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Is this the future of technology?

farmkid

Commodore
Commodore
The Future Timeline website has a speculative timeline of what will happen in the future. It's based on current technology and events and makes predictions based on what we know now and where experts think we're going. It's an interesting read; go have a look...

...now that you're back, what do you think? How accurate do you think this is? What do you think is wrong or right?

As for me, some of it is hard for me to imagine actually coming into being. But then again, I'm sure people living decades to centuries ago would have had a hard time picturing our reality as well.
 
The most stark theme of the predictions is the great divide that emerges: on the one hand you'll have highly-advanced societies largely shielded from global environmental catastrophe, and on the other hand there's everyone else, and the "everyone else" will suffer in agony and probably die. This makes the race to modernize in places like China that much more urgent: civilizations that don't keep pace with technology are doomed, not merely in the sense of being less powerful in the global economy, but in that they will be dead.

Some of the medical advances seem a bit fanciful to me. I don't foresee regrowing teeth just in the next few years, or adequate bionic eyes in the next decade. I'd love to be proven wrong, though.

I hope it's not right about the ongoing economic problems and continued environmental collapse. If it does turn out to be right, then the 21st century will end up being the mirror-image of the 20th. Whereas the last century was marked by a hideously brutal and savage first half, and the second half brought enormous prosperity and progress, this century would see a world at the pinnacle of prosperity gradually brought low, closing the century with a world of modest means and limitless suffering. :(
 
The technological singularity, if it happens, is unpredictable in how it will emerge. If it does emerge, everything that happens beyond that time period is inherently unpredictable.
 
The dark era of the universe
The last remaining black hole has evaporated.
From this point onwards the universe is composed only of photons, neutrinos, electrons and positrons - with no way of interacting with each other.
The universe continues to expand forever... but is essentially dead.
:wah::wah:

Such a sad end to a great story

Anyway.. amazing read that puts Gene Roddenberry to shame with its optimism.

This site is extremely optimistic.. it mentions several catastrophic events in the near future such as bioterrorism but always manages to find a way to stave off extinction. It puts us as a race on a path of enlightenment far too fast and i doubt it will happen like written there much less that technology will save us in the immediate future.

What if technology doesn't develop as fast or in the way they predict? And what if some political/economical/racial blocks keep their discoveries for themselves for strategic reasons and conflicts arise over that?

This is what's missing from the entire site.. the human element. We have always found a way to fuck it up and keep the good stuff for ourselves planting the seeds of future bad blood with the behaviour today. Once we get past that and don't nuke/virus each other to death in the next 100 years or so i can see much of that happening with technology removing many needs and shortages such as energy and fresh water so animosities may simmer down because everything to fight over is readily available in masses.

The rest of the site though dealing with developments tens of thousands of years later is an amazing SF read and maybe even a bit scary because humanity as we know it has all but vanished and been replaced with an AI/human hybrid.. i just hope we retain such things as compassion, laughter and love and it won't be stamped out as illogical and unproductive because then humans will be extinct and replaced by something more akin to Borg.
 
That site has an incredibly optimistic view of the future. I pretty much agree with FPAlpha's comments.

There is no way the geopolitical advancements described in the site happen without a war or two. United States ceding territories to Mexico? I don't see how US would ever allow that given how important California is to the US economy. Maybe if LA (Hollywood) and San Francisco (Silicon Valley) and Las Vegas all move to the mid-west.

Also the site is already off on its 2012 prediction of having the first commercial space station be operational.
 
That site has an incredibly optimistic view of the future. I pretty much agree with FPAlpha's comments.

There is no way the geopolitical advancements described in the site happen without a war or two. United States ceding territories to Mexico? I don't see how US would ever allow that given how important California is to the US economy. Maybe if LA (Hollywood) and San Francisco (Silicon Valley) and Las Vegas all move to the mid-west.

Also the site is already off on its 2012 prediction of having the first commercial space station be operational.

If you see it as overly optimistic I think you might have skipped over all the horrible things it also mentions. The flip side of all the advanced technology is the monumental suffering endured by those who won't have access to it. It also speculates that it will take at least a couple centuries to clean up the ecological damage we've wrought since the Industrial Revolution, which sounds about right.
 
2045. The typical home PC of today has an integrated AI system equivalent to over a billion human brains. This machine can think for itself, communicate with its owner and suggest new ideas in ways that surpass even the greatest minds on Earth.
Err... don't buy it.

This is the 21st century version of "We'll all be having flying cars and portable fusion reactors!"
 
Err... don't buy it.

