the plan under wraps — that his opponents would steal it. "The problem with politics is if I tell you right now, everyone else is going to say, 'Wow, what a great idea.' You're going to have 10 candidates go and use it, and they're going to forget where it came from, which is me. But no, I have an absolute way of defeating ISIS."

He similarly cited the need for keeping his plan secret in an April foreign policy speech: "I have a simple message for [ISIS]: Their days are numbered. I won’t tell them where and I won’t tell them how. ... We must as a nation be more unpredictable. We are totally predictable. We tell everything. We’re sending troops; we tell them. We’re sending something else; we have a news conference. We have to be unpredictable. And we have to be unpredictable starting now. But they’re going to be gone. ISIS will be gone if I’m elected president. And they’ll be gone quickly."
Well, now we know what Trump's "foolproof" and "absolute" plan for defeating ISIS is — to ask the generals to come up with a plan, quickly. That's what he said he would do during a speech Tuesday. "They'll have 30 days to submit to the Oval Office a plan for soundly and quickly defeating ISIS," he told supporters in Greenville, N.C.

These are the generals, mind you, who Trump has said don't understand ISIS like he does. "I know more about ISIS than the generals do," he said in a rambling Iowa speech in November. "Believe me."


DIFFICULTY COMPLETING FAMILIAR TASKS AT HOME, AT WORK OR AT LEISURE

Donald Trump Planning To Just Let Mike Pence Run The Country, Apparently

But according to the Kasich adviser, Donald Jr. wanted to make him an offer nonetheless: Did he have any interest in being the most powerful vice president in history?

When Kasich’s adviser asked how this would be the case, Donald Jr. explained that his father’s vice president would be in charge of domestic and foreign policy.


USA TODAY exclusive: Hundreds allege Donald Trump doesn’t pay his bills

Bankruptcy No. 1: The Trump Taj Mahal, 1991

Trump’s first bankruptcy may have hit the businessman, personally, the hardest, according to news reports.

He funded the construction of the $1 billion Trump Taj Mahal casino in Atlantic City, N.J., which opened in 1990, primarily with junk bonds at a whopping 14 percent interest. A year later, the casino was nearly $3 billion in debt, while Trump had racked up nearly $900 million in personal liabilities. So Trump decided to file for Chapter 11 reorganization, according to the New York Times.

As a result, Trump gave up half his personal stake in the casino and sold his yacht and airline, according to the Washington Post.

Bankruptcy No. 2: Trump Castle, 1992

Within a year of his first Chapter 11 filing, Trump found himself in bankruptcy court again for Trump Castle, which opened in 1985. It was his "weakest gambling hall," according to the Philadelphia Inquirer, and ironically faced competition from Trump Taj Mahal. In March 1992, the Castle filed a prepackaged bankruptcy plan, and Trump gave up his 50 percent share in the casino for lower interest rates on $338 million worth of bonds.

Bankruptcy No. 3: Trump Plaza and Casino, 1992

The Trump Plaza Hotel and Casino in Atlantic City, which opened in 1984, declared bankruptcy at the same time as the Castle. A $210 million joint project of Trump’s and Harrah’s, the casino had racked up $250 million in debt by 1992, after a staggering 80 percent decline in cash flow. So Trump Plaza filed for prepackaged bankruptcy that spring as well.

Bankruptcy No. 4: Plaza Hotel, 1992

Later that year, Trump filed bankruptcy on another Plaza, this one in New York. Trump purchased the Plaza Hotel in Midtown Manhattan for $390 million in 1988, but it accumulated more than $550 million in debt by 1992. In December 1992, Trump relinquished a 49 percent stake in the Plaza to a total of six lenders, according to ABC News. Trump remained the hotel’s CEO, but it was merely a gesture; he didn’t earn a salary and had no say in the hotel’s day-to-day operations, according to the New York Times.

Bankruptcy No. 5: Trump Hotels and Casinos Resorts, 2004

Trump Hotels and Casinos Resorts filed for bankruptcy again in 2004 when his casinos -- including the Trump Taj Mahal, Trump Marina and Trump Plaza casinos in Atlantic City, and a riverboat casino in Indiana -- had accrued an estimated $1.8 billion in debt, according to the Associated Press. Trump agreed to reduce his share in the company from 47 percent to 27 percent in a restructuring plan, but he was still the company’s largest single shareholder and remained in charge of its operations. Trump told the Associated Press at the time that the company represented less than 1 percent of his net worth.

