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Mars? When...

Using your STAR TREKian ability to predict the future of our TECH and the so-called ambition of mankind; when do you think the first colonist will, if ever, arrive on Mars? Take a guess, with in a ten year area of time.

Rob
 
As I have mentioned before, there is a fusion reactor, roughly spherical, 5 feet in diameter being developed, funded by the U.S. Navy, that when and if the Navy stops being so squeemish and gives them the $200 million they need instead of a couple of million at a time, and the thing works as expected, it would have a great impact on the world economy, be able to get people to Mars before they go stir crazy or succumb to radiation, and generate ample power on the ground once they get there, making it a lot easier to stay a while. If it ends up not working after a fair test, okay--at least we tried. But what people have said would prevent it from working has already been proved wrong in tests of scaled-down prototypes. So it looks promising.

But an interesting thing about this Polywell system is that, even though it's thought of as a future reactor for civilian use, by its very nature it can be configured as a fusion rocket with little modification. The Navy's interest, of course, is in powering ships with fusion, which apparantly is not an urgent goal.

If that happens, we could be on Mars actually doing stuff a lot sooner than you think.

But with chemical rockets, don't hold your breath.

With a VASIMR sytem, it's a bit hard but doable. It would just take a lot of money and development of a speciallized fission reactor for that use, since we have none with that sort of configuration on the shelf. If there happened to be something like that already available, then VASIMR would look very attractive but still need quite a bit of funding just for a stunt Mars mission.

Another thing some people are looking at for Mars missions is positron rocketry. One company is working on that, there is an article about it on NASA's Web site, and it recently got a lot easier to produce positrons in quantity. However, storage bottles for that have not yet been developed, and virtually the only use for them would be in space travel.
 
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I would say 2200.

We still have a lot of exploring to do. Sending little probes every few years is not enough. I'd say we'll see a manned flight there within the next 30 years, and then spend the next 100 going there occasionally and testing to see how it would be to live there. Only around 2200 we'll have the tech to have regular communication with Mars, and first colonists will be corporations in the form of hotels and resorts for rich, who'll be able to go there for a few weeks. Colonists living there won't happen until the planet is terraformed, which might be several hundred years after that.
 
As I have mentioned before, there is a fusion reactor, roughly spherical, 5 feet in diameter being developed, funding by the U.S. Navy, that when and if the Navy stops being so squeemish and gives them the $200 million they need instead of a couple of million at a time, and the thing works as expected, it would have a great impact on the world economy, be able to get people to Mars before they go stir crazy or succumb to radiation, and generate ample power on the ground once they get there, making it a lot easier to stay a while. If it ends up not working after a fair test, okay--at least we tried. But what people have said would prevent it from working has already been proved wrong in tests of scaled-down prototypes. So it looks promising.

But an interesting thing about this Polywell system is that, even though it's thought of as a future reactor for civilian use, by its very nature it can be configured as a fusion rocket with little modification. The Navy's interest, of course, is in powering ships with fusion, which apparantly is not an urgent goal.

If that happens, we could be on Mars actually doing stuff a lot sooner than you think.

But with chemical rockets, don't hold your breath.

With a VASIMR sytem, it's a bit hard but doable. It would just take a lot of money and development of a speciallized fission reactor for that use, since we have none with that sort of configuration on the shelf. If there happened to be something like that already available, then VASIMR would look very attractive but still need quite a bit of funding just for a stunt Mars mission.

Another thing some people are looking at for Mars missions is positron rocketry. One company is working on that, there is an article about it on NASA's Web site, and it recently got a lot easier to produce positrons in quantity. However, storage bottles for that have not yet been developed, and virtually the only use for them would be in space travel.


LCARS; I read that positron article..very cool. As for the fushion drive the navy is sitting on, I will look into that more since I have some friends high up in the navy...

2200 Tiberious? I think, with how slow we seem to movie, you may be right!!!

Rob
 
2200 Tiberious? I think, with how slow we seem to movie, you may be right!!!

Rob

Yeah, I mean, unless there is a determined effort to colonize it, we won't do it any time soon. And I can't see there being a focused effort on Mars in a long time, especially since the primary mover is the US, and the country will need to work out these political differences and change the way the budget is used. For the foreseeable future, the big problem will be energy, and trying to solve that problem will cost a lot in time and money.

Earlier I mentioned corporations building resorts first before any real colonists move in. You have to think about it logically. Those same corporations will want to colonize moon first, and build businesses there. And we haven't even done that yet.
 
Yep. I tend to agree. We'll go to Mars sometime within the next 30 years, look around, collect some rocks (maybe even drive around in a Mars buggy), and then immediately come back ala the Apollo missions.

Permanant colonization of Mars, however, is still something that will likely be well beyond any of our lifetimes and I think it will be more of the continual issue of economics and politics holding up the progress more so than a lack of technological capability.

Only the reignition of a space race--or the start of a new cold war--might accelerate things much faster, IMO...
 
We can send people to Mars in a decade or so. They have been people planning a "realistic" mission to mars using todays technology. The problem comes with colonists. It's going to be very,very,very expensive to have dome cities in mars. I can't see how they can ever be economically viable. Terraforming is a dream.

So i'll say 2050 for the colonists. That is if the mission to mars in the 30s goes according to plan.
 
I'd say around 2050 we will finally get somebody on Mars. A colony? A hundred years later..
 
Fairly wild guesses:

Manned landings: ~2035 (post return to the Moon, probably the Americans - if they decide they're not interested, probably the Chinese or Indians, but that'd set the whole thing back 20 years, I suspect)

Permanent base: ~2040 (most Mars strategies seem to indicate staying there afterwards)

First 'colonist' (i.e. permanent civilian as opposed to scientist or astronaut, perhaps the family of someone permanently stationed there?): ~2070

Colony becomes self-sustaining: ~2150 (advances in robotic mining, fusion power, larger domes to grow food as the colony expands, etc. enables Mars to end its dependence on imported Earth resources).
 
How about 1988, enough time for the colonist to become estabilised before the eugenics war. In reality, russia is looking outward again, china and lndia only slightly less so, rich nations with expanding populations
(not russia), any of these could be on mars inside of a decade if they pushed, with less money and to be honest less safety concerns than NASA it is possible.
 
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