STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Discussion in 'Star Trek Movies XI+' started by RAMA, Apr 26, 2013.

  1. Belz...

    Belz... Commodore Commodore

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    Trekkie butts or non-Trekkie butts ?

    We've seen both sides of the argument so far: on the one hand, some people say the movie would be more popular if they had made a connection with previous Trek more obvious; and on the other, people say the movie would have worked better if they had stopped making connections with previous Trek.

    I think both are wrong: the movie is as successful as it could have been.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 9, 2013
  2. Admiral Buzzkill

    Admiral Buzzkill Fleet Admiral Admiral

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    Rarely for purposes of comparison between movies, especially over a number of years.

    Every one of these attempts to apply some kind of formula to find equivalence founders on the premise that all other significant factors are equal - and they never are.
     
  3. Opus

    Opus Commodore Commodore

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    Paramount Exec 1 - "Star Trek into Darkness is doing great."

    Paramount Exec 2 - "Yeah. Too bad Grady Smith from EW didn't mention it in his internet article."

    Paramount Exec 1 - "... Pull the plug."

    Paramount Exec 2 - "But-"

    Paramount Exec 1 - "Pull. The. PLUG!"
     
  4. RAMA

    RAMA Admiral Admiral

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    Looks like even with Japan the movie will finish off around $460 million
     
  5. Noname Given

    Noname Given Vice Admiral Admiral

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  6. LOKAI of CHERON

    LOKAI of CHERON Commodore Commodore

    I don't know, I guess it's possible Trek has a "ceiling" beyond which it cannot push through. But I still feel the franchise has the potential to reach $700m+ territory given the right circumstances, marketing and, well, luck.
     
  7. Opus

    Opus Commodore Commodore

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  8. KGator

    KGator Lieutenant Commander Red Shirt

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    Mentally? . . . that's debatable.
    :guffaw:

    Having Opus as an avatar just makes this even funnier. I could see this as an actual Bloom County snippet.
     
  9. KGator

    KGator Lieutenant Commander Red Shirt

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    Mentally? . . . that's debatable.
  10. khan2

    khan2 Ensign Newbie

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    Rules what? Certainly not the studio's return on investment.

    Let's take a closer look at the numbers as of 7/7/13 according to boxofficemojo.com

    Hansel and Gretel:
    Budget: $50 million, Total Gross: $225,703,475 = 4.51 ROI ratio

    Jack Reacher:
    Budget: $60 million, Total Gross: $216,568,266 = 3.61 ROI ratio

    G.I. Joe:
    Budget: $130 million, Total Gross: $371,876,278 = 2.86 ROI ratio

    So what about Star Trek Into Darkness?
    Budget: $190 million, Total Gross: $443,865,011 = 2.34 ROI ratio

    The lowest ROI of all Paramount's major releases this year.

    For a more direct comparison vis-a-vis film budget:
    WWZ budget = STID budget but after less than 3 weeks of release,
    WWZ's total gross is already 82.5% of STID's total gross and will certainly eclipse STID's performance.

    For reference, Star Trek (2009)'s ROI was 2.57 which means that STID would have to earn an additional amount of nearly $45 million just to match ST09's ROI performance - at this point, not very likely at all.

    STID has done "fine" but not "great" so while no "pulling of the plug" is in order, we'll very likely see a tightening of budget purse-strings with the next film.
     
  11. Admiral Buzzkill

    Admiral Buzzkill Fleet Admiral Admiral

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    You have no idea what the studio's ROI is on any of those films. You're simply playing with the publicly discussed "production budgets" and the published gross box office numbers.
     
  12. khan2

    khan2 Ensign Newbie

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    I made a comparison based on the best available public data. If you have additional information on which to base an analysis, be my guest.
     
  13. Sindatur

    Sindatur The Grey Owl Wizard Premium Member

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    Of course he doesn't, no one does, that's the point he's trying to make.

    There's also Product Placement, TV sales (Domestic and international), DVD/BluRay sales, etc, that all stem from total Box Office, and they will never share that information with us, because it's all gravy.
     
  14. BillJ

    BillJ Fleet Admiral Admiral

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    But when your making an analysis while missing a ton of needed information, you're making a poor analysis.
     
  15. KGator

    KGator Lieutenant Commander Red Shirt

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    Mentally? . . . that's debatable.
    So what is your point? That its better to make less money more efficiently than more money less efficiently?

    So if I came to you and said give me $50 and I'll get you $225 in 6 months or give me $190 and I'll get you $450 in 6 months time you would prefer a lesser return because its a lesser investment?

    I don't know . . . it seems to me that if you had the $190 to invest I'd rather make that back with a $260 profit than invest $50 (keeping the other $140 in the bank) and get that back with an extra $175 at the end.

    Now clearly this is a simplistic analysis but it would seem like these results show that it takes money to make money. The more you want to make the more you have to spend and the efficiency decreases as the amounts get larger.
     
  16. Admiral Buzzkill

    Admiral Buzzkill Fleet Admiral Admiral

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    Exactly so.

    Picking up on those numbers and using them to go on about "ROI" as if one has figured out something real is a joke. :lol:
     
  17. Admiral Buzzkill

    Admiral Buzzkill Fleet Admiral Admiral

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    Using the word "analysis" in this context is unnecessarily dignifying it.
     
  18. Out Of My Vulcan Mind

    Out Of My Vulcan Mind Vice Admiral Admiral

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    Monday number: $146,309 for $223,211,320 so far.
     
  19. Belz...

    Belz... Commodore Commodore

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    ...followed by a discussion about ratio, as if that was somehow more meaningful.

    By that logic, Paramount should have continued to make Friday the 13th movies and nothing else, because the ratio of cost vs gross was very low.
     
  20. Neumann

    Neumann Captain Captain

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    We're getting there!!! :klingon:

    It's falling faster than expected. - Mostly because of theatre displacement