Judging from the season finale, I would say that Starfleet Security is gonna be under some intense scrutiny for the foreseeable future since its director has been revealed as a Tal Shiar/Zhat Vash mole, with any new director conducting a top to bottom mole hunt to ferret out any more "Lt. Rizzo's" as well as probably committing some serious resources to hunting Oh's ass down. Is this enough to go to war over? Maybe, maybe not. Clancy will probably not want her standing trial in any kind of public forum due to the knowledge that the Tal Shiar was able to penetrate Security at all, much less to that level would seriously erode the public's trust in Starfleet. At the same time, the knowledge that Romulans were directly responsible for what happened on Mars is going to come out eventually, and the Federation would have a perfectly legitimate excuse for the use of force against them. She could also develop into a recurring adversary for Picard's new crew. Any usefulness she had to the Tal Shiar is now over. Granted she probably made further inroads than any asset save Nanclus from TUC or Selok in influencing Federation policy, but any intel service worth its salt burns assets once they have been exposed, and no matter how high she got, she cant go back to her cover. In the eyes of the Tal Shiar, she's also probably damaged goods as well since they probably don't look too well on failure, and may offer her up as a sacrificial lamb to the Federation in the hopes of sweeping this under the rug. (I dont see the Romulans as the type of culture who would quietly reassign someone to a strategically unimporant posting as a consequence of their failures.)
The Zhat Vash are secret police within secret police. Oh is Keyser Soze... she and her entire fleet will just disappear to parts unknown until needed. She reports to no one, apparently, unless they decide to introduce a superior. The Zhat Vash probably operate like terrorist cells, so I expect Oh (or Nedar, as I guess is her real name) to be very, very hard to find.
The news that the Romulans were behind the Mars attack is going to come out now, no? The Federation rehabilitated the synths. It will need to explain why.
Picard acknowledged and publicly re-instated, reputation restored — even if he then officially “retires” again, or maybe joins Riker on the “active reserve.”
If the truth does come out there should be serious consequences for all those who fell for the Zhat Vash's trap starting with a root and branch purge of Starfleet Security to make sure there aren't any more spies. Whether we will actually see any of that on screen remains to be seen. I do appreciate how Clancy didn't mess around and sent the heavies in though.
Spoiler: Picard spoilers Commander Oh is returning for season 2 to cause trouble according to a Youtube Interview with an actor that played one of the Romulans I watched several weeks ago that was posted in the Picard forum.
Not surprising. Unlike ambassador T'Pel, who we never saw again, a return engagement of Oh should be a lot of fun. She can be the new Tomalak, only less camp. I wouldn't be surprised to see Narissa again too. She transported out of a jam with the xB's and never left the cube.
Where were s31? Some serious questions to be asked by themselves as why they let Oh continue in role. Sure they wanted the supernova. Maybe even the synth attack, but come 2390s? Was s31 in the 24th century really ever anything more than Sloan?
Per se, Oh's infiltration of Starfleet Security is probably not actually enough to go to war over if we look at real-world history. The most obvious comparison would be to Kim Philby, a Soviet mole who infiltrated and achieved high rank within MI-6 before being exposed and fleeing to the Soviet Union in 1961; the United Kingdom did not declare war upon the Soviet Union, even though Philby had cost several lives and done terrible damage to their intelligence operations. But I think an even better comparison would be to Robert Hanssen. Hanssen was an FBI agent who spied on the United States government for both the Soviet Union and for the post-Soviet Russian Federation, from 1979 to 2001. I think Hanssen is a really good comparison because the political situations are fairly well analogous. In real life, the Soviet Union collapsed in December 1991, and several different states emerged that had previously been part of the USSR, including the Russian Federation and Ukraine. We know from PIC that the Romulan Star Empire either collapsed or splintered some time after the 2387 supernova, and that the Romulan Free State is either a successor state or a "spin-off" state that has achieved diplomatic recognition from the Federation. Though the following details are not at this point canonical, showrunner Michael Chabon's Instagram posts have indicated that the writers' intention was that the Star Empire had collapsed, and the Free State is the most powerful of several successor states that