It's early yet.
The Domestic Box Office run is ending, International is kicking in.
- Thread starter KGator
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The math is that Beyond likely needs to make a total of $350 million to be within breaking even territory.
So according to the site below, as of this writing Star Trek Beyond has made:
Worldwide: $285,393,322 - So it hasn't even broken even yet.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=startrek2016.htm
It will.
It'll make a profit when DVD/BR and digital downloads are then into account, as well as TV deals.
Whether it'll make enough of a profit to justify another...
Whether it'll make enough of a profit to justify another...
I would say that's already happened.
Massive Disappointment 
30m opening in China is very weak, puts it just 7% ahead of STID, meaning that it'll likely top out at around $70 million there. I was hoping that it'd take $100 million. Hoping for a miracle now in the remaining few markets, as Beyond opens in Argentina, Japan and Mexico next week. I was convinced that Beyond was still gonna make $400 million. As it is, it'll be lucky to scrape $350 million, giving it a very average 2X multiplier for the theatrical run.
STID = 2.46 X budget
ST09= 2.75 X budget
STNEM= 1.1X budget
STINS= 1.67X budget
STFC= 3.26X budget
STGEN= 3.16X budget
On the positive side, at least we're not talking faliure like we can see with STNEM and INS. Note: the figures above just divide the box office return with the cost to make using the numbers here:
http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/franchise/Star-Trek#tab=summary
ST09, STID and STFC all had epic sales on DVD and blu-ray. ST09 is the stand out story here, it's the 10th best selling blu-ray of all time:
http://www.the-numbers.com/alltime-bluray-sales-chart
30m opening in China is very weak, puts it just 7% ahead of STID, meaning that it'll likely top out at around $70 million there. I was hoping that it'd take $100 million. Hoping for a miracle now in the remaining few markets, as Beyond opens in Argentina, Japan and Mexico next week. I was convinced that Beyond was still gonna make $400 million. As it is, it'll be lucky to scrape $350 million, giving it a very average 2X multiplier for the theatrical run.
STID = 2.46 X budget
ST09= 2.75 X budget
STNEM= 1.1X budget
STINS= 1.67X budget
STFC= 3.26X budget
STGEN= 3.16X budget
On the positive side, at least we're not talking faliure like we can see with STNEM and INS. Note: the figures above just divide the box office return with the cost to make using the numbers here:
http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/franchise/Star-Trek#tab=summary
ST09, STID and STFC all had epic sales on DVD and blu-ray. ST09 is the stand out story here, it's the 10th best selling blu-ray of all time:
http://www.the-numbers.com/alltime-bluray-sales-chart
Variety reports $31.3 million actuals in China. Which is actually almost a 20% improvement over STID($25,870,000). They were discussing how big Bourne's opening was last week at $23 million, so this is a great opening for Trek.
“Star Trek Beyond” has launched impressively in China in first place with a $31.3 million opening weekend at 6,526 locations, seven weeks after its U.S. debut.
The Chinese result is 107% above 2013’s “Star Trek Into Darkness” and 30% above “Jason Bourne.” “Star Trek Beyond” grossed $37 million this weekend from 40 markets including a $1.7 million opening in Brazil and and $1.4 million in Venezuela, pushing its international total to $131.1 million.
“Star Trek Beyond” handily led the international box office for the weekend, which did not see any other major openings.
China is already the top international market for “Star Trek Beyond,” followed by the U.K. with $20 million and Germany with $15 million. Upcoming releases include Argentina and Mexico next weekend and Japan on Oct. 21.
The Paramount Pictures-Skydance production received financial backing from China-based Alibaba Pictures Group and Huahua Media, which has been promoting “Star Trek Beyond” through “Happy Camp,” one of China’s top rating TV variety shows, backed by Hunan Broadcasting.
Huahua also rounded up close to 100 other local businesses as partners on the movie. Notable among these was China International Broadcasting Network, giving it access to apps, ISPs and streaming services.
