• Welcome! The TrekBBS is the number one place to chat about Star Trek with like-minded fans.
    If you are not already a member then please register an account and join in the discussion!

Warp Drive soon reality?

I'm confused. Am I missing some sort of physics unique to black holes? If the black hole and Neptune are the same mass and therefore the same gravitational force, then slingshotting around either one should yield the same effect, and we know where Neptune is. :confused:

I assume the idea is you get *real* close and steal a lot of energy from its rotation.

A black hole of Neptune's Mass would have a Schwarzschild radius of about 1.5cm. You can get a lot closer to the centre of mass than you can with Neptune.

If you could get a 1g accelerating craft on a brachistochrone trajectory you could through the inner solar system in a couple of days.

That's thousands of times more realistic than say a practical photon drive, let alone a reactionless drive. A general reactionless drive has all sorts of problems though with things like conservations of momentum

For those that hate the idea of grand spaceflight future, you should look at atomicrockets. This covers different rockets, but the site as a whole is about the basic impossibility of any popular scifi tropes.

 
You have WAY too much faith in AI, something I really don't share with your views given what I know about how current AI operates and how it works.

I don't conform to the idea of belief, truth or faith for that matter, so my reply has nothing to do with those.
I'm merely stating what is likely going to happen based on observed trends to date.

Use of adaptive algorithms and AI for automated R&D has already been implemented in medicine and in pursuit of developing new materials... and the trend is bound to accelerate as algorithms and AI are improved (looking at how quickly LLM's have improved in a span of a single year, its not unreasonable to suggest this will accelerate going forward).
 
I don't conform to the idea of belief, truth or faith for that matter, so my reply has nothing to do with those.
I'm merely stating what is likely going to happen based on observed trends to date.
As with all things, it's going to hit a "S-Curve" and slow down.

Use of adaptive algorithms and AI for automated R&D has already been implemented in medicine and in pursuit of developing new materials... and the trend is bound to accelerate as algorithms and AI are improved (looking at how quickly LLM's have improved in a span of a single year, its not unreasonable to suggest this will accelerate going forward).
LLM's are still in it's very nascent stage, of course it's going to improve when it's this early on.

It'll improve, but it'll hit the major road blocks soon.

The AI Bubble is going to burst sooner than later IMO.

The AI Revolution Is Already Losing Steam
The pace of innovation in AI is slowing, its usefulness is limited, and the cost of running it remains exorbitant
Today's AI's remain ruinously expensive to run An oft-cited figure in arguments that we're in an AI bubble is a calculation by Silicon Valley venture-capital firm Sequoia that the industry spent $50 billion on chips from Nvidia to train AI in 2023, but brought in only $3 billion in revenue.
That kind of financial burn rate can't be sustained and the bubble will pop sooner than later.

nVIDIA is the only one profiting, everybody else is dying financially.

AI might have use in the future, but it won't be sustainable until it's cheap, easy, reliable, energy efficient, & ubiquitous.

We aren't there yet, and who knows how long it's going to take to get to that point.


AI Companies lose $190 billion in market cap after Alphabet & Microsoft report
Investors Are Suddenly Getting Very Concerned That AI Isn't Making Any Serious Money
Companies are losing faith in AI, and AI is losing money
 
Last edited:
As with all things, it's going to hit a "S-Curve" and slow down.


LLM's are still in it's very nascent stage, of course it's going to improve when it's this early on.

It'll improve, but it'll hit the major road blocks soon.

The AI Bubble is going to burst sooner than later IMO.

The AI Revolution Is Already Losing Steam


That kind of financial burn rate can't be sustained and the bubble will pop sooner than later.

nVIDIA is the only one profiting, everybody else is dying financially.

AI might have use in the future, but it won't be sustainable until it's cheap, easy, reliable, energy efficient, & ubiquitous.

We aren't there yet, and who knows how long it's going to take to get to that point.


AI Companies lose $190 billion in market cap after Alphabet & Microsoft report
Investors Are Suddenly Getting Very Concerned That AI Isn't Making Any Serious Money
Companies are losing faith in AI, and AI is losing money

There's nothing stopping us from leveraging EXISTING computational power for the same thing to vastly accelerate R&D which would result in faster practical applications.

While there are losses associated with AI due to how expensive it is to run, for others, adoption of AI is accelerating.




There's also the fact tha some AI companies are trying to reduce the costs of running LLM's and changing them to models that would be a lot more cost effective.


At any rate, point remains we have already made a lot of breakthroughs much faster than we would have because of AI.
Such uses are bound to be used more... and I suspect that even if the use of LLM's drops in the general population (which is unlikely considering how many people and industries have become reliant on them), its likely going to remain high for R&D and similar applications - so, overall use of AI may become more specialized.

But time will tell
 
There's nothing stopping us from leveraging EXISTING computational power for the same thing to vastly accelerate R&D which would result in faster practical applications.
AI already uses as much energy as a small country. It’s only the beginning.
Power requirements, hardware costs, software costs, energy costs, skilled talent to make use of it; those are all limiting factors.

While there are losses associated with AI due to how expensive it is to run, for others, adoption of AI is accelerating.
For some companies with deep pockets, but we'll see how much they're willing to continue investing when returns on investment don't show up.

There's also the fact tha some AI companies are trying to reduce the costs of running LLM's and changing them to models that would be a lot more cost effective.
That should be a first priority, not something that comes afterwards.

At any rate, point remains we have already made a lot of breakthroughs much faster than we would have because of AI.
Hard to say, we don't live in the other timeline, so we can't see if those break throughs actually pan out into something truly useful.

Such uses are bound to be used more... and I suspect that even if the use of LLM's drops in the general population (which is unlikely considering how many people and industries have become reliant on them), its likely going to remain high for R&D and similar applications - so, overall use of AI may become more specialized.
Depends on ROI to the companies currently dabbling in them.

But time will tell
Yes it will, it defintely will.
 
I'm confused. Am I missing some sort of physics unique to black holes? If the black hole and Neptune are the same mass and therefore the same gravitational force, then slingshotting around either one should yield the same effect, and we know where Neptune is. :confused:
True--but I was thinking about a tether being fed to the black hole to eat---that should give a hell of a yank. Cut the line before being broken up yourself
 
Not sure what you mean by a hell of a yank, but I did go down a rabbit hole of the Oberth effect and relativity.

Now I've never really grasped Oberth, but I think that the equations come out to be that the efficency of a powered flyby (assuming your ship survives) near the event horizon of a Neptune sized black hole would be in in the range of 100,000 times normal. I.e. a 1m/s delta-v would allow you to change your velocity by 100s of km/s

However that itself would be just using normal oberth calculations, and not factoring in relativity which if you approached close enough to such an object would be a major issue. I believe that relativity would mean that the efficiency gains would be even higher, potentially allowing even a present day probe (assuming it could survive the stress) to reach significant percentage of the speed of light relative to the solar system.

I'm unsure how an ion drive would work in a relativistic gravity well, and it's far too late to pretend I know anything about this. Normally an ion drive can't benefit from Oberth due to the low thrust, but with time dilation perhaps it could.
 
I was thinking that only the expendable tether being eaten would be the only part of the ship I want near the black hole.

Less an Oberth maneuver--more "I tied the crash test dummy to one end of a chain--and an anchor on the other end."

Drop the anchor and the chain drags the dummy down quick.

That might exceed an Oberth slingshot.
 
If all black holes (even a small one with a near-invisible accretion disk) generate strong magnetic fields, maybe we can 'use' this effect somehow for a propulsion push? Just spitballing.
 
If you are not already a member then please register an account and join in the discussion!

Sign up / Register


Back
Top