have emerged due to the backing of the organization that either is still or was once known as the Tal Shiar. The canon seems to imply, but does not explicitly state, that the Romulan Free State is less hostile towards the Federation than the Star Empire had been. We know that the Neutral Zone had been finally abolished after standing between the UFP and RSE for over two hundred years, for instance. I think the biggest implication that the Romulan Free State is less hostile towards the Federation than the RSE had been, is the Borg Artifact. If the Free State had uniformly hostile intentions, it seems improbable that it would have invited the Federation to send its scientists to help study the cube or to help revive and rehabilitate ex-Borg drones. Under the old regime, the Romulan Imperial Fleet would have secured the cube, and the Star Empire's officers would have likely killed or imprisoned the inactive former drones and have tried to reverse-engineer Borg technology for their own exclusive military usage. Yet we know that the Free State actively signed a treaty with the Federation over the cube's fate and was allowing Federation scientists to study its technology along with them. But, we also know that the Tal Shiar remains a significant power within the Free State, and seems as hostile and authoritarian as ever. But the Tal Shiar also appears to be under a certain amount of hindrance from the Free State's government. Indeed, Narissa seemed to be implying that she had needed a legal basis for seizing control of the Artifact and executing Hugh under Free State law -- rather than just having carte blanche to seize control and do whatever she wants, which the Tal Shiar used to be able to do on Romulan Imperial Fleet ships per TNG's "Face of the Enemy." And of course, the Tal Shiar fleet backed down from attacking Corpelius after Captain Riker invoked the Free State's treaty obligations towards the Federation -- implying that the Tal Shiar did not have the authority to commit the Free State to a major war and would find itself in conflict with its own government if it tried to carry out its anti-Synth mission. Now, the situations don't line up exactly perfectly. We know that in real life, Robert Hanssen was a United States citizen who turned traitor after joining the FBI. PIC is unclear whether Nedar was originally from the Romulan Star Empire and infiltrated Starfleet under a false identity, or if she was raised in the Federation to be secretly loyal to the Zhat Vash and Tal Shiar. But the broad parallels do line up. The Soviet Union collapses; the Russian Federation emerges as the most powerful post-Soviet state; Russia maintains the support of the KGB (now known as the FSB, but really it's the same organization with a different name) while also trying to go for friendlier relations with the United States and a more open society. The Romulan Star Empire collapses; the Romulan Free State emerges as the most powerful post-RSE state; the RFS maintains the support of the Tal Shiar while also trying to go for friendlier relations with the United Federation of Planets and a more open society. Robert Hanssen was exposed in 2001 after spying for the Russian Federation for ten years and for the Soviet Union for a previous 12 years. We know that Nedar started infiltrating Starfleet under the name "Oh" some time after Data was discovered, presumably as part of a long-term project of seeking out and destroying Data and other Soong-type androids. We know the Romulans were in self-imposed isolation until the early Borg incursions forced them out of seclusion in 2364, when the Imperial Fleet made contact with the Enterprise-D. I would hypothesize that Nedar began her infiltration circa 2365 as a direct result of Data's presence being observed on the Enterprise bridge -- meaning that she had been spying on the Federation for the Tal Shiar for around 34 years as of "Et in Arcadia Ego, Part II; compare that to Hanssen spying on the U.S. for 22 years when he was exposed. So, in both instances, you get these long-term moles who've done tremendous damage to domestic security operations, on the behalf of a hostile foreign regime that collapses and then on behalf of a friendlier successor regime that still wants to be able to spy on the other side even if they're not looking to be actively enemies. Now, on that basis alone, I think the Hanssen situation is illustrative. In 2001, the United States uncovered Hanssen and arrested him; they didn't send him to Russia or do any sort of prisoner exchange with him, but they also didn't go to war with Russia, or even really fundamentally change U.S./Russian relations. The U.S. and Russia were still trying to be buddy-buddy, especially after 9/11. Relations only stated to get worse in 2008, when Russia invaded Georgia, and only definitively got worse in 2014, when it invaded Ukraine. So, Nedar's infiltration of the Federation likely won't mean going to war