About a day and a half left to vote. How will this turn out? Let's visit our election expert for his analysis.
How are the polls at the moment?
We currently have a tie between B'Stard and Winston, with Janet Eldridge close behind. The excentric candidate Jimmy James is behind, but still in the running, he might still make it, at least into a tie.
What should we make of the poor poll results for Frank Underwood?
This is a big surprise, everybody considered him to be a sure bet to make it to second place, at least, with good chances to win the popular vote. It seems that he was too much of an establishment candidate, too much the obvious choice, when voters appear to be just tired of him and his antics. When you look at the other candidates, James, B'Stard, Winston, Eldridge, they've been around for decades, but spend most of that time on the sidelines or in reruns. There's a bit of brand recognition there, but people simply aren't fed up with them as they seem to be with the seemingly ever-present Underwood. But I wouldn't write him off just yet. We've been surprised in recent elections, so while he might need a miracle to win this, he might just get that miracle. As Jon Snow put it after the results of the recent UK General Election, "I know nothing".
If the election ends in a tie, what then?
Ties happen from time to time, and there are several possibilities to deal with them. The most common, one might say the traditional way is for one of the winning parties to relinquish the position to the other winning party, that might be the most likely solution in case of a tie. I wouldn't bet on B'Stard or James to do that, though. Then there's the possibility of a run-off in a second ballot, with voters asked to choose only between those two candidates. The French elections favor this system, but it's rarely seen in the rest of the world. And finally, the rarely used option of a coalition, with the winning parties working together. Let me give you an example, let's say the two candidates most behind in the polls, Jimmy James and Frank Underwood, performed a miracle and turned out to be tied for first place, they might work out a deal. James is mostly interested in the prestige of the position, and telling people what to do, but doesn't much care about details in his actual policies, and that's where Underwood's strengths are, working behind the scenes, working with people to actually get things done. So, unlikely as that situation looks, these two might work just well together, and as we have learned in recent elections, nothing is impossible.
Many people would favor a coalition between Winston and Eldridge.
While their personalities seem to make them a natural fit, this would most likely depend on Eldridge. From his time as Mayor of New York, we know, well, it's a bit of an open secret that Winston didn't do much work, relying mostly on his Deputy Mayors to run things for him and get him out of the occasional scandal. Eldridge on the other end is a workhorse, so in a coalition we'd likely see Winston taking credit for Eldridge's work, and I doubt Eldirdge would stand for that. A coalition between Winston and B'Stard would look similar, but B'Stard is far more ruthless and strategic than Eldridge, and would probably get rid of Winston very quickly.
So, when all is said and done who will win this election?
Like I've said before, recent elections have taught us to be careful with predictions. On the other hand, Winston totally has this one in the bag.
Thanks to our election expert for his analysis.
