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2016 Has Been A Tough Year For Studio Movies

I'm not quite following your line of thought there. Do you mean not as many mid budget sci fi films are good vs other genres? Or not as many mid budget sci fi films should be made, that they do need the $250 mil budgets?
Generally speaking genre movies need more money to look good than a small romantic comedy or an indie film about convenience store clerks or what have you. So there are less of them in the scifi genre and fewer that don't need to make huge box office to cover their costs.

There are a few noticeable ones every year though. I wanted to point out a few too.:)
 
Or maybe people are only going to four movies a year because the $250 million dollar movies have driven ticket prices up (and killed 2D screenings, making the costs of these Big budget films even higher as you need 3D Imax tickets) to record highs and people can't afford to go to more films than that so they pick and choose which ones are worth seeing in cinema and which are being left for Netflix.
Studios don't set ticket prices or schedule 3D vice 2D showings; theaters do. And I'm fairly sure theaters don't pay more to screen bigger-budgeted movies.

A studio might not feel the need to spend $150 mil marketing a movie if the movie itself only cost $50 mil to make. You definitely don't need near as many people to see it to turn a profit, so it would make sense that the marketing costs would also drop proportionally.
Not necessarily. Unless you're successfully hitting a particular niche, there's a baseline of spending needed to break through the white noise of advertising in general, and generate basic awareness. At a certain point it becomes more proportional, yes, but only above said baseline, and that baseline is higher than you might think.

Drop the cost of the movie, drop the proportional cost of marketing, the studios risk shrinks considerably, filmmakers have more freedom to make original and unique films, audiences don't get sequel/reboot fatigue, add back in 2D screenings (you can see 6 movies now for the same cost of the previous 4 right there) and suddenly people can afford to see more films.
Maybe, but just because they could afford to doesn't mean they would. Once a habit of watching movies on big HD screens at home is made, there's no guarantee whatsoever it could be easily broken. And if the studios make more movies for the same production total as with one big movie, as you recommend, they haven't shrunk their risk at all. In short: you really don't seem to know what you're talking about here.

Instead of chasing the high risk, high return big budget big profit remakes / sequels why not try lower risk / lower profit for awhile?
Studio do this all the time; it's called horror movies, and they tend to make much more profit than other genres due to lower costs. And they also release a number of lower-budgeted movies per year, especially around awards time. But if the theaters refuse to screen them, and instead play that week's bigger-budgeted movies on most of their screens, there's not a whole lot the studios can do about that. And then there's the old weapons disarmament problem: whoever disarms first, without assurances other parties will do the same, makes themselves vulnerable. (And you can save yourself the bother of bringing up outliers like Deadpool, because if I wanted and had time to, I could cite dozens of similarly modestly-budget movies that didn't recoup their costs.)

I'm not saying studio executives are geniuses, necessarily. But I'd also caution against assuming they're morons who don't know what they're doing, as you seem to be doing, with posts riddled with basic errors about the business and logical fallacies. Chances are, the professionals know a bit more about all this than you or I.
 
Generally speaking genre movies need more money to look good than a small romantic comedy or an indie film about convenience store clerks or what have you. So there are less of them in the scifi genre and fewer that don't need to make huge box office to cover their costs.

There are a few noticeable ones every year though. I wanted to point out a few too.:)


I agree, some sci fi films do require larger budgets than others - but you can also make critically loved sci fi films for $15k, like Primer. We still should have our Star Wars and Avengers team ups costing $250 mil, because thats what those stories are. But we don't need every film to be like that. There should be a distribution for film budgets, like everything else in the film. Sci fi may skew higher than Rom Com's, maybe a mid budget sci fi is $80 mil instead of $50.

Even saying that, adjusted for inflation, the low/mid budget studio made Serenity, a ship based CGI filled sci fi action adventure with fleet battles from ten years ago would still only cost $51 mil in today's dollars.
 
