Arrogance? That would require forgetting this little thing called
common sense!
Leaving aside everyone's personal opinions regarding Peters and some of the other Axanar staffers, let's look at things that we can reasonably conclude are
solid facts:
- CBS and Paramount own the rights to the Star Trek franchise, and all that entails.
- Prelude to Axanar, and by intention, Star Trek: Axanar, infringe on the intellectual property involved in that franchise. The degree to which they infringe may be disputed, but that they do infringe cannot be disputed.
- CBS and Paramount are enormous corporations that have vast financial and legal resources.
- Axanar Productions... has a pro bono attorney, and not much else. No matter how good that attorney is, CBS/Paramount have far greater resources than Axanar does.
- It is in the best interests of CBS and Paramount -- and, indeed, every other rights holder in Hollywood -- to ensure that their rights are protected.
These things really can't be sanely argued. They're facts, and disputing them is pretty much an act of self delusion. And when you put them all together,
Axanar has already lost.
The only question we need to ask is,
how badly, and what form will it take?
Personally, I see only one potential silver lining to Axanar's cloud, and that's dependent upon just how strong an argument they can make that fan films should be allowable under current copyright law. If they have a defense that might be worth something, then CBS would be much more likely to settle. In reference to that last point up there, they probably don't want precedent set in this area any more than a lot of us do, and for exactly the same reason: the possibility exists, no matter how remote, that it could go against them.
This could lead to a settlement in some form, but you can bet that it will be very much in CBS/Paramount's favor. It is doubtful that
Axanar will ever be allowed to be made as a Trek film, because that would be too much capitulation for CBS/Paramount; it would set them up to go through this all over again when the next yahoo tries something similar.
CBS will do everything in their power to ensure that this mythical viable defense is never actually tested in court. Of
that you can be certain. Everyone has their price, and CBS would find one that the Axanar folks can't walk away from, and which still gives them what they want.
That said, such a defense almost certainly doesn't exist in this case. Looked at from a common sense perspective, Axanar has drawn tremendous funding from CBS IP, they have done business surrounding it -- and whether that business is for-profit or not is irrelevant. I cannot imagine a court treating this with kid gloves like they might a garage-made fan film. It would have to be one
hell of an argument.
Nobody can ever be 100% certain of anything, but the likelihood of a good outcome for Axanar is so remote as to be laughable -- and one does not need a deep understanding of IP law to see that. Just look at history, and the power that Hollywood wields in general.
JMHO, of course.
Disclaimer for those just joining us: the above is my personal opinion. I AM NOT A LAWYER OF ANY DESCRIPTION!