“Star Trek Beyond” has now grossed $285 million worldwide, including $154 million in the U.S. The numbers have lagged “Star Trek Into Darkness,” which took in $466 million worldwide, including $232 million in the U.S. and $234 million internationally — the first time that the foreign total topped the domestic.
http://variety.com/2016/film/news/box-office-star-trek-beyond-china-1201852068/
“Star Trek Beyond” has launched impressively in China in first place with a $31.3 million opening weekend at 6,526 locations, seven weeks after its U.S. debut.
The Chinese result is 107% above 2013’s “Star Trek Into Darkness” and 30% above “Jason Bourne.” “Star Trek Beyond” grossed $37 million this weekend from 40 markets including a $1.7 million opening in Brazil and and $1.4 million in Venezuela, pushing its international total to $131.1 million.
“Star Trek Beyond” handily led the international box office for the weekend, which did not see any other major openings.
China is already the top international market for “Star Trek Beyond,” followed by the U.K. with $20 million and Germany with $15 million. Upcoming releases include Argentina and Mexico next weekend and Japan on Oct. 21.
The Paramount Pictures-Skydance production received financial backing from China-based Alibaba Pictures Group and Huahua Media, which has been promoting “Star Trek Beyond” through “Happy Camp,” one of China’s top rating TV variety shows, backed by Hunan Broadcasting.
Huahua also rounded up close to 100 other local businesses as partners on the movie. Notable among these was China International Broadcasting Network, giving it access to apps, ISPs and streaming services.
“Star Trek Beyond” has now grossed $285 million worldwide, including $154 million in the U.S. The numbers have lagged “Star Trek Into Darkness,” which took in $466 million worldwide, including $232 million in the U.S. and $234 million internationally — the first time that the foreign total topped the domestic.
http://variety.com/2016/film/news/box-office-star-trek-beyond-china-1201852068/
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Read my post earlier about Beyond's box office performance and about secondary revenue. Beyond will easily make a profit. My base amount for that was $300 million..but it looks as if $370-380 million will be the likely final total, as CFI projects a $105 million revenue in China.
The Domestic Box Office run is ending, International is kicking in.
RAMA
Massive Disappointment
30m opening in China is very weak, puts it just 7% ahead of STID, meaning that it'll likely top out at around $70 million there. I was hoping that it'd take $100 million. Hoping for a miracle now in the remaining few markets, as Beyond opens in Argentina, Japan and Mexico next week. I was convinced that Beyond was still gonna make $400 million. As it is, it'll be lucky to scrape $350 million, giving it a very average 2X multiplier for the theatrical run.
STID = 2.46 X budget
ST09= 2.75 X budget
STNEM= 1.1X budget
STINS= 1.67X budget
STFC= 3.26X budget
STGEN= 3.16X budget
On the positive side, at least we're not talking faliure like we can see with STNEM and INS. Note: the figures above just divide the box office return with the cost to make using the numbers here:
http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/franchise/Star-Trek#tab=summary
If we use the numbers from BoxOfficeMojo (as most people here use) it's even worse.
The 4 TNG movies combined had a budget of $198 million and worldwide box office of $443 million. So they brought back 2.237 times their budget! And they are considered box office failures! Beyond so far has only brought back 1.54 times it's budget! In order to be just as successful as the 4 TNG movies (and not more) Beyond needs a worldwide box office of $414 million! Not gonna happen. Again, if we use BoxOfficeMojo we have:
4TNG= 2.24 X budget
ST09= 2.56 X budget
STID= 2.45 X budget
STBEY= 1.54 X budget
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchises/chart/?id=startrek.htm
Massive Disappointment
30m opening in China is very weak, puts it just 7% ahead of STID, meaning that it'll likely top out at around $70 million there. I was hoping that it'd take $100 million. Hoping for a miracle now in the remaining few markets, as Beyond opens in Argentina, Japan and Mexico next week. I was convinced that Beyond was still gonna make $400 million. As it is, it'll be lucky to scrape $350 million, giving it a very average 2X multiplier for the theatrical run.