Bankruptcy No. 6: Trump Entertainment Resorts, 2009

Trump Entertainment Resorts -- formerly Trump Hotels and Casinos Resorts -- was hit hard by the 2008 economic recession and missed a $53.1 million bond interest payment in December 2008, according to ABC News. It declared Chapter 11 in February 2009. After debating with the company’s board of directors, Trump resigned as the company’s chairman and had his corporate stake in the company reduced to 10 percent. The company continued to use Trump’s name in licensing.

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...nald-trumps-companies-have-declared-bankrupt/

CONFUSION WITH TIME OR PLACE

Trump says Putin is 'not going to go into Ukraine,' despite Crimea

Donald Trump said Sunday that Russian President Vladimir Putin won't make a military move into Ukraine -- even though Putin already has done just that, seizing the country's Crimean Peninsula.

"He's not going into Ukraine, OK, just so you understand. He's not going to go into Ukraine, all right? You can mark it down. You can put it down. You can take it anywhere you want," Trump said in an interview on Sunday with ABC's George Stephanopoulos on "This Week."

"Well, he's already there, isn't he?" Stephanopoulos responded, in a reference to Crimea, which Putin took from Ukraine in early 2014.


Donald Trump's Pants on Fire claim that Barack Obama 'founded' ISIS, Hillary Clinton was 'cofounder'

For starters, the terrorist group’s roots pre-date Obama’s presidency and Clinton’s role as secretary of state.

ISIS has used several names since 2004, when long-time Sunni extremist Abu Mus‘ab al-Zarqawi established al-Qaida in Iraq (AQI), also known as the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) and more recently the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), according to the National Counterterrorism Center.

After he was killed in a 2006 U.S. airstrike, the group became the Islamic State of Iraq. In 2013, the group was referred to as the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham and then just the Islamic State in 2014.

The most prominent leader of the group we now call ISIS has been Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who became the leader in 2010.


Joe Paterno
He made a further gaffe last month while campaigning in Pittsburgh, after asking how legendary Penn State University football coach Joe Paterno - who has been dead for four years - was doing.

'How's Joe Paterno? Are we going to bring that back?' Trump asked, simultaneously stunning and confusing the crowd.

'Right? How bout that whole – How bout that whole deal? And we do love Penn State,' he added.


9/11 or 7/11?
While on the campaign trail in Buffalo, New York, in April, he said: 'It's very close to my heart because I was down there, and I watched our police and our firemen down at 7/11, down at the World Trade Center right after it came down, and I saw the greatest people I've ever seen in action.'

NEW PROBLEMS WITH WORDS IN SPEAKING OR WRITING

Donald Trump Talks Like a Third-Grader

Hilarious: Study Says Trump Has The Grammar Of A Fifth Grader

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The 'Department of Environmental'
During a town hall with Fox News in April, he said he would get rid of the 'Department of Environmental' because of its effect on business.

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MISPLACING THINGS AND LOSING THE ABILITY TO RETRACE STEPS

Trump promised millions to charity. We found less than $10,000 over 7 years.

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DECREASED OR POOR JUDGMENT

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WITHDRAWAL FROM WORK OR SOCIAL ACTIVITIES AND MORE TIME SPENT WATCHING TELEVISION

While most candidates spend their days on the road in Iowa or New Hampshire, Trump has spent the bulk of his campaign calling in to television shows from his headquarters at Trump Tower in Manhattan. After claiming multiple times that no one is more militaristic thaN he, Trump was asked where he gets his military information from. He claimed “I watch the shows.”'.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...trumps-most-frequent-campaign-stop-his-house/

CHANGES IN MOOD AND PERSONALITY

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Some types of dementia cause particular symptoms:
- People who have dementia with Lewy bodies often have highly detailed visual hallucinations.
(See Muslim-Americans celebrating 9/11 in Jersey City comment above. That never happened, but he insists he saw it.)

- The first symptoms of frontotemporal dementia may be personality changes or unusual behavior. People with this condition may not express any caring for others, or they may say rude things, or make sexually explicit comments.
http://www.marieclaire.co.uk/blogs/550112/donald-trump-quotes.html

Well, at least we know from Trump's totally reputable doctor that he tests positive for everything and will be the healthiest individual to ever be elected to the Presidency:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jenni...cerning-trumps-medical-letter_b_11565838.html
 
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Wow! I'm exhausted from that. :lol: It was actually kind of therapeutic, though, listening to someone rattle off all the things that have been disturbing me (plus a few I didn't know about or thought were gratuitous or silly). Too bad the people who really need to listen probably won't get past the first 30 seconds.
 
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