with the Romulan Free State. Especially since the Free State can just counter that a Federation citizen, Hugh, tried to size control of the Artifact and use it against the RFS, claiming that he was trying to seize Borg military tech secrets for the Federation. So it's tit-for-tat there. But! This next part does raise major questions about how the Federation should respond: Nedar is directly responsible for the deaths of over 92,000 Federates, the destruction of the Martian surface, and the destruction of numerous Federation starships and the Utopia Planitia Shipyards. This would normally constitute a clear act of war. But. It is not clear on whose behalf the attack occurred, from a political sense. Yes, the Zhat Vash -- but are the Zhat Vash an agency of the Romulan state? The attack occurred in 2385, when the Romulan Star Empire still stood. The Star Empire is gone; the Free State doesn't seem to want to be at war with the Federation or to have any knowledge of the attack themselves. Should the Federation sunder the progress in relations between the RFS and UFP, or should it treat the Zhat Vash as a rogue conspiracy within Romulan society? I expect the Federation may well demand the Free State hand over Nedar; if they refuse, I expect that might lead to a major freeze in Federation/Free State relations. We might see the re-establishment of the Neutral Zone, especially after Federation citizens hijacked the Artifact. But, I don't think we'll see either side going to war. The Federation probably understands that it's not clear if the Free State has control over the Zhat Vash, and the Free State seems to have a major interest in trying to build a better relationship with the UFP. It's not like they have other allies to turn to as far as we know. Who's "them?" The Star Empire? It's already collapsed. The Free State? No evidence they knew about the attack or have any control over it. Hell, the Tal Shiar/Zhat Vash appear to have conflicting goals with the Free State government in "Nepenthe." Also, the Federation isn't in the business of looking for "excuses" to go to war. Nanclus was the Ambassador of the Romulan Star Empire to the United Federation of Planets. Foreign ambassadors are not exactly the same thing as moles. I could plausibly see the Free State offering Nedar up to the Federation, particularly if the Free State government genuinely wasn't party to the Tal Shiar's/Zhat Vash's plans and wants better relations. But I could also see this leading to the Zhat Vash members within the Tal Shiar to make the decision to have the Tal Shiar withdraw its support from the Free State, and either defect to one of the other Romulan states, or even establish themselves on their own. I think the Zhat Vash are less a secret police than something akin to a secret religious order. Their goal isn't to maintain the power of the state; their goal is to enforce their ban of synthetic life in Romulan society. They look less like a part of the Romulan governments to me than like a conspiracy within those governments. Yeah, the whole thing where she's been a mole within Starfleet for decades while also being a general within the Tal Shiar seems... improbable. Poetic license, I suppose. I seriously hope that by 2399, Section 31 has been exposed, its agents brought to justice, and its infrastructure dismantled. Seems pretty obvious to me: they were fooled just like Starfleet Intelligence, Starfleet Security, and Federation Security. Remember, Nedar had probably been infiltrating Starfleet since the 2360s. I can see Section 31 wanting the supernova, but I have trouble imagining them considering the destruction of the Utopia Planitia Shipyards to be an acceptable loss in service of any objective. They would never want to weaken the Federation. I would love to see Nedar return along with Jamie and Cersei*. They'd made for great recurring villains now that they have this history with Our Heroes. * (My affectionate nicknames for Narissa and Narek.)
What exactly were the timelines for the origin of the Zhat Vhash, the finding of the "Conclave of Eight" and the "Admonition"....? When did the Romulans find all this -- and did the Zhat Vhash already exist or were they established as a secret cult (for want of a better description) only after those discoveries...? Was Narek really telling us that they had, in fact, conflated what they thought they had understood from the Admonition with a much older proto-Romulan / early-Vulcan apocalypse myth? Most cultures seem to have such a myth, of one sort or another, so were the Zhat Vhash actually the remnants of an old proto-Romulan religious cult that re-purposed their apocalyptic beliefs after the Admonition was found? If the potential threat implied by the Admonition really was that big a deal, why did in need a secret society inside the Romulan secret police / intelligence service in order to drive that hidden agenda? If it was that important, why keep it hidden?