True, it's easier today because of technology. Look at Killzone. That movie wouldn't have been convincing 5-8 years ago.

I agree, some sci fi films do require larger budgets than others - but you can also make critically loved sci fi films for $15k, like Primer. We still should have our Star Wars and Avengers team ups costing $250 mil, because thats what those stories are. But we don't need every film to be like that. There should be a distribution for film budgets, like everything else in the film. Sci fi may skew higher than Rom Com's, maybe a mid budget sci fi is $80 mil instead of $50.

Even saying that, adjusted for inflation, the low/mid budget studio made Serenity, a ship based CGI filled sci fi action adventure with fleet battles from ten years ago would still only cost $51 mil in today's dollars.
 
Studios don't set ticket prices or schedule 3D vice 2D showings; theaters do. And I'm fairly sure theaters don't pay more to screen bigger-budgeted movies.

Not necessarily. Unless you're successfully hitting a particular niche, there's a baseline of spending needed to break through the white noise of advertising in general, and generate basic awareness. At a certain point it becomes more proportional, yes, but only above said baseline, and that baseline is higher than you might think.

Maybe, but just because they could afford to doesn't mean they would. Once a habit of watching movies on big HD screens at home is made, there's no guarantee whatsoever it could be easily broken. And if the studios make more movies for the same production total as with one big movie, as you recommend, they haven't shrunk their risk at all. In short: you really don't seem to know what you're talking about here.

Studio do this all the time; it's called horror movies, and they tend to make much more profit than other genres due to lower costs. And they also release a number of lower-budgeted movies per year, especially around awards time. But if the theaters refuse to screen them, and instead play that week's bigger-budgeted movies on most of their screens, there's not a whole lot the studios can do about that. And then there's the old weapons disarmament problem: whoever disarms first, without assurances other parties will do the same, makes themselves vulnerable. (And you can save yourself the bother of bringing up outliers like Deadpool, because if I wanted and had time to, I could cite dozens of similarly modestly-budget movies that didn't recoup their costs.)

I'm not saying studio executives are geniuses, necessarily. But I'd also caution against assuming they're morons who don't know what they're doing, as you seem to be doing, with posts riddled with basic errors about the business and logical fallacies. Chances are, the professionals know a bit more about all this than you or I.

Well done. Way to devolve a respectable thread consisting of a fair and reasonable discussion into a post containing straw man content and ad hominem insults attacks. As such, I'm not even going to respond to the salient points you raised, but ignore you entirely from here on out while continuing to discuss this with the other reasonable people in the thread.
 
Pointing out whopping errors ≠ personal attacks. Ignore me if you like, but your "reasonable discussion" is full of faulty logic and wild assumptions.
 
From the Wall Street Journal today.

tumblr_obz8t080iV1r4pq4io1_1280.jpg


Suicide Squad isn't close to being a flop, but don't let the truth impede the desire boost sales.


Sadly however, Pete's Dragon joins ranks of flops and underperforming films of 2016. That's 3 live action films in a row for Disney that have flopped this year (Alice 2, BFG, Pete's Dragon). The Jungle Book sits between Alice 2 and Disney's flop from January, The Finest Hours.

The Finest Hours

Zoolander 2

Divergent: Allegiant

The Huntsman

The Boss

X-Men Apocalypse

Alice Through The Looking Glass

TMNT Out Of The Shadows

Independence Day

Warcraft

BFG

Tarzan

Ghostbusters

Star Trek Beyond :'(

Pete's Dragon
 
Studios don't set ticket prices or schedule 3D vice 2D showings; theaters do. And I'm fairly sure theaters don't pay more to screen bigger-budgeted movies.
Actually they do.

Studios lease their films to the cinemas/theatres for a set period of time. For the first 2-3 weeks of a films release the % return the theatre sends back to the studio is around the 75-80% mark (in the US). After this point, that can swing to a 45-60% mark. But it is negotiated pre-released and then, sometimes, on a week by week basis dependant upon how well a film is doing. Some of this negotiation will revolve around timings of showings, how many per day, not just the cost release per week.

