UARS satellite parts have 1 in 3,200 chance of striking Earth

[RobertVA]

This is a test of the emergency broadcast system. If this had been an actual emergency...

Ha! Now the news has dismissed the reports than anything came down in Alberta and has NASA saying debris "likely didn't reach land". 2011 and that's the best we can do for tracking?

I'm thinking ICBMs would require a trajectory that's hundreds of miles high, thus visible to land based radar installations at a much greater distance than a satellite in a nearly circular orbit skimming along a nearly flat trajectory less than a hundred miles up. ICBMs would also produce a visible exhaust trail and/or thermal signature over a known hostile that's subject to intelligence satellite surveillance.

 

[B.J.]

There's also the issue that at its current altitude, the atmosphere is affecting its path and orbit in unpredictable ways. If there was no atmospheric drag on the satellite, then yes, we'd be able to predict its path pretty accurately.

 

[RobertVA]

There's also the issue that at its current altitude, the atmosphere is affecting its path and orbit in unpredictable ways. If there was no atmospheric drag on the satellite, then yes, we'd be able to predict its path pretty accurately.

At its current altitude it's more probable it will be affected by Pacific Ocean currents

 

[PurpleBuddha]

I'm just worried it'll hit CERN.

That would have fucked with our heads for some time.