How far are we behind?

[RobertScorpio]

Based on where TREK says our technology/humanity will be in the 24th century, how far behind schedule to you think we are? Yes, at any moment somethng could happen, but taking a look at our real world, how long do you think it will be, what century in essence, until we are at the level TNG was socially and technically?

Rob
Scorpio

 

[JayTheTrekkie]

Well, perhaps flying cars (just a few feet off the ground) would come first and including android-like robots would come then...probably not until like between 2020-2030. Just a guess

 

[anais]

I have my doubts regarding the idea that we will ever be at a point where a comparison matches up. And I'm not talking about the small details which will always be different. I think the future will be very different from anything we can imagine, including Star Trek. Individual aspects of the future will bear a resemblance, if only by chance, but not the big picture. So all in all, I think we're on a different schedule than the Star Trek one.

 

[C.E. Evans]

Personally, I think we're about 1000 years behind the kind of society depicted in the 24th-Century, in which Earth is part of some interplanetary alliance. That is assuming, that we'll one day discover warp drive and meet extraterrestrials.

Something that's more alot more scaled down (no aliens, no warp drive, but impulse-powered ships) and confined to our Sol System might be possible by the 24th-Century, IMO...

 

[erastus25]

I don't think we're that far behind at all. Technology has been increasing at an exponential rate and there's no reason to think it won't keep doing so. 100 years ago if you told someone we'd land on the moon by 1969 he/she would have told you that was crazy talk. If things keep going like this then there's no reason to believe we won't catch up with Trek by the 24th Century.

However, the world peace issue is a little more questionable. I don't know enough about history to discuss any specific trends, but my instinct is that we haven't become less confrontation for hundreds of years. We've simply come up with weapons that make it easier to kill one another.

 

[Carpe Occasio]

Star Trek is not in our near, or far, future. Sure we went to the moon in 1969, but we can't reproduce that feat today (so says NASA, not until 2020 at least). And yes, we have technology, but nothing like Star Trek (not even close). Warp drive, transporters (at this point labs like CERN can only transport atomic particles a few feet and they're not even sure how it works), holodecks, replicators, shuttlecraft (not space shuttles, shuttlecraft), phasers, tractor beams, anti-gravity (which according to physics is impossible), etc., are still just TV tech, with no real hope of becoming reality. Back in the 60's we were promised jet packs, flying cars, space tourism, and more. Today we have microwaves, iPhones and the Internet. No jet packs (yes they exist, but only a few and they fly for less than a minute), no flying cars (yes, there have been attempts, but nothing practical, not even Moellers prototype actually flys), no space tourism (yes, Spaceship1 has set the stage, but for sub-orbital flights, not for Hilton Hotels and Howard Johnsons in space). Star Trek is a great dream but it's a long, long way off.

 

[AlboOfBorg]

I think it all boils down to one thing: space transport. We certainly are doing well in the computer technology department (a.k.a. computers are getting smaller and faster) but we haven't a clue how to obtain interstellar travel yet. Once we accomplish that then I think we'll be on our way to colonizing other worlds and dealing with friendly or hostile aliens. I think anti-gravity can be achieved but along with transporters, replicators, tractor beams, phasers, etc. we don't know if these technologies are even possible so we can't say for certain that Star Trek technology will ever be realized.

 

[Timo]

I guess the comparison is a bit unfair in that the Trek folks get assistance from space aliens after 2063, whereas we may well live in an universe where the nearest space aliens are a hundred million years away.

As for the space travel feats the Trek folks achieved before Vulcans arrived, we're probably about half a century to a full century behind. They had practical interplanetary travel in the 1980s-90s, while we might get it in the 2050s if everything pans out plus we get a few unpredictable breakthroughs. They had practical interstellar probes at the turn of the millennium, while ours might get launched at the next turn of the century. Granted that they apparently didn't have a big moonbase in Cochrane's time yet, and didn't really colonize Mars until 2103, but trips to those locations were still more or less routine from the looks of it. They even did what sounds like a manned mission to Saturn in 2009.

Timo Saloniemi

 

[Triskelion]

Technology will take care of itself. It's the human cultures getting along despite evolutionary instincts that cause us to fear difference and compete for resources that is the difficulty. The way to both respect various cultures, while simultaneously developing a global culture, preferably a rational one rather than an ethnocentric or nationalistic one. The phenomena of culture borne of scarcity and competition for resources is still very much a part of many world cultures; as is dehumanization and injustice. Some people are very happy to continue living with tribal delineations and can't even acknowledge the humanity of other races, let alone equality.

Global Corporate organizations that dance between international regulations for the acquisition of private profit; exploitation of societies by tying said profits to patriotism; exploitation of the middle class to fund societies and fill coffers of the wealthy; overproduction and outsourcing creating inflation and recession; and every so often a nice big fat cleansing fire to stimulate economy and thin the herd a bit.... I don't even have a point.

If there is any technology that characterizes Star Trek, besides starships, it's the replicator. The elimination of poverty, as Deanna Troi told Samuel Clemens, took a lot of the other problems with it.

But as I see it, one very real limiting factor, is education.

Maybe the entire premise is flawed. One guy who wants to break the rules for his own gain can endanger an entire society. Maybe the future looks more like a William Gibson story: multivariate, chaotic, and dangerous.

Because I don't see the enlightened human cultures eliminating those cultures who would like to have everyone else eliminated. It's faulty logic, using evil to bring about a world of good.


I wish there were a society now whose members all lived by a voluntary code of human worth and value, honesty and productivity. But without money, who cleans the train stations?