STID = 2.46 X budget
ST09= 2.75 X budget
STNEM= 1.1X budget
STINS= 1.67X budget
STFC= 3.26X budget
STGEN= 3.16X budget
On the positive side, at least we're not talking faliure like we can see with STNEM and INS. Note: the figures above just divide the box office return with the cost to make using the numbers here:
http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/franchise/Star-Trek#tab=summary
ST09, STID and STFC all had epic sales on DVD and blu-ray. ST09 is the stand out story here, it's the 10th best selling blu-ray of all time:
http://www.the-numbers.com/alltime-bluray-sales-chart
Your numbers are a bit off.
Box office mojo gives Star Trek Insurrection a more precise (and humble) budget of 58 mio., and box office of 112.
That's about ~1,95x it's original budget for Insurrection.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=startrek9.htm
Star Trek Beyond will not achieve that. It will end up somwhere 330 - 350 mio. (if we are REALLY lucky), on a budget of 185 mio., giving it a multiplier between 1,8 - 1,9.
The problem is: CBS owns Star Trek, Paramount only the right to produce movies. Meaning from DVD-sales to merchandise, the movie guys have to give a share to the tv-guys with the license. When all is said and done, the movie will probably breake even and maybe even make a bit of a profit (in the very, very long run). A Star Trek 4 at this point is very likely after a major re-tooling, although not guaranteed.
In the end, adjusted for inflation and all, Beyond will end up a bit below Insurrection in terms of success. That's a big disapointment, but not a bomb like Nemesis was.
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Adjusted for inflation, Star Trek Beyond is now on place 10 out of 13 for all Star Trek movies, but might move up a bit to place 9, or maybe even place 8.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchises/chart/?id=startrek.htm
That's only domestic box office though, the new movies make a big share of their profit worldwide (an advancement the older Trek movies didn't have). The bigger problem is that each of the new movies constantly looses box office in every territory compared to the respective previous movie, and the only thing keeping them afloat is the constant addition of new market territories (bigger openings in many countries for Into Darkness, bigger opening in China for Beyond), that weren't accessible/profitable before, but coming at the prize of having to give a bigger share of the profit to local distributers, and seeking co-ownership with chinese production companies and adhering to chinese censorship laws and at least lip-service promotion of their ideology.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchises/chart/?id=startrek.htm
That's only domestic box office though, the new movies make a big share of their profit worldwide (an advancement the older Trek movies didn't have). The bigger problem is that each of the new movies constantly looses box office in every territory compared to the respective previous movie, and the only thing keeping them afloat is the constant addition of new market territories (bigger openings in many countries for Into Darkness, bigger opening in China for Beyond), that weren't accessible/profitable before, but coming at the prize of having to give a bigger share of the profit to local distributers, and seeking co-ownership with chinese production companies and adhering to chinese censorship laws and at least lip-service promotion of their ideology.
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In other words, if we're lucky, Beyond will be as successful as Insurrection, which (according to some) is considered a failure.
With the exception of Nemesis I wouldn't consider any other TNG-movie an outright failure. They sometimes didn't match expectations, and I wasn't the biggest fan of the direction they were taking the franchise into. But 3 out of 4 broke even, and then made some.
So yes, Beyond will end up below Insurrection in terms of success. That's a disappointment. Big time. But definitely not a bomb.
So yes, Beyond will end up below Insurrection in terms of success. That's a disappointment. Big time. But definitely not a bomb.
If you want to look at multipliers, which isn't a good way to measure profit, then Beyond should exceed Insurrection assuming China stays strong.
The adjusted figures are great but without adjusted international figures they are now irrelevant. Into Darkness, arguably the most profitable Trek film did most of it's box office outside the US.
There shouldn't be any reason why Beyond won't hit $350m which is hopefully enough for a sequel.
The adjusted figures are great but without adjusted international figures they are now irrelevant. Into Darkness, arguably the most profitable Trek film did most of it's box office outside the US.
There shouldn't be any reason why Beyond won't hit $350m which is hopefully enough for a sequel.
This also depends on China, Latin America, Mexico, Brazil, Japan. Box office is $285 mi without these markets.
I´m not an expert, but in simple mathematical calculation, if only China hit $65, box office Worldwide: $350.
Is 285 million without the first China weekend?
Well, in Box Office Mojo, I don´t see China, nor Brazil.
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