My gut tells me that after this next movie, big screen Trek will go dormant for a while. That's not necessarily a bad thing. Paramount milked it to death from 1987-2005, and we're lucky we got this reboot.
I seriously doubt that CBS will spend the money to put a new Trek show on the flagship network. Les Moonves is on record as saying he isn't interested in Trek on tv. I don't see it fitting into the CBS primetime lineup of procedurals and sitcoms and reality shows.
As it is, Star Trek is a cash cow for CBS and they don't have to spend a dime to rake in the proceeds from licensing. It is literally a golden goose ... or figuratively, if you're that guy. Cash cow, golden goose, mixing metaphors, whatever.
If there were to be a new series, it would probably be on a CBS owned cable channel with limited seasons, and probably in the same vein as the Abrams films. But I'm not holding my breath.
I think, to a degree, you are correct, past ST3 I cannot see the momentum continuing to sustain a successful blockbuster movie franchise, there's no guarantee of ST3 even doing Into Darkness numbers. As much as I am a big screen fan of Trek primarily (when do you ever see me in the series subforums?) Star Trek needs another shot at TV. It belongs there really and it deserves it. It's been long enough off the small screen and TV series's have moved on a lot in the last decade. The Breaking Bad generation will demand a high quality show. A different chocolate bar stuck to the alien of the week won't cut it any more.