 

[BigC]

Technology wise I would estimate at the current rate of progress Five to Eight hundred years. Socially we are further away. I fear it will take a decimating world war before mankind finally pulls it's collective head out of it's arse and learns to live together in peace.

But as the old saying go's...A journey of a Thousand miles begins with a single step.

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

The world will never be like "Star Trek."

 

[kv1at3485]

For the magic tech, like transporters, and warp drive I'm not expecting those to roll around ever. On the other hand I'm pretty sure in terms of computers, cybernetics, and stuff like that Star Trek will look positively archaic when the real 24th century rolls around.

(And if you subscribe to the "tech singularity in 50 years", well, then Star Trek is definitely peanuts. Period.)

Socially/culturally we'll never get to where Star Trek's UFP is. Which is a good thing. Only a person willing to ignore the many queer unfortunate aspects of that state of affairs would willingly want to go there, and even then they'd find it wouldn't last very long.

 

[SeanMcC]

I don't think we're that far behind at all. Technology has been increasing at an exponential rate and there's no reason to think it won't keep doing so. 100 years ago if you told someone we'd land on the moon by 1969 he/she would have told you that was crazy talk. If things keep going like this then there's no reason to believe we won't catch up with Trek by the 24th Century.

However, the world peace issue is a little more questionable. I don't know enough about history to discuss any specific trends, but my instinct is that we haven't become less confrontation for hundreds of years. We've simply come up with weapons that make it easier to kill one another.

Star Trek is not in our near, or far, future. Sure we went to the moon in 1969, but we can't reproduce that feat today (so says NASA, not until 2020 at least). And yes, we have technology, but nothing like Star Trek (not even close). Warp drive, transporters (at this point labs like CERN can only transport atomic particles a few feet and they're not even sure how it works), holodecks, replicators, shuttlecraft (not space shuttles, shuttlecraft), phasers, tractor beams, anti-gravity (which according to physics is impossible), etc., are still just TV tech, with no real hope of becoming reality. Back in the 60's we were promised jet packs, flying cars, space tourism, and more. Today we have microwaves, iPhones and the Internet. No jet packs (yes they exist, but only a few and they fly for less than a minute), no flying cars (yes, there have been attempts, but nothing practical, not even Moellers prototype actually flys), no space tourism (yes, Spaceship1 has set the stage, but for sub-orbital flights, not for Hilton Hotels and Howard Johnsons in space). Star Trek is a great dream but it's a long, long way off.

Sad but true, guys.

I wish NASA would pull their finger out. We should be exploring our solar system in manned shuttles by now. All these decades waiting, just to get to Mars?!? How about manned missions to Neptune or Pluto? How about exploring outside the solar system?

We should keep on advancing and do anti-matter experiments, warp drive or at least impulse-type propulsion, artificial gravity, replicators and transporters. That should be the priority.

We've come a long way in the last 100 years, we have to maintain that improvement and advancement.

But it seems unless we do meet a race like the Vulcans, Humanity is doomed.

 

[Sci]

I wish NASA would pull their finger out. We should be exploring our solar system in manned shuttles by now. All these decades waiting, just to get to Mars?!? How about manned missions to Neptune or Pluto? How about exploring outside the solar system?

To be fair, that's not NASA's fault. NASA is a federal agency that is accountable to Congress and the President; they get their budget from the first and their head from the second. And if Congress and the President don't make space exploration a priority, that's because there's no outcry from the public for it. We do live in a democracy, after all. Blame the electorate.

But it seems unless we do meet a race like the Vulcans, Humanity is doomed.

See, this is what I hate about Trekkies. For a group of supposedly imaginative sci-fi fans who watch a show about a better future, we can be such a goddamn pessimistic, misanthropic lot!

Humanity isn't doomed. (At least, no more so than any lifeform is, what with the Heat Death of the Universe looming in the distant future and all.) For everything that's bad about humanity, there's also plenty that's good. And as much as people like to complain that we're not the perfect constitutional liberal democracy yet, the fact remains that our type of society -- one based on freedom, equality, and self-governance -- is a relatively new kind of society that's existed for, really, less than fifty years, if that. Meanwhile, violent autocracy has existed for centuries (and hasn't led to the destruction of the human race yet). Give us some time, eh? Have some faith in people.

 

[MiralParis]

I have my doubts regarding the idea that we will ever be at a point where a comparison matches up. And I'm not talking about the small details which will always be different. I think the future will be very different from anything we can imagine, including Star Trek. Individual aspects of the future will bear a resemblance, if only by chance, but not the big picture. So all in all, I think we're on a different schedule than the Star Trek one.

I agree 100%. While I like the idea of a Star Trek future I believe ours will be quite different. Our experiences and events will be different than those that shaped the Star Trek future though some may be similar.

Of course, it is nice to hope our species will someday be as enlightened as they are in Star Trek. We have the potential but whether we capitalize on that potential is the real issue. I think things are going to get really, really bad before they start to get better.

 

[PhoenixIreland]

I think were ahead of schedule in technology if you look at TOS.

Socially, were not only behind, were going backwards

 

[watermelony2k]

I see things turning out more along the lines of Firefly.

 

[Triskelion]

Firefly was pretty cool and realistic. If we even get off this rock.

 

[Wonderlust King]

Considering never did end up having that eugenics war I think we are pretty off schedule.

 

[PhoenixIreland]

or a Third world war, though we did come damm close in 1983.

Suppose it's still possable for one to be caused by some bizzaro Russia-China allaince, but I don't see how it would benfit them.