DOMESTIC
I've been following the revenue since the movie's release on July 22nd and last week was the first week where I saw attendance drops (percentage of patrons compared to the previous day or week) that were actually pretty good. I was hesitant at first when the monday drop was low to get too excited but then the Tuesday bumped up pretty good (discount Tuesdays) and the rest of the week remained strong (low drops). We are now through our 4th weekend so the domestic run is more or less finished. Based on the current numbers, I'd say that $157 million is a lock. If the holds stay as good as they were last week then we are looking closer to or maybe even pushing past $160 million. Unfortunately, it's a case of too little, too late to have any major effect on the final box office numbers but it does suggest some things.
1)
Paramount picked a terrible release date.
Star Trek Beyond was destined to fall from Star Trek Into Darkness, most people had accepted that. However the amount it dropped was truly disappointing. I think this movie would have been a $185-200 million earner if not for its release date. STB had to deal with two harsh weekend drops on its 2nd and 3rd weekends. In the second weekend it faced the release of Jason Bourne, not a record setting blockbuster demolishing everything in its path but a strong summer tentpole with the EXACT same audience demographic that Star Trek has (older males). In its 3rd weekend STB (and Jason Bourne) found itself up against the type of blockbuster I previously mentioned in Suicide Squad. Both STB and JB have followed almost the exact same perfomance at the theaters for the first 10 days (almost mirror images). However, since JB only dealt with huge competition on its 2nd weekend it will likely end up going from around $5 million behind STB in its first 10 days of release to finishing $5-10 million ahead when all is said and done. You can argue that Universal didn't do Jason Bourne any favors by moving it in front of Suicide Squad but it is still better than Paramounts idiotic date selection.
For those who don't know. Star Trek Beyond was originally scheduled to be released on July 8th with Jason Bourne originally scheduled on July 15th but moved to July 29th. So at the time Star Trek was only competing against one movie with a similar audience (The Legend of Tarzan) in its second week, a same weekend release in The Secret Life of Pets which is an animated film and its second weekend would be up against Ghostbusters - a summer tentpole but one that was an entirely different genre (Special effects comedy) and targeted a much larger female audience. If Star Trek had remained in its original slot it would have had a more favorible slate to compete against. And one can argue that putting Star Trek in the summer in itself wasn't all that well thought out since summers are more favorable for movies that draw in a larger young audience that is out of school during that time. I do think that if STB had kept its original date that it would be much closer to a $200 million performer instead of a $160 million performer. At the very least it wouldn't have endured getting it's legs cut out from under it on two consecutive weekends which would have increased its overall multiplier.
2)
Marketing was subpar.
Anyone who things Paramount did a good job of marketing this movie must watch a lot of Sony films . . . because that's about the only studio I can think of that makes Paramounts marketing department look top notch (Hey, wasn't Ghostbusters Sony?). The overall haphazard approach, the reliance on big premiere openings in certain markets, comic con events, a largely panned teaser trailer and a long wait until an improved theatrical trailer made an appearance, etc, gives me the impression that Paramount felt like a franchise like Star Trek could just sell itself. Many people wondered why there was no connection to Star Trek's 50th Anniverery mentioned in any of the marketing and I too am puzzled. There seemed to be no effort to capitalize on the nostalgia offered by the simple year of this release. I don't think the teaser trailer can ever be overlooked. There are great trailers and there are terrible trailers. STB was . . . ehhhh . . . it was okay I guess. It was mostly just . . . . forgetable. And in the arena of marketing you are trying to spark interest in a product. So if that's the goal then, it failed. Let's put this in perspective.
Star Trek Beyond Teaser Trailer (aka: Captain Kirk finds a motorbike!)
Rogue One Teaser Trailer (aka: What will you become?)
Now which one do you think actually leaves people wanting more?
I strongly believe things could have been done much better but either way, domestic is done. It's all over but the crying. So now let us look at . . .
INTERNATIONAL
I've seen some posters laughably state that Star Trek Beyond won't make $300 million Worldwide because of its lower domestic take and the results of the first round of foreign countries. These predictions are laughable of course. It's like predicting the winner of an NFL division after the first few games and not taking the remaining schedule into account. $315 million is locked. I'd say a conservative guess will be somewhere in the $340-360 million range. My personal belief is that it will go $375+ million. This is STILL quite a drop from STID, there is no getting around that. But it's not the incredible flop that some are trying to make it out to be. Major disappointment - yes. Box office flop - no.
Paramount did arrange the foreign release schedule to take other releases and events into account. There were several countries that it decided Star Trek could simply go up against the big boys and do well. Australia, Germany and the UK have always been countries that have been supportive of the franchise so Paramount decided to release closer to the North American date there. And in doing so we have learned that Star Trek still has a niche audience as it subsequently got smashed in these territories. The numbers are grim. Essentially, Star Trek Beyond sold about a 3rd fewer tickets. Combine that with the much less favorable exchange rates and the revenue is down closer to 50%. STB has lost about $10-12 million in those three countries alone just due to currency fluctuations. This has only exacerbated the problem. By the way, Jason Bourne has outperformed STB considerably in the UK and Australia in its opening weekends, not to mention cutting STBs lets in the second weeks.
Still, the remaining countries should be a bit less cluttered for STB. Latin America will not be released until after the Olympics and after most of the big summer movies were released. China is on the same schedule as most of Latin America. Belgium, France, Spain and South Korea get their openings this week. Japan won't see STB until October (the last release). Over the next ,month we will see how STB does overall and if Paramount did a better job selecting favorable release dates in those countries than they did at home and in 3 historically pro-Star Trek countries (AU, UK, GER).
Belgium 17 AUG 16
Czech Republic 18 AUG 16
France 17 AUG 16
Norway 19 AUG 16
Portugal 25 AUG 16
Spain 19 AUG 16
Turkey 26 AUG 16
South Korea 18 AUG 16
South Africa 19 AUG 16
Venezuela 26 AUG 16
Argentina 01 SEP 16
Brazil 01 SEP 16
Chile 01 SEP 16
Colombia 01 SEP 16
Panama 01 SEP 16
Peru 01 SEP 16
Mexico 02 SEP 16
China 02 SEP 16