A good example is something like Star Wars: Attack of the Clones where certain theatres were told "You want this, you have to give us 100% for the first 5 weeks". Clearly that cinema (or chain) IS paying more to screen the bigger films and to make any money off it the cinema needs for the film to be still performing well at week 6 and onwards.

I used to work in the industry (albeit 15 years ago) and we were endlessly frustrated by negotiation tactics with distributors. I worked for Odeon, at the time the largest Cinema chain in the UK, who should have had ready access to pretty much all the major releases with no issues. However, I recall when Mission Impossible 2 was being released, Odeon negotiated poorly with Paramount UK and we ended up only showing the film for one week, on one screen, 3 times a day. Why? Because a newer cinema, with larger screens opened 1 mile away and Paramount decided to put their efforts in that chain instead. Odeon would have still paid the % back per ticket, but with limited exposure as a film like that would typically have played in at least two screens for 3-4 performances a day, over a few weeks.

So the leverage the distributors have over the cinema chains is massive and each chain WILL pay a different amount to lease the films dependant upon location, residential demographics etc. Some chains will get forced out of the equation all together because of politics. Or in the case of the following - force themselves out. When Hateful Eight came out in the UK this year the distributors only wanted the 70mm print to run on the Odeon Screen in Leicester Square, London. Which led to the chain Cineworld boycotting the film as they have a 70mm theatre in Leicester Square also. The distributors couldn't see the point of playing the film on a 344 seat screen whilst also playing it on a 1600 seat screen, but that lost them the remainder of the 800 Cineworld theatres across the country. It was an odd and bold move by the chain to highlight the point that the distributors really do control what plays where and for how much revenue, taking a loss by not entering into any contract with the distributor Entertainment at all.

The leverage that the distributors have over the cinemas is really what has led to the massive surge in ticket prices and the over-reliance on concessions to help break even. If you have a huge turnover of films flooding your market, distributors demanding up to 80% of revenue for the first 2-4 weeks of big releases, a digital entertainment market that is quickly offering more fanciful and satisfying options to your customer base, the only thing you have left to do to survive is (a) hike your prices up, (b) reduce your staff (digital projection has completely destroyed that job, whilst the foyers are like Theme parks with massive queues and barely a staff member in sight), and (c) make your Pepsi's BIG, but watered down to piss, at £5 a go.

Hugo - shame
 
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From the Wall Street Journal today.

tumblr_obz8t080iV1r4pq4io1_1280.jpg


Suicide Squad isn't close to being a flop, but don't let the truth impede the desire boost sales.

Indeed. According to the current stats on Box Office Mojo, "Suicide Squads" first ten days have been better than "Guardians of the Galaxy"'s first ten days (domestically):

Suicide Squad
10-Day Total: $222,640,741

Guardians of the Galaxy
10-Day Total: $176,515,761
 
The film industry seemed to be in a fix. It's generating familiar output - remakes, sequels and reboots - instead of anything new or original. And sometimes, moviegoers stay away, claiming that they want something original. But when movie do generate something new or original, moviegoers seemed to reject it as well, due to what . . . I do not know.
 
I actually agree with you there. It's been a while since we had a completely original movie actually make the huge numbers that we see the sequels and franchise movies make.
 
I actually agree with you there. It's been a while since we had a completely original movie actually make the huge numbers that we see the sequels and franchise movies make.

The second biggest film of the year is zootopia, the secret life of pets isn't far behind.
 
I tend to think of the animated Disney movies as a kind of franchise of their own. Just being that is enough to get a movie a lot of attention right out of the gate.
 
Let's put this idea about reboots/sequels to the test. Are the biggest movies of 2016 (by box office) reboots/remakes/franchise films? Let's find out!

