Hmmm, I'm lukewarm at best on this. He's a decent actor, but I don't see him as the inspiring captain for whom Spock would risk court-martial and death. Lucas specialises in playing slightly smarmy, untrustworthy guys. I don't really see him as the buttoned, somewhat haunted man of integrity that Pike seemed to be in the glimpses we got of him.
Maybe Lucas is able to play those qualities and just hasn't had the chance to do so yet, but I'm wary. He'e more in the vein of fellow Josh, Mr Holloway, when, as someone said, they should be going for someone like Holloway's Lost co-star Matthew Fox.