This is the 21st century version of "We'll all be having flying cars and portable fusion reactors!"

When you think about it, we could have had flying cars and portable fusion reactors today, along with moon bases and orbital complexes - that much was even admitted by scientists.
There's just no monetary incentive to use them in a wide-spread basis because it's much more profitable to keep putting out revisions of revisions upon revisions for the next decade or so before people finally come to their senses that they are being duped - though the 'official' word is 'we don't have the money' (which is a load of garbage).
Oh yes, and let's not forget that artificially induced economic problems are even further fracturing the world apart.
We can't even unite globally for 'betterment of mankind'.
Technology isn't the problem here, people are.

A;though tell me, just how exactly are things radically different from what we had 40 years ago?
Internet and more powerful/efficient computers aside, things are effectively the same.
You can't honestly tell me that what we are seeing in the technological field today can be called 'innovation' or even less so 'evolution' - that would be retarded, because as a species, we already had the capacity to surpass this 'level' of tech decades ago what with all the discoveries and things we actually put into limited practical use (because of arbitrary issues such as 'cost', 'money' and 'profit') over the past century alone.
 
If you see it as overly optimistic I think you might have skipped over all the horrible things it also mentions. The flip side of all the advanced technology is the monumental suffering endured by those who won't have access to it. It also speculates that it will take at least a couple centuries to clean up the ecological damage we've wrought since the Industrial Revolution, which sounds about right.
I don't think I skipped through too much. I am just curious why it would fail to predict the inevitable wars that would come when there are indeed too many "have not" people in the world.

And your avatar is still freaking freakish.
 
Err... don't buy it.

This is the 21st century version of "We'll all be having flying cars and portable fusion reactors!"

When you think about it, we could have had flying cars and portable fusion reactors today, along with moon bases and orbital complexes - that much was even admitted by scientists.

The technology is there for flying cars. The biggest hurdles Terrafugia faced in developing the Transition was regulatory, not technical.

The main reason why flying cars have not been more popular is because (a) not enough people have pilots' licenses, which is mainly because (b) flying lessons cost too much.

Normally, economies of scale would drive down the cost of personal airplanes (or plane/car hybrids like the Transition) as more people adopted them. I find it rather surprising that this hasn't happened.
 
Although modern planes are very safe, I don't think they will ever be as safe as cars can be in the hands of an ordinary driver. Most car accidents are not fatal, and if your car runs out of fuel or otherwise fails, it's usually just going to roll to a stop (and you can most likely brake your way to a stop, too.) Obviously, there are more extreme circumstances (like a wheel coming off) but most mechanical failures in cars don't carry a high risk of injury/death to the defective car or other vehicles.

If you're flying and have a catastrophic failure, you may simply fall out of the sky. Good luck surviving that. But given how flying is regulated, at least your odds of killing other people aren't as high.
 
The technology is there for flying cars. The biggest hurdles Terrafugia faced in developing the Transition was regulatory, not technical.

The main reason why flying cars have not been more popular is because (a) not enough people have pilots' licenses, which is mainly because (b) flying lessons cost too much.

Normally, economies of scale would drive down the cost of personal airplanes (or plane/car hybrids like the Transition) as more people adopted them. I find it rather surprising that this hasn't happened.

The technology might be there but it is meaningless and absolutely impractical. There are so many other problems that we aren't yet mature enough to handle. Think of all the people who are speeding, driving drunk, failing to obey traffic signals, and illegally tuning their cars. Think how much worse flying cars would make those problems.

Also, there is a serious perception problem with safety regarding the flying car technology. What a regular car breaks down or stalls, you pull over or simply sit there. What happens when a flying car breaks down or stalls?

It would take an entire generation (or two) to get people used to the idea of having flying cars after it has been proven commercially viable. We are a long ways away from it. This goes for jet packs as well. We have them, but we still can't have them.
 
Flying cars? With propellers for wheels? Isn't that extremely loud? Don't they need much more fuel than normal cars? And what breaking distance does a flying car have? How many children's heads are chopped off? Are skyscraper windows flying car safe? And so forth. Seriously, flying cars is one of the most unfeasible ideas out there.

Flying cars would be more sensible with some anti-gravity magic, and when they can instantly stop. And stuff.
 
Flying cars? With propellers for wheels? Isn't that extremely loud? Don't they need much more fuel than normal cars? And what breaking distance does a flying car have? How many children's heads are chopped off? Are skyscraper windows flying car safe? And so forth. Seriously, flying cars is one of the most unfeasible ideas out there.

Flying cars would be more sensible with some anti-gravity magic, and when they can instantly stop. And stuff.

