How Improbable

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Sci-fi comes in all shapes and sizes, but a common practice is to extrapolate from our own world of today into the future, having many adventures along the way.

Some of the more seemingly unlikely events said to have occurred in sci-fi:

- Heterosexuality becomes near-extinct in Haldeman's The Forever War.

- World War III occurs in David Brin's Earth, featuring Switzerland against ... everybody else.

- The United States murders all of Europe in Stapledon's Last and First Men.

Contributions welcome.

 

[Greg Cox]

Earth becomes . . . a planet of the apes!

 

[Myasishchev]

Any SF book or film where a NATO/WP nuclear exchange actually kills almost all humans or nearly completely destroys civilization, arising either from the assumption that substantial numbers of nukes are aimed at Brazil and Africa, or, less charmingly, that Brazil and Africa have no civilization or resources.

Earth becomes . . . a planet of the apes!

I wonder how unlikely it would be for a gorilla-descended sapient to come into being, if humans were culled of 99.9% of their present numbers. I suppose more like in the 1960s, when there weren't ten thousand gorillas left alive; but they say humans went through a similar bottleneck, and we appear mostly fine.

 

[Greg Cox]

A mysterious plague turns everyone in the world into a vampire.

(I Am Legend by Richard Matheson.)

 

[Silvercrest]

they say humans went through a similar bottleneck, and we appear mostly fine.

All that inbreeding would explain a few things.


Unlikely sci-fi? A Federation with matter-energy conversion capabilities that can beam things from one place to another, create objects and people out of thin air, duplicate anything, etc.... yet still conducts warfare by hurling torpedoes at each other, and still practices medicine by transplanting organs and injecting chemicals.

These people apparently have no idea what they have. It's like a guy who owns a car and is fascinated by the turn signal, but doesn't know what the keys are for.

 

[Mistral]

The Muslim religion sweeps all of Europe under its heel by 2025.-Kaliphate

The population of New York swells to 40 million. - Soylent Green

The Democrats hatch an evil plot to usurp the Presidency and turn America into a dictatorship. - Empire by Orson Scott Card

 

[RandyS]

Earth becomes . . . a planet of the apes!

I thought it was already.

 

[Canadave]

- World War III occurs in David Brin's Earth, featuring Switzerland against ... everybody else.

I read this one recently, and was also a bit baffled by this bit. Especially considering he did a reasonably good job of predicting other things; like the societal impact the Internet would have.

 

[Argus Skyhawk]

Unlikely sci-fi? A Federation with matter-energy conversion capabilities that can beam things from one place to another, create objects and people out of thin air, duplicate anything, etc.... yet still conducts warfare by hurling torpedoes at each other, and still practices medicine by transplanting organs and injecting chemicals.

Yes, I thought for years that teleportation technology could be used for much more than what we see transporters do in Star Trek. Surgeons could use miniature transporters all the time, I'm sure.

 

[Silvercrest]

Not to mention replicators. Romulan prisoner needs a blood transfusion? Don't try to convince your resident Klingon to submit; just dial up "Romulan blood type R" and beam it right into his veins. Your Ferengi ensign had his leg blown off? Don't worry about clunky artificial legs; punch up another leg from his medical replicator file and attach it. No worries about tissue rejection or phantom pain; it's his own leg. Not to mention the question of a certain captain's artificial heart....

Idiots.

 

[Switch]

The Muslim religion sweeps all of Europe under its heel by 2025.-Kaliphate

The population of New York swells to 40 million. - Soylent Green

The Democrats hatch an evil plot to usurp the Presidency and turn America into a dictatorship. - Empire by Orson Scott Card

Exactly the kind of stuff I was looking for.

Any SF book or film where a NATO/WP nuclear exchange actually kills almost all humans or nearly completely destroys civilization, arising either from the assumption that substantial numbers of nukes are aimed at Brazil and Africa, or, less charmingly, that Brazil and Africa have no civilization or resources.

Nuclear winter killing all the vegetation and starving everyone to death?

- World War III occurs in David Brin's Earth, featuring Switzerland against ... everybody else.

I read this one recently, and was also a bit baffled by this bit. Especially considering he did a reasonably good job of predicting other things; like the societal impact the Internet would have.

The edition I first read had an interview with Brin at the end, IIRC he said something like he wanted to throw a curve ball in that respect; I think he was going for novelty over plausibility.

 

[Australis]

still conducts warfare by hurling torpedoes at each other,

Beaming them in isn't an option, that's what shields are supposed to stop.

 

[Sephiroth]

what, Ensign Redshirt has 4th degree burns and lacerations from the Ferengi Shrapnel'Splode(tm) console we keep buying for our ships and only has moments to live? Scotty, beam him up and back down right

 

[Silvercrest]

still conducts warfare by hurling torpedoes at each other,

Beaming them in isn't an option, that's what shields are supposed to stop.

So? Transport 50 photon torpedoes simultaneously just outside the perimeter of his shields and see how well they hold up. Better yet, don't bother rematerializing the torpedoes at all, just send all the energy that they would have delivered. Much simpler.

There is no reason a transporter couldn't do this.

 

[Asbo Zaprudder]

Humans have a medium-sized moonbase by 1980. (UFO)

Humans have a large moonbase by 1999. (Space: 1999)

Humans have a large moonbase as part of an advanced space program by 2001. (2001: A Space Odyssey)

Humans don't land on the Moon until the late 21st century. (Fobidden Planet)

Humans landed on the Moon in 1969 and couldn't be arsed to do anything else ever again. (My prediction)

 

[Ensign_Redshirt]

Any SF book or film where a NATO/WP nuclear exchange actually kills almost all humans or nearly completely destroys civilization, arising either from the assumption that substantial numbers of nukes are aimed at Brazil and Africa, or, less charmingly, that Brazil and Africa have no civilization or resources.

A trope largely averted by Vernor Vinge in his short stories Apartness and Conquest of Default (both set in the same universe). The southern hemisphere is hit pretty badly by fallout, plagues and the complete breakdown of the world economy following WWIII, but after a while they stabilize themselves and Australia, Brazil, and a post-Apartheid South Africa emerge as the new world powers. They managed to survive the apocalypse, although things did look pretty grim for a while.

- World War III occurs in David Brin's Earth, featuring Switzerland against ... everybody else.

I read this one recently, and was also a bit baffled by this bit. Especially considering he did a reasonably good job of predicting other things; like the societal impact the Internet would have.

Reminds me of Bruce Sterling's habit of creating implausible future superpowers. This includes Singapore (Islands in the Net), Indonesia (Holy Fire), and the Netherlands (Distraction). I suppose he simply picks some random country all the time. Granted, Indonesia ist at least somewhat in the realm of possibility.

 

[Switch]

Granted, Indonesia ist at least somewhat in the realm of possibility.

Well within. Indonesia will likely overtake Japan as the 7th largest economy by 2050.