1. Finding Dory (sequel)
2. Captain America: Civil War (sequel)
3. Deadpool (franchise)
4. The Jungle Book (remake)
5. Zootopia (original)
6. The Secret Life of Pets (original)

7. Batman v Superman (franchise/sequel)
8. Suicide Squad (franchise)
9. X-Men: Apocalypse (sequel)
10. Kung Fu Panda 3 (sequel)
11. Star Trek Beyond (sequel)
12. Jason Bourne (sequel)
13. Central Intelligence (original)
14. The Legend of Tarzan (remake)
15. Ghostbusters (remake/reboot)
16. The Angry Birds Movie (franchise)
17. Independence Day: Resurgence (sequel)
18. The Conjuring 2 (sequel)
19. Ride Along 2 (sequel)
20. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows (sequel)

Good grief. A whopping 3 out of 20 are original films.

How does 2015 stack up?

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (sequel)
2. Jurassic World (sequel)
3. Avengers: Age of Ultron (sequel)
4. Inside Out (original)
5. Furious 7 (sequel)
6. Minions (sequel)
7. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 (sequel)
8. The Martian (original, but like halfway so since it's a pretty literal adaptation of a book)
9. Cinderella (remake)
10. Spectre (sequel)
11. Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation (sequel)
12. The Revenant (original)
13. Pitch Perfect 2 (sequel)
14. Ant-Man (franchise)
15. Home (original)
16. Hotel Transylvania 2 (sequel)
17. Fifty Shades of Grey (original, but same deal as The Martian)
18. The Spongebob Movie: Sponge out of Water (sequel)
19. Straight Outta Compton (original)
20. San Andreas (original)

So, 2015 was a bit better. But what did things look like in, say, 2000? That's way before this comic book/franchise craze started (though obviously you had plenty of sequels back then).

1. How the Grinch Stole Christmas (remake)
2. Cast Away (original)
3. Mission Impossible II (sequel)
4. Gladiator (original)
5. What Women Want (original)
6. The Perfect Storm (original)
7. Meet the Parents (original)

8. X-Men (franchise, but hey, not a sequel)
9. Scary Movie (original, if we can call it that)
10. What Lies Beneath (original)
11. Dinosaur (original)
12. Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (original)
13. Erin Brockovich (original)

14. Charlie's Angels (franchise)
15. Traffic (original)
16. Nutty Professor II: The Klumps (sequel)
17. Big Momma's House (original)
18. Remember the Titans (original)
19. The Patriot (original)
20. Miss Congeniality (original)

Wow. A mere 25% of the top films were sequels, remakes, or franchise films. Times really have changed.
 
Wow, I didn't realize sequels and remakes had taken over the box office to that extent. No wonder that's all we get these days.
 
Of you guys go back a few pages I posted a link to an article that discusses the same thing. They have 58 sequels /remakes this year, which is by far the record. There is also a record number of tent pole films fighting it out, while mod budget films have all but disappeared.
 
We can add Ben-Hur, Pete's Dragon, War Dogs to the flops and Jason Bourne to the under performers. Mega bummer.
 
Which consist of two remakes, a sequel, and one original.
Well then, we'd all better get crackin' (collective "we", given all the posts I've read on TrekBBS--present company excepted of course--over the years about how easy it would be to do a better job of making movies than the pros who do it for a living).
 
Which consist of two remakes, a sequel, and one original.
You do have to wonder though. Who was clamoring for a remake of Ben-Hur and Pete's Dragon? After Gods of Egypt and Exodus Gods and Kings, you'd think movies of those kinds would be out of fashion. Pete's Dragon was never a big Disney IP, but with all the remakes Disney has been doing of their old movies, I wonder why they chose this one.

Jason Bourne was finished with Ultimatum. Why come back for a sequel? Money?

What is War Dogs and why wasn't it advertised more?

I get the feeling TPTB in Hollywood just like to throw money away at times.
 
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