Allow me to be clear: In my view, 2- and 4-seater airplanes are essentially flying cars. They already exist and are in common use, just not by many people. Adding a highway capability is just sealing the definition.

Some people won't accept "flying cars" until they have VTOL and any old high school student can operate them after 10 minutes practice in a parking lot, but that's not the definition I'm using.

Fuel consumption for a plane is measured in gallons per hour rather than miles per gallon, but assuming calm winds, a comparison can be made. It's true plane fuel economy is lagging behind cars, but it isn't so terrible. Consider a Cessna 172 travelling at 110 knots (typical cruise). It will burn around 8GPH, and in an hour will travel 110 nautical miles (about 126 statute miles). This is an effective efficiency of 16 MPG. It's possible to lean the mixture at altitude to increase that.

As far as skyscrapers go, a year or two ago someone intentionally crashed a Piper into an IRS building. The plane was destroyed, but the only damage to the building was the (empty) office it struck. Small planes simply don't have enough mass or fuel to be all that much of a hazard. A bus would make a better terrorist weapon.

Although modern planes are very safe, I don't think they will ever be as safe as cars can be in the hands of an ordinary driver. Most car accidents are not fatal, and if your car runs out of fuel or otherwise fails, it's usually just going to roll to a stop (and you can most likely brake your way to a stop, too.) Obviously, there are more extreme circumstances (like a wheel coming off) but most mechanical failures in cars don't carry a high risk of injury/death to the defective car or other vehicles.

If you're flying and have a catastrophic failure, you may simply fall out of the sky. Good luck surviving that. But given how flying is regulated, at least your odds of killing other people aren't as high.

Unless you have full-scale structural disintegration----possible, but highly unlikely unless the pilot has made some serious errors in judgment----you will not simply "fall out the sky". You will glide the plane towards an open area if possible. It's even possible to "settle" a plane (relatively) safely onto a forest canopy if necessary. In-flight fires are another rare hazard which could hinder the pilot's ability to land safely.

Your point about regulation is sort of right and sort of wrong. On the one hand, the regulations requiring pilots to be familiar with and practice emergency operations means that the chances of them accidentally killing people on the ground are low. Air Traffic Control will not necessarily be a factor in that, however, which is what I think you were implying. Many planes fly under visual flight rules without ever talking to ATC. Some don't even have radios. In fact, Light Sport pilots----who may operate the Terrafugia Transition, it is classified as an LSA----are forbidden from operating within controlled airspace (except class E).

The technology might be there but it is meaningless and absolutely impractical. There are so many other problems that we aren't yet mature enough to handle. Think of all the people who are speeding, driving drunk, failing to obey traffic signals, and illegally tuning their cars. Think how much worse flying cars would make those problems.

Speeding: Rarely a problem. Only a few bits of airspace have speed limits, and most piston planes can't even achieve those speeds.

Driving drunk, failing to obey instructions or airspace restrictions: One has to rely on pilot discipline and common sense here, same as for driving. The penalties for violations would be severe, of course.

Illegal tuning: Slap an "Experimental" registration on the plane and you're good to go, pretty much. (Regulations do require that all major modification work be done by a license Airframe & Powerplant mechanic. Pilots are only allowed to do basic preventative maintenance such as oil changes. But if you happen to be both, cool!)

Also, there is a serious perception problem with safety regarding the flying car technology. What a regular car breaks down or stalls, you pull over or simply sit there. What happens when a flying car breaks down or stalls?
Stalls, in the aerodynamic sense, are no big deal for most designs of plane. Spins are more dangerous, but stall/spin awareness is part of basic training.

As far as engine failures go, as I said the vehicle will glide. It's up to the pilot to get it safely onto the ground at that point, but it's not an insurmountable task. In the worst case, some small planes are starting to be equipped with airframe parachutes these days. If all else fails, pull it.
 
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Stalls, in the aerodynamic sense, are no big deal for most designs of plane. Spins are more dangerous, but stall/spin awareness is part of basic training.

As far as engine failures go, as I said the vehicle will glide. It's up to the pilot to get it safely onto the ground at that point, but it's not an insurmountable task. In the worst case, some small planes are starting to be equipped with airframe parachutes these days. If all else fails, pull it.

Okay, you are describing a small, winged airplane requiring long run ways to take off and land. You are not describing an air car as people usually understand it to be. Think how flying cars are depicted in every science fiction. These flying cars can take off and land vertically, has no wings, can fit into your average garage, and rely on exotic methods (no propellers) to achieve motion.
 
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