So, the timeline appears to be this: c. 200,000-300,000 years ago: The Admonition is established by the synthetic beings of Aia, who had wiped out the organic life native to that world. Michael Chabon has said on Instagram that those beings were originally called the Alterity in the PIC scripts before the lines establishing that name were cut, so I'm going to use that term for them. c. 4th Century CE: Vulcan dissidents who have rejected the spread of Surak's teachings leave the Vulcan system. Some time later, they land on Romulus and Remus. Some time early in Romulan history: The Admonition is discovered. The Admonition damages organic minds that come into contact with it, leading a large percentage of those who do to become insane or engage in suicide or self-harm. Surviving Romulan investigators come to believe that it is a warning from the native inhabitants of Aia against creating synthetic lifeforms, lest it lead to the destruction of all organic life. They form a cabal later known as the Zhat Vash, dedicated to suppressing the emergence of synthetic life wherever possible. 2364: Romulan D'deridex-class warbird under the command of Tebok makes contact with USS Enterprise-D while both are investigating the destruction of their respective states' colonies on both sides of the Neutral Zone (colonies later determined to have been destroyed by the Borg). Tebok and his crew observe the presence of Lt. Commander Data aboard the Enterprise bridge, and the Zhat Vash become aware of the presence of Soong-type androids in the Federation. c. 2360s: Zhat Vash agent Nedar begins infiltration of Starfleet under the identity Oh of Vulcan. 2379: Data destroyed in combat aboard the Reman ship Schimitar during brief reign of Shinzon of Remus as Praetor. c. Early 2380s: Agnes Jurati and Bruce Maddux are working together on developing new synthetic lifeforms at the Daystrom Institute, including developing the non-sentient A500-series of androids used at the Utopia Planitia Shipyards. 2385: Nedar presides over a reception of the Admonition by junior Zhat Vash agents, including Ramdha and her niece Narissa. 2385: The Federation has become aware of the imminent supernova of the Romulan star. Admiral Jean-Luc Picard has left command of the Enterprise to coordinate the formation of the largest evacuation fleet in interstellar history, advocating both the Romulan Senate and Federation Council for the operation to evacuate the peoples of Romulus and Remus. 2385: Nedar masterminds the attack on Mars, hacking into and seizing control of non-sentient androids created by the Daystrom Institute. The Federation enters a period of reactionary isolationism, banning synthetic lifeforms, severely restricting synthetic research, and abandoning its promise to help evacuate the Romulans. Jean-Luc Picard resigns in protest. Bruce Maddux steals remnants of Data's neural network from B-4's systems and goes into hiding on Coppelius with Altan Soong. c. 2385-2396: Soong and Maddux create the Synthetic community on Coppelius. 2387: Spock of Vulcan begins last-ditch effort to save Romulus using Red Matter. His efforts fail. Romulan star goes supernova; Romulus and Remus destroyed. Spock's ship, the Jellyfish, and a civilian Romulan mining ship, the Narada, are thrown into the 2200s of an alternate timeline. 2390: Federation starship USS Ibn Majid under the command of Captain Alonzo Vandermeer and First Officer Cristóbal Rios makes contact with the Synthetic Ambassador Beautiful Flower of Coppelius and his protege Jana. Captain Vandermeer receives black flag order from Commodore Oh of Starfleet Security, ordering him to murder Beautiful Flower and Jana on pain of the Ibn Majid being destroyed remotely with all hands aboard. Vandermeer complies with the illegal order before committing suicide. Entire incident is subsequently classified by Commodore Oh, who is in reality the Zhat Vash agent Nedar. Zhat Vash becomes aware of of the Synthetic colony as a result of this incident but do not know the planet's location. 2396: Maddux leaves Coppelius and creates the synths Dahj and Soji from a new lab on Freecloud. He gives each android false memories and seeks to place them inside Daystrom and the Borg Artifact, as part of a plan to try to determine who was behind the attack on Mars (which he suspects to have been the product of a conspiracy). 2399: Events of Star Trek: Picard. The Romulans must have discovered the Admonition some time very early in their history, after leaving Vulcan. They're established to be at least over a thousand years old by Laris in "Maps and Legends." I think that was the implication of "Et in Arcadia Ego, Part II," yes. Because Romulan political culture is fixated on secrecy and authoritarianism. And because if you start telling people what you don't want them to build, you're more likely to give someone ideas of what to build.